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1. Global Equity Markets
United States
US equity markets have experienced volatility with a notable risk-off sentiment, especially in the technology sector. The Nasdaq 100 led declines with futures down 1.9%, pressured by disappointing earnings from major tech companies such as Cisco (down over 13%), Apple (down 5.3%), Palantir (down 4.8%), and AppLovin (down 18.5%). The S&P 500 and Dow Jones also fell by 1.6% and 1.3% respectively, reflecting concerns over AI disruptions and rotation away from growth stocks.
However, value- and interest-rate sensitive sectors like utilities and real estate outperformed. The Russell 2000 small-cap index gained about 1%, indicating some breadth in market performance. The market is awaiting key US inflation data (CPI) which is expected to influence Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Europe
European markets showed mixed but generally positive performance. The STOXX Europe 600 index rose by 0.3%, led by gains in the financial sector, particularly banks such as NatWest, Standard Chartered, and Barclays, which rebounded after a tough prior week. However, mining stocks and defensive sectors like National Grid and SSE underperformed due to declining commodity prices and rotation into cyclical sectors.
Investors are watching upcoming earnings from major companies including Airbus, Nestle, and Rio Tinto, as well as industrial production data expected to show a slowdown in growth.
Asia-Pacific
Asian markets were subdued due to Lunar New Year holidays in China, South Korea, and Taiwan. Japan's Nikkei 225 was flat to slightly up, but overall economic data disappointed with Q4 2025 GDP growth at 0.1%, below expectations. Consumer spending remains weak amid high living costs, though business investment showed some improvement.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite indices declined modestly, reflecting global risk-off sentiment and tech sector weakness.
2. Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Developments
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2026 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, slightly below expectations, with core CPI at 2.5%, the lowest since 2021. Monthly increases were modest, indicating easing inflation pressures. This data supports expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates steady in the near term, with potential rate cuts possible in the latter half of 2026.
US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) surprised to the upside with 130,000 jobs added in January, reinforcing a strong labor market. Futures markets price a 94% probability of the Fed maintaining rates, with a 60% chance of a rate cut by June.
In Europe, the UK economy grew by 0.1% in Q4 2025, below forecasts, while Germany's current account surplus remained stable but showed a decline in goods surplus. Japan's weak GDP growth and disappointing consumer spending raise concerns about the Bank of Japan's ability to tighten policy, reinforcing expectations of prolonged accommodative measures.
Discussions between Japan and the US on a $550 billion investment vehicle are ongoing but without clear decisions yet.
3. Currency and Fixed Income Markets
The US Dollar Index (DXY) held near 97.10, supported by strong labor data and risk-off sentiment. The Japanese yen weakened, trading below key levels such as 153 against the USD, pressured by weak GDP data and monetary policy divergence. The Australian dollar lagged, while the Swiss franc and Japanese yen acted as safe havens amid market uncertainty.
US Treasury yields fell as investors sought safety amid equity market weakness. High yield debt faced pressure with widening spreads. Gilt yields in the UK decreased, with market expectations of a Bank of England rate cut in March or April.
4. Commodities and Precious Metals
Gold prices declined by about 3%, testing key technical levels around $4,950 to $5,000. Technical analysis using Fibonacci retracement suggests the 50% retracement level near 5000 has turned from support to resistance. Traders are advised to consider long positions if prices break above this level, or short positions if bearish signals emerge.
Silver prices also fell but showed some rebound, trading near $76.50. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is set for a modest decline, with energy prices particularly affected. WTI crude oil prices dropped sharply below $62 following unexpected OPEC production increase signals, despite geopolitical tensions.
Natural gas prices fell nearly 7% due to forecasts of warmer temperatures.
5. Cryptocurrency Market
Bitcoin traded in a range between $65,000 and $70,000, marking a fourth consecutive week of losses. Institutional demand appears to be waning, with significant purchases in January largely attributed to MicroStrategy. On-chain data indicates limited inflows and a preference for downside hedging. Key support is identified around $60,000, with potential for further downside to $55,000 if breached.
Ethereum traded near $1,930, also under pressure. ETF outflows and cautious investor sentiment suggest a defensive tone in the crypto market. Analysts warn of a possible narrative crisis for Bitcoin, with some forecasting a drop to $10,000 if current trends persist.
6. Corporate Earnings and Sector Highlights
Major upcoming earnings include Safran, Enbridge, NatWest, Tokio Marine Holdings, Japan Post Bank, TC Energy, and Cameco this week. Next week features BHP Group, Medtronic, Palo Alto Networks, Cadence Design Systems, Walmart, Alibaba, Nestle, Airbus, Rio Tinto, and others.
Technology sector earnings have disappointed, contributing to the sell-off in tech stocks. Conversely, financials in Europe rebounded strongly, with banks leading gains. Materials, industrials, energy, and consumer staples sectors have rallied year-to-date, outperforming growth sectors.
A2 Milk Company is set to report half-year earnings on February 16, 2026, with focus on its performance in China and the US markets.
7. Market Technicals and Volatility
Volatility remains elevated, with the VIX index closing at 20.82, reflecting ongoing demand for downside protection amid inflation data anticipation. The S&P 500 is testing critical support levels near 6,900, while the Nasdaq 100 faces bearish momentum with key moving averages under pressure.
USD/JPY technical analysis shows trading below the 50-day EMA but above the 200-day EMA, indicating a bearish near-term trend. Key levels to watch are 150 and 140 on the downside, and 158 and 160 on the upside.
8. Geopolitical and Other Market Influences
Potential developments include a possible US-Iran agreement and increased US military presence in the Persian Gulf, which have added to market uncertainty. The US Supreme Court is expected to rule on tariffs by February 20, which could impact trade-sensitive sectors.
Concerns over AI's impact on traditional companies continue to influence market sentiment, contributing to sector rotations and volatility.
Global Market Landscape
Markets are currently characterized by cautious investor sentiment amid mixed economic data and geopolitical developments. Key themes include:
- Equities: European markets show modest gains, led by financials and commodity sectors, while U.S. markets are subdued with tech stocks underperforming. Asian markets are mixed, with Japan declining due to weak GDP data and China quiet for Lunar New Year.
- Fixed Income: U.S. Treasury yields are approaching critical levels near 4.00%, with strong demand for U.S. Treasuries pushing yields down. Japan's government bonds rallied after a strong auction, causing yields to drop significantly.
- Commodities: Gold prices have rebounded above $5,000, supported by softer U.S. yields and a weaker dollar, though recent geopolitical easing and Chinese New Year holidays have dampened momentum. Oil prices remain steady near $68, pressured by inventory builds and reduced geopolitical risks. Silver and platinum face downward pressure, with silver struggling to hold above $78 and platinum near critical support levels.
- Currencies: The Japanese yen weakened initially but has resumed a rally, while the U.S. dollar remains firm but within a tight range. The British pound weakened significantly amid UK labor market deterioration and rate cut expectations.
- Digital Assets: Bitcoin and Ethereum are consolidating with mixed flows, reflecting selective positioning rather than broad risk appetite. XRP showed a rebound driven by positive regulatory developments but remains technically bearish in the short term.
Macroeconomic Factors and Key Data
- U.S. Labor Market: Solid job growth with 130,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.3%, but uneven gains raise concerns. Wage growth remains persistent, keeping core inflation sticky around 2.5%. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance, delaying rate cuts until mid-2026.
- Inflation: U.S. CPI data shows easing inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, supporting expectations for potential rate cuts starting July 2026. Canadian inflation came in lower than expected, influencing Bank of Canada policy outlook.
- UK Economy: The labor market is deteriorating with unemployment rising to 5.2%, wage growth slowing, and market pricing in a high probability of Bank of England rate cuts starting in March. The British pound has weakened accordingly.
- Eurozone: Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index fell short of expectations, signaling cautious investor sentiment. Eurozone inflation remains moderate, with slight declines in sentiment indices.
- Upcoming Events: Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve minutes, U.S. PCE inflation data, and corporate earnings from major companies such as Medtronic, Walmart, and Alibaba.
Sector and Corporate Highlights
- Financials: European banks recovered after AI-related sell-offs, with notable gains in NatWest, Barclays, and Prudential.
- Consumer and Industrials: Norwegian Cruise Line surged nearly 7% after Elliott Management disclosed a 10% stake, signaling potential strategic changes amid structural challenges.
- Technology: U.S. tech stocks faced volatility and underperformance, with major names like NVIDIA and Apple declining, while software stocks showed resilience.
- Precious Metals: Gold is in a consolidation phase with technical indicators suggesting a potential breakout above $5,600, supported by equity market volatility and safe-haven demand.
Technical and Market Sentiment Insights
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold is completing a historic parabolic Wave 5 rally, approaching resistance zones between $5,200 and $5,550. Overbought technical indicators and bearish divergences suggest an imminent corrective phase targeting $4,200 to $4,650. Post-correction, a bullish trend is expected to resume, with potential to exceed $6,000 in the medium term.
| Resistance Levels | Support Levels |
|---|---|
| $5,200 - $5,300 (Wave 5 exhaustion zone) | $4,650 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) |
| $5,500 (2.618 Fibonacci extension) | $4,400 - $4,350 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) |
| $5,800 (Long-term bullish target) | $4,200 - $4,100 (50% Fibonacci retracement) |
Traders should prepare for volatility and manage risk carefully, monitoring macroeconomic and geopolitical developments closely.
Summary of Market Risks and Opportunities
- Risks: Elevated market volatility, geopolitical uncertainties (notably U.S.-Iran talks), AI sector disruption concerns, and potential inflation surprises.
- Opportunities: Potential rate cuts in the U.S. and UK, safe-haven demand for gold amid equity volatility, strategic corporate moves (e.g., Elliott Management's stake in Norwegian Cruise Line), and selective positioning in digital assets.
- Investor Sentiment: Fund manager surveys indicate bullishness on commodities and equities but caution on overinvestment and AI bubble risks.
Market Overview
US stock futures declined amid cautious trading influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic data anticipation. The Dow Jones E-mini dropped 135 points, and the Nasdaq 100 E-mini fell 192 points. Market sentiment remains defensive ahead of US-Iran talks in Geneva, with concerns about potential military escalation if talks fail. Additionally, AI-related sector turbulence and expectations of prolonged interest rate holds weigh on investor confidence.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened above 97, pressuring EUR/USD below 1.1850 and gold prices towards the 4,900 level. Inflation data showed easing with January CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and a modest 0.2% month-over-month increase, while Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 130,000, and unemployment fell to 4.3%, supporting a scenario of sustained elevated interest rates with rate cuts unlikely before June 2026.
Equities and Sector Performance
US equities ended the prior week lower, with the S&P 500 down 1.39%, Nasdaq 100 down 1.37%, and Dow Jones down 1.23%. Amazon extended its losing streak to nine days, closing at $198.79, pressured by a forecasted $200 billion capital expenditure for 2026, well above expectations. Defensive sectors such as utilities (+2.7%) and health care (+1.0%) outperformed, reflecting a rotation towards safer assets amid tech sector weakness and AI-related uncertainties.
Information technology stocks faced volatility, with major names like NVIDIA and Apple posting losses, while communication services also declined due to weakness in Meta Platforms and Alphabet.
Forex Market
The US dollar showed firmness, with the DXY at 97.22, trapped in a tightening triangle pattern. EUR/USD slipped to 1.1830, breaking below key support levels, with bearish momentum suggesting further downside towards 1.1670 if support at 1.1765 fails. GBP/USD dropped to 1.3550, breaking below support and indicating bearish pressure. USD/JPY traded near 153.1, with the Japanese yen strengthening after a successful bond auction despite weak GDP growth in Japan.
Fixed Income and Bonds
US Treasury yields saw strong demand, with the 5-year and 30-year bonds showing bullish technical signals. The 5-year bond closed at 109.74 with a buy signal across multiple moving averages, while the 30-year bond closed at 118.46, also supported by long-term bullish indicators. The 2-year bond, however, showed mixed signals with a sell count signal despite some moving averages indicating strength.
Commodities
Gold prices are under pressure, trading around $4,911, testing support at $4,900 with a risk of further declines towards $4,860 and $4,685. Silver declined 1.98% to $74.67, extending its bearish channel with key support at $70.37. Natural gas prices dropped nearly 7% due to warmer weather forecasts. Crude oil prices showed resilience with WTI holding above $63 and Brent near $69, supported by geopolitical risk premiums amid ongoing US-Iran talks.
Technical analysis for gold suggests a potential long trade around the 5010 area with targets near 5140, while a break below 4985 could open short opportunities targeting 4870.
Cryptocurrency Market
Bitcoin rebounded above $70,000 following softer US inflation data, raising hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. However, the market remains cautious with a four-week outflow streak in BTC-spot ETFs. Ethereum and Bitcoin face downside risks reminiscent of the 2022 bear market, with recovery above $80,000 needed to signal a rebound.
XRP showed a strong recovery, breaking above $1.5 driven by positive regulatory developments, including Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse's appointment to the CFTC advisory panel, signaling a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment. Despite this, technical indicators remain cautious below key moving averages.
Solana is forming a bearish flag pattern, trading below key EMAs, with downside risk if support near $80 breaks.
Key Economic Events and Outlook
- FOMC minutes release expected, with markets watching for clues on interest rate policy.
- US Q4 GDP report and PCE Price Index data forthcoming, critical for Fed rate cut expectations.
- US-Iran talks in Geneva remain a major geopolitical risk factor influencing market sentiment.
- ADP employment and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index data could shift Fed policy outlook.
Market participants remain cautious, balancing strong labor market data against inflation moderation, with rate cuts unlikely before June 2026.
Summary Table: Selected Instrument Technical Signals (as of Feb 17, 2026)
| Instrument | Last Close | Technical Signal | Trend Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 5-Year Treasury Bond | 109.74 | Buy | Strong bullish across EMAs and SMAs |
| US 30-Year Treasury Bond | 118.46 | Buy | Long-term bullish momentum |
| US 2-Year Treasury Bond | 104.35 | Sell | Mixed signals, cautious outlook |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | ~4,911 | Bearish pressure | Testing key support, risk of further decline |
| Silver (XAG/USD) | 74.67 | Bearish | Extending decline within bearish channel |
| EUR/USD | 1.1830 | Bearish | Below support, potential further downside |
| Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | ~70,000 | Neutral to Bearish | Recovery attempts amid ETF outflows |
| XRP/USD | ~1.5+ | Mixed | Rebound on regulatory optimism, technical caution |
Conclusion
The US market on February 17, 2026, is characterized by cautious investor sentiment amid geopolitical risks, mixed economic data, and sector rotation. Defensive sectors outperform as technology stocks face pressure from AI-related uncertainties. The US dollar remains firm, impacting commodities like gold and silver negatively. Treasury bonds show strength in longer maturities, reflecting cautious positioning. Cryptocurrencies exhibit mixed signals with regulatory developments influencing sentiment. Market participants await key economic releases and FOMC minutes for clearer direction on monetary policy.
Amazon (AMZN)
Shares closed at $198.79, down 0.41%, extending a nine-day losing streak, the longest since July 2006. Concerns stem from a recent earnings report projecting $200 billion in 2026 capital expenditures, well above Wall Street's $150 billion estimate. The stock has dropped 23% from its November high, nearing critical support around $191.
Apple (AAPL)
Experienced a decline of 5.3% amid broader tech sector weakness and concerns over AI disruption impacting mega-cap tech stocks.
Palantir (PLTR)
Shares fell by 4.8%, reflecting ongoing market caution in technology stocks.
AppLovin (APP)
The worst performer on the Nasdaq, down 18.5% following weak Q4 results, despite some better earnings reports in the tech sector.
Arista Networks (ANET)
Shares rose over 6% after strong earnings that beat expectations. Management expressed confidence in maintaining profit margins despite cost pressures.
Applied Materials (AMAT)
Stock surged more than 10% after beating market expectations and providing optimistic sales forecasts for upcoming quarters.
Pinterest (PINS)
Shares fell 20% due to disappointing Q4 results, with both EPS and revenue below expectations and a pessimistic revenue outlook.
Alibaba (BABA)
Declined approximately 2% amid U.S. government considerations to add it to a list of entities facing export restrictions.
Rivian (RIVN)
Shares rose over 20% following optimistic sales forecasts for a new car model.
Natwest Group PLC (NWG.UK)
Current price at 6.05, up 4.93%, leading gains in the European banking sector.
HelloFresh SE (HFG.DE)
Price at 5.138, down 1.95%, reflecting some sector weakness.
Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY.NO)
Price at 83.76, down 2.01%, contributing to mixed European market performance.
XRP (Cryptocurrency)
Rebounded from $1.1227 to $1.6703 driven by positive sentiment from US Senate stablecoin discussions and Ripple CEO's appointment to the CFTC advisory panel. Despite this, technical indicators remain bearish below key moving averages.
Natural Gas (NATGAS)
Trading muted at 3.15, down 2.16%, following an EIA report showing a smaller-than-expected inventory drawdown of -249 bcf versus forecast -258 bcf.
Gold
Prices fell sharply by 4.1%, dropping below key support levels, influenced by softer inflation data and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
US Dollar
Gained momentum ahead of the CPI report, with the Dollar Index up 0.15% for the third consecutive day, supported by strong Non-Farm Payroll data and expectations of a potential upside surprise in inflation data.
Market Indices Overview
- Dow Jones: Closed 614 points lower (-1.23%) recently, with mixed performance in the week.
- S&P 500: Fell 1.39%, closing at 6,832.76.
- Nasdaq 100: Lost 1.37%, struggling with tech sector weakness.
- Russell 2000: Down 2.01%, reflecting broader market caution.