Overview

The commodities market on February 24, 2026, is marked by significant volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, tariff shocks, and economic data releases. Key commodities such as crude oil, gold, silver, cocoa, natural gas, and copper are experiencing notable price movements influenced by supply-demand dynamics, political developments, and technical factors.

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices are near six-month highs, with Brent crude at approximately $71.49 per barrel and WTI at $66.31 per barrel. The market is on the verge of a bullish breakout after a prolonged downtrend of 2.5 years, supported by rising tensions between the US and Iran and rotations into energy and defense sectors.

• US crude inventories have dropped to a six-month low, down by 9 million barrels.
• Goldman Sachs forecasts a global oil surplus in 2026 unless disrupted by supply events, especially related to Iran.
• Upcoming US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva are critical and could significantly impact supply and prices.
• Technical outlook suggests key price levels between $64.84 and $67.25 will determine near-term direction, with potential targets up to $75.05 if bullish momentum continues.

Overall, geopolitical risks and supply concerns are the main drivers, with market participants closely watching diplomatic developments for cues on price direction.

Gold and Silver

Gold is trading around $5,144 per ounce, showing resilience amid rising uncertainty from tariff increases and geopolitical tensions. Silver is priced near $87.41 per ounce, with recent volatility reflecting shifts in industrial demand and investment flows.

• Gold has rallied over the past three weeks, supported by central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 metric tonnes in 2025 and renewed ETF inflows in 2026.
• Silver benefits from both investment demand and strong industrial use, particularly in renewable energy and electronics, with global demand projected to exceed 1.2 billion ounces this year.
• Technical indicators for gold suggest an ongoing uptrend with key support zones between $5,002 and $5,144, while silver faces resistance near $90-$95 and support around $82-$84.

Investors are advised to consider "buy the dip" strategies for gold and monitor silver's industrial demand trends closely.

Cocoa

Cocoa futures have dropped sharply, falling over 5% to below $3,000 per tonne for the first time since May 2023. This decline is driven by weak physical demand, slower processing activity, favorable weather in West Africa, and expectations of a strong harvest season, which are pressuring farmer returns.

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows a transitional market phase with reduced open interest and a bearish speculative positioning. However, producers have cut short hedges, indicating easing supply pressures. The concentration of short positions among few traders raises the risk of a short squeeze if bullish catalysts emerge.

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices are slightly down, trading near $2.889 per MMBtu, reflecting mild demand and supply conditions.

Copper

Copper prices remain strong, supported by robust long-term demand from electrification, AI infrastructure, and power grid expansion. Prices have surpassed $6 per pound but face short-term volatility due to rising inventories and softer demand from China.

• Speculative positioning is high, with record open interest on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, indicating momentum-driven flows.
• Technical outlook remains bullish with key support at $5.20 and resistance near $5.80, with potential for a rebound towards $7 if momentum sustains.
• Macro factors include slowing US GDP growth and cautious consumer sentiment, but loose financial conditions and inflation support commodity investment.

Market Influences and Outlook

The commodities market is navigating a complex environment shaped by:

• Geopolitical tensions, especially US-Iran relations and potential military actions.
• Trade policy uncertainty following tariff increases to 15% announced by former President Trump after a Supreme Court ruling.
• Economic data releases including US GDP, consumer confidence, and inflation metrics.
• Central bank activities and currency fluctuations impacting investment flows into commodities.

Investors should remain vigilant to geopolitical developments, monitor technical signals, and consider diversification and risk management strategies amid elevated volatility.