The World Cup on the Market: Is There an Opportunity for Profit?

Economic Impact of the World Cup

FIFA analysts project that the upcoming World Cup in the USA and Mexico in mid-2026 could generate over $30 billion in economic activity. However, this estimate is based on the assumption of a significant influx of wealthy tourists, which is uncertain given recent trends in US tourism.

In 2025, the USA saw a decline in tourist numbers, with 68.3 million visitors, a 6% drop from 2024 and a 15% decrease from the record high in 2018. While tourism contributes only about 3% to the US GDP, certain sectors, particularly the hotel industry, are expressing concerns over low reservation levels, with reports indicating that 80% of hoteliers are experiencing disappointing bookings.

Ticket Sales and Attendance Expectations

FIFA claims that ticket sales have surpassed 5 million, exceeding the combined sales from the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. However, historical data suggests that the actual number of visiting fans is often less than half of the total spectators at the event. This raises questions about the anticipated economic benefits and the actual impact on local businesses.

Industry-Specific Impacts

Airlines

Airlines are expected to see increased demand due to the influx of fans, but profitability may be challenged by high jet fuel prices.

Car Rental Companies

Car rentals are likely to benefit from the need for transportation among visitors, but the industry faces significant debt challenges.

Hotels

While hotel chains may see a slight increase in revenue, the limited geographical scope of the event means that the overall impact on large global chains will be minimal.

Bookmakers

Sports betting companies are positioned to benefit from the World Cup, with the deregulation of the industry in the US leading to increased demand. Companies like DraftKings may see significant gains, especially given their recent financial performance.

Apparel Manufacturers

Sportswear brands like Nike and Adidas are expected to see increased sales during the World Cup, with projections indicating a potential 4% rise in annual sales.

Market Reactions and Historical Trends

Historically, the World Cup has had a negligible impact on major stock indices, with the S&P 500 showing minimal negative returns during the event. Analysts are cautious about the potential for surprises in market performance related to the World Cup, particularly given the mixed signals from various sectors.

Conclusion

While the World Cup is a significant event, its influence on financial markets is expected to be limited. Investors should focus on specific sectors and companies that may benefit from the event, such as short-term rental companies and bookmakers, while remaining aware of the broader economic context and potential disappointments.

Analyst: Kamil Szczepański