Welcome back everyone... today’s level matters because the S&P 500 Hurst baseline and the as-of projection are sitting at the same number, 7511.6 , so this is one of those sessions where we can judge strength or weakness very cleanly from here.
Right now the market is basically right on top of that Hurst baseline. In the projection set for July 31, the as-of line shows ProjectedClose 7511.6 , with projected resistance at 7534 and projected support at 7489 . The same day’s history row shows a projected band running roughly from 7445.8 to 7528.6 , so price is pressing the upper side of that near-term envelope.
Looking ahead, the aggregated ProjectedClose path leans a bit firmer early next week, rising to about 7532.5 on August 3, 7546.3 on August 4, and peaking near 7551.3 on August 5 before easing back toward 7520 to 7529 into August 10 through 13. That says the short-term path still favors an initial push higher, then a pause or pullback, not a straight line.
The next momentum turns are also important. The forecast flags HIGH reversal markers on August 4 through 6, then LOW markers on August 11 through 13. That gives us a pretty clear roadmap: watch for upside pressure into early next week, then see whether any dip into the second week holds and resets the trend.
On support and resistance, the model has near-term projected support stepping from 7508 to 7525 into August 5, then softening back toward 7492 to 7499 by August 12 and 13. Projected resistance climbs from 7557 to 7577 over that same early window. Separately, the daily pivot structure for July 31 shows R1 7510.5 , R2 7573.5 , and S1 7344.8 .
For bottom setups, the key context is that July 29 logged a bottom setup , and July 30 then printed a momentum turn up . That lines up with the rebound into July 31 rather than a breakdown continuation.
Under the hood, the shorter cycles are mixed but the intermediate components are doing more of the lifting. On August 4, the 12-day and 17-day contributions are positive, the 46-day is slightly negative, and the 74-day is strongly positive, while the 204-day remains a drag and the 280-day is a modest positive. So the rally case is being helped more by shorter and intermediate swings than by the longer cycle stack.
Seasonality is constructive here too. Hedgtrade shows the S&P 500’s short-term day-of-month seasonality as BULLISH , and the aggregated seasonality as BULLISH . At the same time, the Trading Zone is RANGE , short-term direction is LONG , and short-term order book and smart money both read BULLISH .
For the next couple of weeks, the bigger upside projection extends toward 7667.9 by August 21 and roughly 7734.0 by September 3 on the aggregated ProjectedClose path. After that, the model rolls over, slipping toward 7582.6 by September 18 and then down toward 7338.0 by September 30.
And if you zoom out three to six months, the longer path weakens further before stabilizing. The projection drops to about 7285.3 on October 5, then recovers into early November, reaching around 7554.3 by November 11, before fading back toward the mid- 7470s into early December. So compared with today’s 7511.6 , the model shows a short- to medium-term rise first, then a later downswing, and only a partial recovery after that.
What I’d watch next is simple: can the index stay above 7489 and reclaim through the 7534 to 7557 area? If yes, the early-August push stays in play. If not, then that August 11 to 13 low window becomes much more important as the next decision point.