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last updated: 2/12/2026 7:25:40 PM NY time

1. Market Overview and Indices Performance

Global equity markets have shown mixed but generally positive momentum in early February 2026. Asian markets, led by Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's KOSPI, have reached record highs, marking a strong start to the year. The Nikkei 225 broke the 58,000 mark for the first time, surging nearly 15% year-to-date, while the KOSPI rose about 3%, driven by demand for AI-driven semiconductor chips from companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

European markets experienced modest gains, with the STOXX 600 up 0.7% and the CAC 40 outperforming with a 1.4% rise. Positive earnings from companies such as Legrand, Hermes, and Schroders (which was acquired by Nuveen, causing its shares to soar 30%) supported the market. In the US, major indices like the NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 posted gains of around 0.7% to 1%.

However, some sectors and companies faced challenges, including technology and financials, pressured by concerns over AI impacts and rising loan delinquencies.

2. Corporate Earnings and Sector Highlights

Key Earnings Reports

  • Unilever: Shares fell 3% after reporting 4.2% underlying sales growth but missing total revenue estimates (€12.6 billion).
  • Mercedes-Benz: Annual profits dropped 57%, mainly due to $1.2 billion in tariff-related costs; operating profit missed forecasts.
  • Cisco and Robinhood: Both saw significant share price declines (7% and 9%, respectively) after disappointing quarterly results, especially in crypto-related revenues.
  • Kering and Ferrari: Shares surged 7.6% and 9%, respectively, highlighting strength in luxury goods despite broader market fluctuations.
  • Biotech and Pharma: Mixed results with INCY down on weak guidance, NKTR positive on eczema drug results, and RGNX facing setbacks.
  • Energy and Utilities: BP suspended its share buyback program; Vistra upgraded due to improved risk/reward.
  • STMicroelectronics: Shares jumped over 8% after expanding partnership with Amazon Web Services.
  • British American Tobacco: Reported stable revenues and slight earnings growth but faces challenges from regulatory pressures and shifting consumer preferences.

Financials are under pressure due to fears of AI disruption and rising household debt delinquencies, with mortgage defaults surging in lower-income areas and student loan delinquencies hitting a record 16.3%.

3. Economic Data and Labor Market

Recent economic data shows mixed signals:

  • Retail sales remained flat in December, below expectations.
  • Q4 wages and salaries rose 0.7%, slightly under forecasts.
  • Household debt increased by $191 billion in Q4 2025, with worsening delinquency rates.
  • Foreign investment in emerging markets hit a record $99 billion in January.
  • French jobless rate reached a four-year high.

US labor market indicators have been disappointing, with rising jobless claims (highest since December 2025) and weak private payrolls, fueling speculation of a dovish Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report. However, a recent hawkish NFP report sent stocks lower, indicating market sensitivity to labor data. The US yield curve is steepening, reflecting expectations of future Federal Reserve rate cuts, though bond yields remain steady.

4. Commodities and Currencies

Precious metals have shown strength amid economic uncertainty:

  • Gold prices hovered around $5,000 per ounce, with recent fluctuations influenced by US labor data and dollar movements.
  • Silver saw a robust recovery, rising over 2% to above $82 per ounce.
  • Natural gas prices declined due to improved weather forecasts and lower industrial demand.
  • Crude oil prices rose modestly amid geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude near $69.75 per barrel.

Currency markets saw the Japanese yen strengthen significantly (largest weekly gain in over a year) following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's election victory, which is expected to support fiscal expansion. The US dollar weakened broadly, pressured by disappointing labor data and dovish expectations, while the Australian dollar reached a three-year high above $0.71. The Chinese yuan appreciated past 6.90 per dollar.

5. Cryptocurrencies and Digital Assets

Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced volatility but show signs of stabilization:

  • Bitcoin stabilized above $67,000 after a sharp sell-off, with forecasts suggesting a potential rebound to $80,000 based on futures data and technical analysis.
  • Ethereum rebounded after dipping below $2,000.
  • Recent Bitcoin declines are attributed to a deflation of overly optimistic expectations, with some analysts warning that the worst may not be over, predicting possible lows between $42,000 and $50,000.
  • Crypto-related stocks like Robinhood have suffered due to weak crypto revenues.

6. Credit Markets and Private Debt

The private credit market is expanding rapidly, offering customized loan options outside traditional banks. While this has increased stability for some borrowers, it has also introduced new risks:

  • Private credit funds fueled a boom in risky real estate deals, particularly in the home-flipping market, which is now seeing increased foreclosures as the market turns.
  • Easy-money loans have backfired on inexperienced investors, highlighting the risks of opaque and complex credit products.
  • Regulatory scrutiny is increasing, with concerns about the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's diminished enforcement under current political pressures.

7. Geopolitical and Political Developments

Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, remain a concern with US military assets amassing in the region, potentially impacting commodity prices and market sentiment.

In Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's coalition secured a two-thirds majority, raising expectations for fiscal stimulus measures, including a proposed suspension of sales tax on food, which has influenced currency and equity markets.

In the UK, the acquisition of Schroders by Nuveen marks a significant consolidation in asset management, ending over two centuries of independence for the firm.

8. Market Outlook and Investment Considerations

Investors are advised to monitor upcoming US employment data closely, as it will be critical in shaping market direction and Federal Reserve policy expectations. The mixed economic signals and sector performances suggest a cautious approach, with attention to:

  • Potential volatility in the US dollar and bond markets.
  • Sector-specific risks, especially in financials and technology, due to AI impacts and credit concerns.
  • Opportunities in luxury goods and semiconductor sectors, which have shown resilience and growth.
  • Cryptocurrency market risks and potential rebounds.
  • Credit market risks related to private debt and real estate financing.

Technical analysis of major indices like the S&P 500 and ASX 200 indicates ongoing upward trends but with key resistance levels that may lead to consolidation or pullbacks.

9. Security and Online Trading Environment

Security remains a paramount concern in online trading platforms. Robust verification processes, including identity checks and cybersecurity measures such as those provided by Cloudflare, are essential to protect users from unauthorized access, data breaches, and cyber attacks. Users and platforms alike must remain vigilant to safeguard financial transactions and personal information in an increasingly digital trading environment.

last updated: 2/13/2026 9:35:57 AM NY time

Global Equity Markets

Equity markets are experiencing significant volatility driven by sector rotation and macroeconomic uncertainties:

  • US Markets: Major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have declined recently, pressured by fears around artificial intelligence (AI) disruption and disappointing earnings from key tech companies such as Cisco and Apple. The Dow Jones has shown resilience with a modest decline and a record high above 50,000, supported by gains in "old economy" sectors like machinery and financials.
  • Asia-Pacific: The Nikkei 225 outperformed major US indices with a 2.3% gain, supported by a stronger Japanese yen and domestic consumption. However, the Hang Seng index declined amid tech sector weakness.
  • Europe: European markets are cautious, with profit-taking evident and mixed corporate earnings results. The luxury sector remains a bright spot, driven by structural tailwinds.
  • Market Sentiment: The MSCI World Index is poised for its first consecutive weekly losses in 2026, reflecting fragile risk appetite amid AI-related concerns and upcoming US inflation data.

Fixed Income and Volatility

  • US Treasury yields have declined, with the 2-year yield at 3.45% and the 10-year at 4.14%, as investors seek safe havens amid equity sell-offs.
  • Volatility remains contained but elevated in the short term, with the VIX index around 17.79, reflecting market caution ahead of key US economic releases.

Currency Markets

  • The Japanese yen has strengthened significantly, trading near 153 per USD, poised for its best weekly performance in over a year. This strength is supported by Bank of Japan policy normalization and domestic economic factors.
  • The US dollar index remains neutral around 97.05 but has shown strength following robust US labor market data.
  • Other currencies like the euro and British pound have seen slight declines, while the Australian dollar remains resilient due to hawkish central bank stance.

Commodities

  • Precious Metals: Gold and silver experienced sharp declines due to a liquidity-driven sell-off but are showing signs of recovery. Gold trades near $4,960, supported by its defensive role amid fragile risk sentiment. Silver is recovering toward $77 but faces resistance near $80.
  • Oil: Crude oil prices have been volatile. WTI trades near $62.93 after a recent plunge triggered by rumors of OPEC+ production increases. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and US-Iran talks continue to influence supply risk premiums. Technical levels suggest a cautious outlook with key resistance and support levels closely watched.
  • Agricultural Commodities: Mixed performance amid broader commodity weakness driven by AI-related risk-off sentiment.

Digital Assets

Cryptocurrencies remain under pressure amid broader market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty:

  • Bitcoin is trading around $60,000, showing cautious investor engagement with selective ETF flows.
  • Ethereum and Solana have faced significant sell-offs, with Ether pressured by leveraged liquidations and cautious institutional flows, and Solana down approximately 45% from recent highs due to risk-off sentiment and structural vulnerabilities.
  • Market stabilization depends on macroeconomic conditions, including interest rate expectations and risk appetite.

Macroeconomic Factors and Outlook

US Labor Market and Inflation

The US labor market remains resilient with 130,000 jobs added in January, surpassing expectations and lowering the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This strength has pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts from June to July 2026. However, upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, forecasted at 2.5%, is highly anticipated and expected to be a key market catalyst.

Global Economic Developments

  • Japan's economy benefits from a stronger yen and domestic demand, supporting equity gains despite global uncertainty.
  • The Euro area growth forecast for 2026 has been raised to 1.2%, though inflation undershooting and monetary policy adjustments are expected.
  • The UK economy shows signs of stagnation with weak services and construction sectors, raising concerns about the British pound's outlook.
  • China's inflation is easing, with producer prices falling, indicating potential challenges for domestic consumption and global trade.

Geopolitical and Policy Risks

Ongoing US-Iran negotiations and Middle East tensions keep oil markets on edge. Discussions around a $550 billion investment vehicle between Japan and the US remain unresolved, adding to global economic uncertainty.

Summary and Strategic Considerations

Markets are navigating a complex environment characterized by:

  • Heightened volatility driven by AI-related fears and tech sector sell-offs.
  • Mixed signals from economic data, with strong labor markets but cautious inflation outlooks.
  • Shifts in investor preference toward defensive assets like gold and "old economy" stocks.
  • Uncertainty around central bank policies, especially the timing of Fed rate cuts and BoJ normalization.

Investors should closely monitor upcoming US CPI data, geopolitical developments, and technical levels across asset classes to navigate this evolving landscape.

last updated: 2/13/2026 9:41:36 AM NY time

Market Overview

On February 12, 2026, U.S. stock markets experienced a notable downturn, with all major indexes falling over 1%. The technology sector led the decline, with the XLK sector down 2.5% and the QQQ index down 2%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index dropped more than 2%, and the Dow Jones Transport Average hit one-week lows, pressured by a steep fall in trucking stocks. Defensive sectors such as Staples, Utilities, and REITs showed gains amid the selloff.

Precious metals including gold, silver, and platinum declined sharply, with gold falling nearly 3% to $4,948.50 per ounce. Bitcoin continued its downward trend, trading around $65,000, down significantly from its October 2025 highs. Meanwhile, international markets, especially Japan, showed strength following political developments that boosted investor confidence.

Key Index Performance (Feb 12, 2026 Close)

Index Change % Change Last Price
Dow Jones Industrials-669.28-1.34%49,452
S&P 500-108.72-1.57%6,832
Nasdaq-469.32-2.03%22,597
Russell 2000-53.64-2.01%2,615

Sector and Corporate News

  • Technology: The sector faced significant pressure due to fears of AI disruption affecting software, travel, gaming, and logistics stocks. Mega-cap tech companies are struggling amid high capital expenditure plans.
  • Autos: Ferrari was upgraded to Neutral from Sell, and BorgWarner received a Buy upgrade due to its strategic pivot into AI data center markets.
  • Consumer: McDonald's beat earnings expectations but shares slipped; other consumer companies showed mixed results.
  • Energy: OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecast, supported by strong air travel and road mobility. Oil prices declined slightly, with WTI at $62.84 per barrel.
  • Financials: Paycom beat earnings but guided lower for FY revenues; RenaissanceRe increased dividends and renewed share repurchase programs.
  • Healthcare: ICON shares dropped over 20% due to accounting investigations; other biotech firms reported strong earnings.

Economic Data and Outlook

Recent U.S. economic data showed weaker housing figures, with existing home sales down 8.4% in January, and weekly jobless claims falling to 227,000. Retail sales for December were flat, raising concerns about consumer spending. The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is highly anticipated, with expectations of 0.3% growth in both headline and core CPI. Softer inflation data could support Federal Reserve rate cut expectations later in 2026.

The labor market remains resilient, with strong job growth tempering immediate rate cut expectations but not ruling out cuts by mid-year. Market sentiment is cautiously bullish, supported by anticipated Fed easing, strong corporate earnings, and improving US-China trade relations. However, risks include geopolitical tensions and disappointing economic indicators.

Technical Market Outlook

  • Dow Jones: Trading above its 50-day EMA with resistance near 50,611 and support at 48,987.
  • S&P 500: Approaching resistance at 7,036 with support at 6,914 (50-day EMA).
  • Nasdaq 100: Below its 50-day EMA, resistance at 25,466 and support at 24,106 (200-day EMA), indicating near-term bearishness.

Volatility remains moderate with the VIX around 17.79. The market is in a phase of risk repricing and correction, but underlying technological growth prospects remain strong.

Fixed Income and Commodities

U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 2-year yield at 3.45% and the 10-year yield at 4.14%. Technical analysis of key bond instruments shows bullish signals for the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, with most moving averages indicating long positions.

Gold prices fell sharply but remain supported above $4,900 per ounce amid Fed rate cut expectations. Oil prices softened due to easing Middle East tensions. Agricultural commodities showed mixed performance, with cocoa prices plunging due to increased supply from West Africa.

Cryptocurrency Market

Bitcoin traded near $65,000, down from previous highs, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a strong U.S. dollar and expectations of a prolonged Fed pause. Ethereum also declined to around $1,900. XRP faced pressure due to legislative delays and strong U.S. jobs data, falling below $1.4, though institutional inflows into XRP ETFs remain strong.

Key Instruments Technical Summary (as of February 13, 2026)

Instrument Last Price Signal Technical Bias
USB 30-Year Treasury Bond 117.416 Buy Long on EMA and SMA (10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 200)
USB 10-Year Treasury Bond 112.871 Buy Long on EMA and SMA (10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 200)
USB 5-Year Treasury Bond 109.455 Buy Long on EMA and SMA (10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 200)
USB 2-Year Treasury Bond 104.278 Sell Mixed technicals, mostly long on EMAs and SMAs but sell signal on 9/13 count
5E2 (Euro FX Futures) 2.10 Buy Mixed technicals, mostly long on short EMAs, short on longer-term SMAs
9CI (Crude Oil Futures) 3.12 Sell Mostly long on EMAs and SMAs, but mixed momentum indicators

Summary

The US market as of February 13, 2026, is navigating a cautious environment marked by technology sector weakness, inflation data anticipation, and mixed economic signals. While short-term volatility and sector-specific challenges persist, the medium-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts, strong corporate earnings, and improving geopolitical relations. Fixed income markets show bullish technical trends, and commodities reflect mixed pressures. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming CPI data and labor market reports closely for further market direction.

last updated: 2/12/2026 7:25:00 PM NY time

Kering SA (KER.FR)

Shares rose by 7.63% to €281, driven by positive market sentiment in the luxury goods sector despite a smaller-than-expected drop in Q4 sales.

Ferrari NV (RACE.IT)

Shares surged 9.03% to €310.2, reflecting strong investor confidence in the luxury automotive segment.

Cisco Systems (CSCO.US)

Shares fell approximately 7% after missing profit expectations in Q4 earnings, despite some positive earnings beats in the tech sector.

McDonald's (MCD.US)

Despite beating earnings expectations with Q4 comp sales up 5.7%, shares slipped slightly.

AppLovin (APP.US)

Reported earnings that beat expectations, but shares saw notable declines along with some other tech stocks.

Spotify (SPOT.US)

Shares increased following strong Q4 results with growth in monthly active users and premium subscribers.

Alphabet (GOOGL.US)

Raised $20 billion through a corporate bond offering to fund AI business expansion, attracting over $100 billion in investor interest.

Financial Sector

Financial stocks faced pressure due to AI-related fears and rising loan delinquencies, with household debt delinquencies reaching 4.8%, the highest since 2017. Major banks and financial service companies saw notable declines.

Ford Motor (F.US)

Reported a Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.13, missing estimates, and disclosed a net loss of $11.1 billion due to write-downs on its EV programs.

Lyft Inc. (LYFT.US)

Announced a $1 billion share buyback and expects growth in gross bookings.

Energy Sector

BP reported earnings and suspended its share buyback program, while Vistra was upgraded due to improved risk/reward dynamics.

Market Overview

U.S. stocks showed mixed performance with the Dow Jones Industrials reaching a new all-time high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower. Technology stocks rebounded in premarket trading, driven by a two-day rally. Precious metals like gold and silver rebounded, supported by a weaker dollar. Crude oil prices rose amid geopolitical tensions.

Economic Data

  • Retail sales for December remained unchanged, below expectations.
  • Q4 wages and salaries increased by 0.7%, slightly below forecasts.
  • Household debt rose by $191 billion in Q4 2025, with worsening delinquency rates.
  • January nonfarm payroll report expected to show 70,000 new jobs and 4.4% unemployment rate.

Commodities

Gold prices surged by 2% overnight, silver prices rebounded, and U.S. crude oil futures settled slightly lower at $63.96 per barrel.

Summary

The market is navigating mixed signals from economic data and corporate earnings. Technology and luxury sectors showed strength, while financials faced headwinds from AI concerns and rising delinquencies. Investors are closely watching upcoming economic reports for further direction.

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