The index closed at 7,730.8 , while the Hurst baseline is 7,736.1 . The as-of reference level is also 7,736.1, with immediate projected resistance near 7,760 and support around 7,712 .
Now let’s look at the future projection using the aggregated ProjectedClose column. The model points to a modest decline first, toward 7,716 to 7,702 between August 12 and August 14. After that, it projects a rebound toward roughly 7,752 around August 20 and 21.
That rebound appears temporary. The next leg of the projection trends lower, with ProjectedClose falling toward approximately 7,655 by August 28 and 7,631 by August 31. Into early September, the model reaches the 7,500 to 7,600 area, with a projected low near 7,497 around September 15 to 18.
Momentum is an important warning here. The data marks a momentum turn down on August 11. The short cycles are starting to lose strength, while the larger 60-day and 206-day contributions remain negative. That combination favors a choppy bounce followed by renewed pressure rather than a straight-line advance.
There are also low reversal markers in the August 12 to 14 window, but traders should treat that as a potential stabilization area, not a confirmed bottom. Earlier bottom setups occurred when price closed below its lower Bollinger Band while volatility expanded. The current setup does not yet show that same extreme condition.
Volatility remains relatively contained, with the near-term projected range running from roughly 7,693 to 7,780 . That supports a controlled pullback scenario, although a break below 7,712 would weaken the short-term structure.
Looking further out, the three-to-six-month projection remains below today’s level. ProjectedClose falls toward the 7,380 area in early December before recovering toward approximately 7,463 by December 15—still about 270 points below the current baseline.
So the roadmap is simple: watch 7,760 on the upside and 7,712 below. A move above resistance could extend the rebound, but the Hurst cycle still favors a lower projection into September and again toward year-end. Also keep an eye on the July CPI release scheduled for August 12, because that macro event could amplify the projected volatility. ([bls.gov](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/home.htm?keyCode=IDMA2400&utm_source=openai))
Current web sources: CPI Home : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics