Daily, weekly & monthly multi-asset research across US equities & ETFs, global indices, metals, forex, commodities, and crypto — subscription alerts by ticker & trading signal services
Global Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Developments
Recent macroeconomic data and central bank decisions are shaping market sentiment worldwide:
- China Inflation Data: Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeded expectations, signaling stronger consumer inflation, while Producer Price Index (PPI) underperformed forecasts, creating uncertainty about China's near-term economic trajectory.
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): The RBNZ held interest rates steady at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations and mirroring the Reserve Bank of Australia's stance, resulting in muted market volatility.
- Federal Reserve Outlook: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes reveal a cautious approach to rate cuts, with divided opinions on timing. Market expectations for a July 30 rate cut stand at 93%, but some Fed members emphasize the need for more clarity on inflation and economic activity.
- US Dollar and Treasury Yields: The US dollar shows modest gains against G10 currencies, while 10-year Treasury yields have risen ahead of auctions but recently fell below 4.34%, reflecting mixed investor sentiment.
- European Economic Data: Eurozone data releases, including Producer Price Index (PPI) and unemployment rates, are expected to show modest growth and steady unemployment, unlikely to alter ECB policy significantly.
- UK Economic Policy: Investors await Chancellor Rachel Reeves' speech for clarity on tax policies and growth measures, especially regarding banking sector taxes.
Trade and Geopolitical Developments
- US Tariffs and Trade Policy: The US government announced a 50% tariff on copper imports effective August 1, justified by national security concerns. This tariff targets imports mainly from Chile and raises concerns about inflation and manufacturing costs. Additionally, a 50% tariff on Brazil was imposed due to digital restrictions affecting US companies.
- Donald Trump's Political Statements: Trump advocates for Fed rate cuts and announced trade policy changes, including releasing seven countries from certain trade decisions. He also banned Wall Street institutions from purchasing single-family homes, impacting the housing market.
- EU-US Trade Talks: Negotiations aim to protect the EU auto industry through tariff cuts, import quotas, and export credits, with a goal to avoid new US tariffs that could harm EU competitiveness.
- Venezuela Regime Change: The US operation removing President Maduro has led to optimism among US oil majors about access to Venezuelan oil reserves, impacting energy stocks positively.
- China-US Trade Relations: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce plans to meet US trade officials in early August to discuss ongoing trade issues.
Equity Markets and Sector Performance
Global equity markets show mixed but generally positive trends with sector-specific highlights:
- US Indices: The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 have reached new highs, with the Dow approaching the historic 50,000 mark. The Nasdaq 100 formed a golden cross, signaling potential upward momentum, especially in technology stocks.
- European Markets: The FTSE 100 hit record highs driven by miners and energy stocks, while European PMIs showed slight weakness. Hong Kong's IPO market is robust, raising HK$107 billion in H1 2025, the highest globally.
- Sector Highlights:
- Technology: Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC show strong performance, with TSMC reporting record revenues and bullish institutional inflows.
- Energy: US energy stocks surged post-Venezuela operation; refiners and oilfield services are favored amid supply concerns.
- Financials: Mixed results with some banks at all-time highs; regulatory scrutiny and political actions impact dividend policies.
- Retail: Mixed earnings with Costco upgraded due to strong consumer spending; volatility expected ahead.
- Biotech & Pharma: Recent pullbacks but ongoing collaborations and drug developments support the sector.
| Index | Change | % Change | Last Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials | +622.01 | +1.28% | 49,000 |
| S&P 500 | +47.10 | +0.69% | 6,905 |
| Nasdaq | +201.19 | +0.87% | 23,437 |
| Russell 2000 | +23.27 | +0.94% | 2,532 |
Commodities and Energy Markets
- Copper: Copper prices surged nearly 10% over two days, reaching near all-time highs due to strong demand drivers such as electrification, AI data centers, and industrial reshoring. The US faces structural copper shortages, and the impending 50% tariff may increase costs for manufacturers. Copper remains a critical commodity amid the energy transition.
- Oil: Oil prices are rising, supported by geopolitical developments and supply concerns. US plans to import Venezuelan crude worth up to $2 billion are expected to increase supply. WTI and Brent oil show bullish technical outlooks with key resistance levels targeted.
- Natural Gas: Natural gas prices face bearish pressure due to cooler weather forecasts and low demand, with prices testing new lows.
- Precious Metals: Gold prices declined over 1% due to profit-taking but remain supported by weaker US employment data and expectations of Fed rate cuts. Silver prices surged in 2025 due to supply constraints and Fed rate cuts but face volatility from regulatory margin hikes.
Cryptocurrency and Digital Assets
- Bitcoin briefly reached a new all-time high of $111,900 before correcting to $111,000, reflecting increased risk appetite.
- Ethereum showed gains, while inflows into crypto investment products like IBIT continue, despite some dips in ETHA.
Investment Platforms and Strategies
Modern investment platforms are democratizing access to financial markets by offering:
- Low fees and no inactivity charges, enhancing net returns.
- Regulated environments providing investor protection.
- Technological integration allowing seamless switching between trading environments.
- Support for diversified strategies including active management, long-term holding, and risk management.
Investors are encouraged to stay informed, leverage technology, and adapt strategies to evolving market conditions for optimal outcomes.
Upcoming Economic Events and Earnings
- US jobless claims, CPI, PPI, retail sales, and manufacturing PMI data releases are expected to influence market direction.
- Major earnings reports from companies such as TSM, Netflix, Costco, and financial institutions will provide insights into sector health.
- European data including German factory orders, Eurozone unemployment, and inflation figures will be closely watched.
Technical Market Insights
Technical analysis highlights include:
- Formation of golden crosses in major indices like Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, signaling potential bullish momentum.
- Key support and resistance levels identified in currency pairs such as EURJPY, with potential pullbacks ahead of economic data releases.
- Volume and price trend analysis suggest cautious optimism, with traders advised to monitor critical price levels for confirmation of trends.
Summary and Outlook
The current financial landscape is characterized by a mix of cautious optimism and geopolitical uncertainty. Key themes include:
- Strong institutional interest in technology and energy sectors, supported by robust earnings and innovation.
- Trade tensions and tariffs influencing commodity prices and manufacturing costs.
- Monetary policy uncertainty with central banks balancing inflation control and economic growth.
- Emerging opportunities in commodities like copper and silver driven by structural demand shifts.
- Importance of adaptive investment strategies leveraging technology and market insights.
Investors should remain vigilant of upcoming economic data, geopolitical developments, and sector-specific trends to navigate the evolving market environment effectively.
Equity Markets
The US equity markets have shown mixed but resilient performance entering 2026. The S&P 500 is near all-time highs, supported by strong sector performances, particularly in energy and defense. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recently hit record levels, buoyed by expectations of infrastructure spending and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Nasdaq Composite has experienced some consolidation but remains in an uptrend, with technology stocks like Nvidia reaching record highs due to strong earnings and bullish technical indicators.
- Defense stocks surged up to 5% following a proposed $1.5 trillion military budget for 2027.
- Energy sector led gains with a 2.54% increase, while technology stocks saw some profit-taking.
- Alphabet Inc. reached an all-time high after AI feature announcements and analyst upgrades.
- Market valuations are elevated, with the S&P 500 trading at a forward P/E of 23x, prompting cautious optimism among investors.
Investors are advised to watch key support levels on major indices (S&P 500 near 6,800 and 50-day EMA) and remain vigilant ahead of upcoming economic data releases, especially the US Non-Farm Payroll report, which could influence Federal Reserve policy and market sentiment.
Fixed Income and Currency Markets
Bond markets have rallied recently, leading to lower yields amid mixed economic data and moderating inflation signals. The US dollar remains resilient, supported by a strong labor market, but faces pressure from dovish Federal Reserve commentary and geopolitical uncertainties.
- Japanese Government Bond yields have risen following stronger household spending and hawkish Bank of Japan signals, strengthening the yen and pressuring USD/JPY.
- Currency pairs such as AUD/USD and USD/JPY are sensitive to US-China trade developments and Federal Reserve-BoJ policy divergence.
- Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 are influencing currency and bond markets, with some Fed officials advocating caution due to persistent inflation risks.
Commodities and Precious Metals
Precious metals have experienced strong performance driven by geopolitical tensions, industrial demand, and expectations of lower real yields due to anticipated interest rate cuts.
- Gold: Trading around $4,435 per ounce, gold has broken key resistance levels and is supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical risks such as Venezuela's political instability and unrest in Iran. Technical analysis suggests bullish momentum with targets near $4,500 and potential for further upside towards $4,900 later in the year.
- Silver: Benefiting from industrial demand, especially in solar energy and electric vehicles, silver trades near $76 with upside potential towards $82-$84. Supply constraints due to declining ore grades limit output growth.
- Palladium: Outperforming many assets with an 8% gain year-to-date, palladium is supported by strong automotive demand and supply constraints exacerbated by sanctions on Russia, the largest producer.
- Oil: Brent and WTI crude prices have declined slightly following announcements of increased Venezuelan oil shipments to the US, but geopolitical risks keep prices elevated near $62.40 and $58.10 respectively. The market remains cautious amid supply uncertainties and global demand dynamics.
Cryptocurrency Market
The cryptocurrency sector is showing signs of recovery after a volatile 2025. Major coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have rebounded strongly, supported by technological upgrades and renewed investor interest.
- Bitcoin has surged over 120% since 2024 lows, with key support between $88,000 and $93,000 and resistance near $100,000.
- Ethereum's recent Fusaka upgrade has improved transaction efficiency, supporting a bullish trend with resistance levels around $3,200 and $4,950 (all-time high).
- Altcoins such as Binance Coin, Monero, and ZCash have posted significant gains, reflecting growing market diversification.
- Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with investors advised to consider regular investments amid ongoing volatility.
Macroeconomic Factors and Outlook
Key macroeconomic drivers shaping the market landscape include:
- Federal Reserve Policy: Mixed signals from Fed officials create uncertainty, balancing inflation risks against a softening labor market. Rate cuts are anticipated but timing remains uncertain.
- Geopolitical Risks: The capture of Venezuela's President Maduro and related tensions in Latin America, along with unrest in Iran, are elevating safe-haven demand and influencing commodity prices.
- Labor Market: US job growth is moderating with unemployment near 4.5%, while wage growth remains steady. Upcoming employment reports are critical for Fed policy direction.
- Trade Relations: US-China and US-Japan trade negotiations, tariffs, and export restrictions continue to impact currency pairs and global supply chains.
- Industrial Demand: Growth in renewable energy and electric vehicles is driving demand for silver and other industrial metals, supporting prices despite supply challenges.
Overall, the market environment in early 2026 is characterized by cautious optimism, with investors balancing strong equity performance against geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Monitoring upcoming economic data, geopolitical developments, and central bank communications will be essential for navigating the evolving landscape.
Market Overview
On January 9, 2026, the US stock market closed with mixed results. The S&P 500 remained flat, the Nasdaq Composite declined by 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6%. This mixed performance reflects a rotation into cyclical sectors amid ongoing geopolitical and economic developments.
Major indices remain above key moving averages, supporting a cautiously bullish outlook despite short-term volatility and external pressures.
Sector Performance
- Energy Sector: Led gains with a 3.2% increase, driven by a rebound in oil prices following developments related to Venezuelan oil exports.
- Consumer Discretionary: Rose 1.7%, supported by strong economic data and gains in homebuilder stocks such as Lennar and D.R. Horton.
- Information Technology: Declined 1.5%, with major players like NVIDIA contributing to the downturn amid geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains.
- Health Care: Fell 0.9% overall, though some companies like Eli Lilly and AbbVie saw gains due to acquisition news.
Key Stock Highlights
- Shares of oil refiners Valero Energy and Marathon Petroleum surged by 5.05% and 2%, respectively, on news of increased Venezuelan oil supply to the US.
- Homebuilders and consumer discretionary stocks showed strength, with the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF rising 4.2%.
- Defense stocks gained following proposed increases in military budgets.
- Technology stocks faced pressure due to geopolitical tensions and demand concerns in China.
Economic Data Highlights
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims: 208,000 (better than consensus of 217,000), indicating a resilient labor market.
- Q3 Productivity: 4.9%, surpassing expectations of 2.5%, signaling strong economic efficiency.
- October Trade Balance: -$29.4 billion, better than the forecasted -$61.3 billion, reflecting improved trade conditions.
These data points support a positive economic outlook, though some labor market concerns remain due to elevated continuing claims.
Market Sentiment and Technical Outlook
Despite recent pullbacks, major US indices remain above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating underlying strength. Key resistance and support levels include:
- Dow Jones: Resistance near 49,876 and 50,000; support at 49,000 and 48,055.
- Nasdaq 100: Resistance at 26,000 and 26,399; support at 25,391 and 24,500.
- S&P 500: Resistance at 7,007 and 7,500; support at 6,848 and 6,500.
Investors are advised to watch for potential breakouts above these levels, which could signal further bullish momentum.
US Treasury Bonds and Trading Bias
US Treasury bonds show mixed short-term signals as of January 9, 2026:
- 5-Year Bond (USB05Y_USD): Short-term technical indicators mostly bearish, but long-term moving averages remain bullish. Trading zone indicates a long bias overall.
- 10-Year Bond (USB10Y_USD): Trading zone and short-term bias are bearish, with mixed trader sentiment.
- 30-Year Bond (USB30Y_USD): Short-term trading bias is bearish, but some bullish signals from moving averages and exposure ratios.
These mixed signals reflect uncertainty in bond markets amid evolving economic data and Fed policy expectations.
Commodities: Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, and Silver
- WTI Oil: Trading around $57.50, rebounding due to geopolitical developments involving Venezuelan oil. Resistance near $58.61 (50-day MA) and support around $57.00.
- Brent Oil: Also rebounding with resistance at $62.54 and potential to test $64.50-$65.00 levels amid Middle East tensions.
- Natural Gas: Bearish trend with prices below $3.40, testing support between $3.25 and $3.30, with possible further declines to $3.05-$3.10.
- Gold and Silver: Prices pressured by a strong US dollar; gold around 4,463 and silver near $76.15. Key support for silver at $75.05, with potential buying opportunities if prices dip to $72.50.
Currency Markets
- US Dollar Index (DXY): Testing resistance near 98.85-99.00, supported by strong US labor data. Potential to move towards 100.25-100.40 if resistance breaks.
- EUR/USD: Pullback after weaker Euro Area sentiment, with support between 1.1615 and 1.1630.
- GBP/USD: Declined due to weaker UK housing data, with support near 1.3360-1.3375.
- USD/CAD: Strengthening, with resistance at 1.3890-1.3905 and potential to test 1.3980-1.3995.
- USD/JPY: Attempting to settle above 157.00, with resistance at 158.00-158.50 amid weak Japanese consumer confidence.
Upcoming Market Catalysts
Investors are closely watching the December Nonfarm Payroll report expected at 8:30 AM ET, forecasted to show 60,000 new jobs and a decrease in unemployment to 4.5%. Additionally, a potential Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's tariffs could impact various sectors.
Corporate earnings season is also underway, with major banks and financials preparing to report, which may influence market direction.
Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Delta Air Lines reported Q2 earnings beating expectations with EPS of $2.02 and raised its fiscal year guidance. The stock gained +13% following the earnings report. Investors are watching for tariff impacts on business travel.
Conagra Brands (CAG)
Conagra is expected to report EPS of $0.59. No major news reported today.
Helen of Troy (HELE)
Helen of Troy reported a significant sales decline and missed earnings expectations, causing the stock to drop -25%.
Simply Good Foods (SMPL)
Expected EPS is $0.50. No additional news today.
Levi Strauss (LEVI)
Expected EPS is $0.13 (post-close). No further updates.
PriceSmart (PSMT)
Expected EPS is $1.12 (post-close). No further updates.
WD-40 Company (WDFC)
Expected EPS is $1.44 (post-close). No further updates.
Kellogg (KLG)
Kellogg shares surged +30% after reports of a potential $3 billion acquisition by Ferrero.
Costco (COST)
Costco reported a significant increase in net sales for June and slight improvement in total comparable sales.
Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Announced a $2.5 billion share buyback program.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
Palantir stock showed volatility but remains near all-time highs, with a 740% gain since early 2024. The company holds $5.4 billion in cash and no debt, though valuation concerns remain due to a high forward price-to-sales ratio of 80x.
AMD
Shares rose +3% after being upgraded to Buy by HSBC.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia continues to show strong momentum, with a 47% rise since tariff announcements. The company now requires full upfront payments from Chinese customers for its H200 AI chips amid geopolitical tensions.
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA
Shares fell 12% following a disappointing Q2 earnings report.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin briefly reached a new all-time high above $112,000, driven by institutional investments and AI sector optimism, before correcting slightly.
Market Overview
U.S. markets showed mixed performance with a slight pullback: Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.59%, S&P 500 down 0.38%, Nasdaq Composite down 0.15%, and Russell 2000 down 0.73%. Investors are focused on upcoming jobless claims and earnings reports.
Trade and Tariffs
President Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazil, impacting stocks in sectors like aerospace and defense (e.g., ERJ shares fell 8%). The tariff has also affected copper stocks positively.
Commodities
Gold prices rose modestly, while natural gas prices remain pressured. Oil prices declined due to expectations of increased Venezuelan crude imports to the U.S.
Federal Reserve
Fed officials remain divided on the timing and extent of rate cuts amid tariff-induced inflation risks. Comments from FOMC members are awaited for further clarity.