1. Global Market Overview and Macroeconomic Themes

Markets globally are navigating a complex environment shaped by geopolitical tensions, tariff policy uncertainty, and mixed economic data. The US Supreme Court recently struck down President Trump's emergency tariffs, leading to a proposed 15% global tariff under alternative legal provisions, which has created market uncertainty but no major selloff. This tariff confusion has contributed to cautious investor sentiment, with European stocks outperforming US indices in February, and a weakening US dollar against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, especially regarding potential US military action against Iran and nuclear negotiations, have driven oil prices higher and increased safe-haven demand for gold and silver.

• US indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures have retreated recently, reversing prior gains due to tariff and geopolitical concerns.
• Asian markets showed mixed results, with South Korea and Taiwan gaining, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined.
• Japan's inflation rate fell below 2% for the first time in 44 months, tempering expectations for Bank of Japan tightening.
• Australia's labor market remains solid, with unemployment steady at 4.1%, but the Reserve Bank maintains a hawkish stance on inflation.
• US GDP growth slowed to 1.4% annualized in Q4 2025, below expectations, while inflation pressures persist, complicating Federal Reserve policy outlook.

2. Equity Markets and Sector Performance

Equity markets have shown volatility amid earnings season and macroeconomic concerns. The US earnings season is nearing completion, with over 75% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings expectations and reporting strong revenue growth, particularly in AI-related sectors. However, cautious guidance from retailers like Walmart signals consumer spending pressures.

• Technology Sector: Showing signs of stabilization ahead of Nvidia's earnings report (due Feb 25). Mega-cap tech stocks are rebounding, though software subsectors have declined. Analysts recommend balanced exposure to tech alongside industrials, consumer discretionary, and healthcare.
• Financials and Mining: Australian banks have exceeded earnings expectations, supporting the ASX 200 index, which hit key resistance at 9,114. Major mining companies have risen 20% since October highs, driven by commodity demand and constrained supply.
• Retail & Consumer Staples: Walmart reported strong Q4 results but lowered outlook, reflecting financial pressures on consumers. Other retailers like YETI and POOL faced declines after disappointing guidance.
• Energy & Industrials: Energy stocks performed well amid rising oil prices, with companies like OXY and Deere (DE) reporting strong earnings and raised forecasts.
• Biotech & Pharma: Mixed results with some companies reporting in line with expectations and others impacted by legal rulings.

US indices are lagging behind European and Asian markets in February, with the Nasdaq particularly weak but maintaining key support levels around 24,400. The Dow could achieve a rare ten consecutive monthly gains if February ends positively.

3. Commodities and Currency Markets

Oil

Crude oil prices have surged to their highest levels in about seven months, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly US-Iran dynamics and concerns over the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude recently traded above $70 per barrel, with technical indicators showing bullish momentum but facing critical resistance near $66.80. The market remains cautious due to a persistent global supply surplus, especially from non-OPEC+ producers.

Gold and Silver

Gold prices have rebounded strongly, surpassing $5,000 per ounce, supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical risks and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year. Silver prices also rose sharply. Despite recent inflows into gold ETFs, volatility has decreased, indicating a period of market indecision. Key resistance levels for gold are around $5,140 to $5,200.

Foreign Exchange

• The US dollar has weakened against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc but remains strong overall, on track for its best weekly performance in four months due to reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts.
• EUR/USD is trading near 1.1780, supported by softer US growth and sticky inflation in Europe.
• GBP/USD has declined amid UK economic weakness but shows some recovery potential.
• USD/JPY remains above 155, supported by Japan's slowing inflation and limited Bank of Japan tightening prospects.
• NZD/USD outlook is influenced by China's tariff shifts and New Zealand's retail strength, with the Chinese yuan becoming increasingly relevant for Kiwi traders.

4. Cryptocurrency Market

Bitcoin (BTC) is under pressure, facing a potential five-week losing streak with ETF outflows hitting $315.9 million recently. Year-to-date, BTC has declined over 22%, impacted by fading expectations for a Fed rate cut, geopolitical tensions, and continued withdrawals from major BTC-spot ETFs. Upcoming US labor market and consumer confidence data are expected to influence Bitcoin's near-term price trajectory.

5. Notable Corporate and Market News

• Apple Inc. (AAPL): Reported Q1 revenue of $143.8 billion, a 16% increase year-over-year, driven by strong iPhone sales and record services revenue of $30 billion. Gross margin improved to 48.2%, and operating cash flow was $53.9 billion. Despite a recent stock dip, analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" rating with a price target of $293.48.
• Nvidia: Earnings report expected on February 25, with strong AI demand anticipated to drive results.
• Amazon: Experienced cloud outages due to AI tool errors.
• Blue Owl Capital: Denied reports of halting investor liquidity.
• Newmont Corporation: Beat EPS and revenue expectations.
• Anthropic IPO: No confirmed date yet, but the company is progressing towards readiness supported by significant funding and partnerships.
• US Government: Initiated process to release files related to UFOs and unidentified aerial phenomena, reflecting broader transparency efforts.

6. Market Sentiment and Outlook

Investor sentiment remains cautious amid tariff uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and mixed economic data. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reports a slight decline in bullish sentiment, while active investment managers show increased optimism. The CNN Fear & Greed Index indicates prevailing fear but with some improvement.

Volatility is expected to remain elevated, especially with upcoming inflation data releases from the US and Australia, and key corporate earnings reports. The VIX index remains elevated, signaling potential for significant market swings.

Analysts recommend a balanced investment approach, maintaining exposure to growth sectors like technology while exploring opportunities in industrials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and commodities. Caution is advised given the complex interplay of tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators.

7. Technical Market Highlights

• FTSE 100: Recently hit a record high of 10,745 but pulled back due to tariff concerns. Support levels at 10,639 and 10,583 are key, with a bullish outlook above 10,442.
• USD/JPY: Declined from ¥155.64 to ¥154.00; support at ¥152.27 and resistance near ¥156.12. Medium-term outlook neutral.
• Nasdaq 100: Neutral to bullish, with resistance at 25,000 and support at 24,650. A breakout above resistance could trigger further gains.
• SPDR Gold (GLD): Broke through medium to long-term rising trend, with no immediate resistance, suggesting potential for further gains. Support near $310.
• Crude Oil: Bullish momentum with key resistance at $66.80; breakout could target $68.40, $70.40, and $74. Failure to hold above $62 could lead to bearish reversal.

Summary

The current financial landscape is marked by tariff policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions (notably US-Iran relations), mixed economic data, and ongoing earnings season. Commodities like oil and gold are benefiting from safe-haven demand and supply concerns, while equity markets show sectoral divergence with technology stabilizing and energy/mining sectors strong. Currency markets reflect shifting monetary policy expectations and geopolitical risks. Cryptocurrencies face headwinds amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Investors are advised to maintain vigilance, diversify portfolios, and monitor upcoming economic data and corporate earnings closely.