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1. Market Overview and Indices Performance
Global equity markets have shown mixed but generally positive momentum in early February 2026. Asian markets, led by Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's KOSPI, have reached record highs, marking a strong start to the year. The Nikkei 225 broke the 58,000 mark for the first time, surging nearly 15% year-to-date, while the KOSPI rose about 3%, driven by demand for AI-driven semiconductor chips from companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
European markets experienced modest gains, with the STOXX 600 up 0.7% and the CAC 40 outperforming with a 1.4% rise. Positive earnings from companies such as Legrand, Hermes, and Schroders (which was acquired by Nuveen, causing its shares to soar 30%) supported the market. In the US, major indices like the NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 posted gains of around 0.7% to 1%.
However, some sectors and companies faced challenges, including technology and financials, pressured by concerns over AI impacts and rising loan delinquencies.
2. Corporate Earnings and Sector Highlights
Key Earnings Reports
- Unilever: Shares fell 3% after reporting 4.2% underlying sales growth but missing total revenue estimates (€12.6 billion).
- Mercedes-Benz: Annual profits dropped 57%, mainly due to $1.2 billion in tariff-related costs; operating profit missed forecasts.
- Cisco and Robinhood: Both saw significant share price declines (7% and 9%, respectively) after disappointing quarterly results, especially in crypto-related revenues.
- Kering and Ferrari: Shares surged 7.6% and 9%, respectively, highlighting strength in luxury goods despite broader market fluctuations.
- Biotech and Pharma: Mixed results with INCY down on weak guidance, NKTR positive on eczema drug results, and RGNX facing setbacks.
- Energy and Utilities: BP suspended its share buyback program; Vistra upgraded due to improved risk/reward.
- STMicroelectronics: Shares jumped over 8% after expanding partnership with Amazon Web Services.
- British American Tobacco: Reported stable revenues and slight earnings growth but faces challenges from regulatory pressures and shifting consumer preferences.
Financials are under pressure due to fears of AI disruption and rising household debt delinquencies, with mortgage defaults surging in lower-income areas and student loan delinquencies hitting a record 16.3%.
3. Economic Data and Labor Market
Recent economic data shows mixed signals:
- Retail sales remained flat in December, below expectations.
- Q4 wages and salaries rose 0.7%, slightly under forecasts.
- Household debt increased by $191 billion in Q4 2025, with worsening delinquency rates.
- Foreign investment in emerging markets hit a record $99 billion in January.
- French jobless rate reached a four-year high.
US labor market indicators have been disappointing, with rising jobless claims (highest since December 2025) and weak private payrolls, fueling speculation of a dovish Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report. However, a recent hawkish NFP report sent stocks lower, indicating market sensitivity to labor data. The US yield curve is steepening, reflecting expectations of future Federal Reserve rate cuts, though bond yields remain steady.
4. Commodities and Currencies
Precious metals have shown strength amid economic uncertainty:
- Gold prices hovered around $5,000 per ounce, with recent fluctuations influenced by US labor data and dollar movements.
- Silver saw a robust recovery, rising over 2% to above $82 per ounce.
- Natural gas prices declined due to improved weather forecasts and lower industrial demand.
- Crude oil prices rose modestly amid geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude near $69.75 per barrel.
Currency markets saw the Japanese yen strengthen significantly (largest weekly gain in over a year) following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's election victory, which is expected to support fiscal expansion. The US dollar weakened broadly, pressured by disappointing labor data and dovish expectations, while the Australian dollar reached a three-year high above $0.71. The Chinese yuan appreciated past 6.90 per dollar.
5. Cryptocurrencies and Digital Assets
Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced volatility but show signs of stabilization:
- Bitcoin stabilized above $67,000 after a sharp sell-off, with forecasts suggesting a potential rebound to $80,000 based on futures data and technical analysis.
- Ethereum rebounded after dipping below $2,000.
- Recent Bitcoin declines are attributed to a deflation of overly optimistic expectations, with some analysts warning that the worst may not be over, predicting possible lows between $42,000 and $50,000.
- Crypto-related stocks like Robinhood have suffered due to weak crypto revenues.
6. Credit Markets and Private Debt
The private credit market is expanding rapidly, offering customized loan options outside traditional banks. While this has increased stability for some borrowers, it has also introduced new risks:
- Private credit funds fueled a boom in risky real estate deals, particularly in the home-flipping market, which is now seeing increased foreclosures as the market turns.
- Easy-money loans have backfired on inexperienced investors, highlighting the risks of opaque and complex credit products.
- Regulatory scrutiny is increasing, with concerns about the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's diminished enforcement under current political pressures.
7. Geopolitical and Political Developments
Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, remain a concern with US military assets amassing in the region, potentially impacting commodity prices and market sentiment.
In Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's coalition secured a two-thirds majority, raising expectations for fiscal stimulus measures, including a proposed suspension of sales tax on food, which has influenced currency and equity markets.
In the UK, the acquisition of Schroders by Nuveen marks a significant consolidation in asset management, ending over two centuries of independence for the firm.
8. Market Outlook and Investment Considerations
Investors are advised to monitor upcoming US employment data closely, as it will be critical in shaping market direction and Federal Reserve policy expectations. The mixed economic signals and sector performances suggest a cautious approach, with attention to:
- Potential volatility in the US dollar and bond markets.
- Sector-specific risks, especially in financials and technology, due to AI impacts and credit concerns.
- Opportunities in luxury goods and semiconductor sectors, which have shown resilience and growth.
- Cryptocurrency market risks and potential rebounds.
- Credit market risks related to private debt and real estate financing.
Technical analysis of major indices like the S&P 500 and ASX 200 indicates ongoing upward trends but with key resistance levels that may lead to consolidation or pullbacks.
9. Security and Online Trading Environment
Security remains a paramount concern in online trading platforms. Robust verification processes, including identity checks and cybersecurity measures such as those provided by Cloudflare, are essential to protect users from unauthorized access, data breaches, and cyber attacks. Users and platforms alike must remain vigilant to safeguard financial transactions and personal information in an increasingly digital trading environment.
Equity Markets
US equity markets show mixed but generally resilient performance amid evolving macroeconomic signals:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average has appreciated about 4% year-to-date, favoring value stocks over growth, while the S&P 500 rose approximately 1%, and the Nasdaq 100 slightly declined by 0.2%.
- Small-cap stocks, tracked by the Russell 2000, have outperformed with an 8% year-to-date gain, indicating broadening market participation and a rotation towards smaller companies amid declining US interest rates.
- Sector-wise, semiconductors have surged (~17% YTD) driven by AI demand, banking sectors show strength with regional banks up ~12%, and industrials have reached new highs.
- Technical indicators for the Dow Jones remain bullish with aligned moving averages supporting further upside potential.
In Europe, the FTSE 100 reached a fresh record despite disappointing UK GDP growth, led by strong bank sector performance. The UK economy showed soft growth (0.1% Q4), with mixed sector contributions and limited market reaction to the data.
Fixed Income and Currency Markets
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) has weakened to around 96.5, pressured by weak retail sales and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Political tensions around Fed independence add to dollar volatility.
- Japanese Government Bonds rallied following political stability assurances, with the yen recovering against the dollar. USD/JPY faces key resistance levels, with a bearish trend possible if support breaks.
- China's reduction in US Treasury holdings to the lowest since 2008 reflects caution on US debt, contributing to dollar weakness and supporting gold prices.
Commodities and Precious Metals
- Gold leads precious metals with a ~17% year-to-date gain, supported by geopolitical risks, weak US dollar, and expectations of Fed easing. Prices hover above $5,000 per ounce, with technical analysis indicating a mature corrective phase but within a broader bullish cycle.
- Silver and other metals show positive momentum but require key technical breakouts to confirm sustained uptrends.
- Oil prices remain stable with Brent near $69 and WTI consolidating; geopolitical tensions and resilient US fuel demand underpin support despite rising inventories.
Cryptocurrency Market
Bitcoin and Ethereum recently experienced sharp drawdowns but show signs of stabilization:
- Volatility driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, liquidity conditions, and risk appetite shifts.
- Bitcoin acts as a macro proxy, while Ethereum is more sensitive to ecosystem developments and DeFi activity.
- Institutional flows remain cautious, with selective buying in crypto-linked equities but ongoing liquidations in Ether futures.
- Key indicators to watch include macro narratives, market risk sentiment, and capital flows via ETFs and options.
Macroeconomic Factors and Outlook
- US labor market data surprised positively with 130,000 jobs added in January and unemployment falling to 4.3%, exceeding expectations and supporting stable fuel demand.
- Retail sales data disappointed, remaining flat, increasing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2026.
- Political pressures on the Fed and geopolitical tensions, especially involving Iran and Russia, continue to influence market sentiment and risk premiums.
- Global economic dynamics include a K-shaped recovery pattern, AI and US-China geopolitical races, and competition for funding between private and public sectors.
- European growth forecasts remain modest with inflation undershooting expectations, while Japan's political stability supports fiscal expansion and bond market strength.
Technical and Sentiment Highlights
- Gold's Elliott Wave analysis suggests the current rally is near completion with a likely corrective phase ahead, with key support levels between $4,950 and $4,200.
- US equity technicals show bullish alignment in major indices, though volatility remains elevated due to macro uncertainties.
- Digital assets exhibit cautious sentiment with mixed ETF flows and ongoing liquidation pressures in altcoins like Ether.
- Seasonal patterns and behavioral finance models support continued momentum in equities but advise caution amid potential volatility spikes.
Summary Table: Key Market Levels
| Asset | Key Support | Key Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,950 - $4,650 | $5,100 - $5,150 |
| Silver (XAG/USD) | $64 | $100 |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.50 | $72 - $79 |
| WTI Crude Oil | $61.50 | $66.50 - $69 |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 95.55 | 97.00 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $67,000 | $70,000 |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2,000 | $2,100 |
| Dow Jones | 48,400 | 50,600 |
Conclusion
The current market environment is characterized by a blend of optimism and caution. Strong labor market data and sector-specific strength support equities, while weak retail sales and political pressures fuel expectations of monetary easing, benefiting safe havens like gold. Cryptocurrencies remain volatile but show tentative signs of stabilization. Investors should monitor key economic releases, geopolitical developments, and technical levels across asset classes to navigate the evolving landscape effectively.
Market Overview
US equity futures opened modestly higher following a mixed finish the previous day, buoyed by optimism around trade relations and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later in 2026. The S&P 500 futures rose by 21 points, and Nasdaq futures gained 100 points, reflecting cautious optimism despite strong labor market data that tempered immediate rate cut expectations.
Major indices like the Dow Jones and S&P 500 are showing bullish trends, with the S&P 500 nearing the 7,000-point mark, driven by large-cap technology firms such as Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta. A daily close above 7,000 could lead to new all-time highs, although failure to hold this level may trigger a pullback.
Meanwhile, the labor market remains resilient with January payrolls increasing by 130,000, exceeding expectations, and unemployment rates steady. This strength has reduced the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts but has not eliminated the possibility of cuts later in the year, particularly by June.
Sector and Corporate Highlights
- Technology: Large-cap tech stocks lead gains with Nvidia up over 1%, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta each rising around 0.5-0.6%. However, some tech earnings have disappointed, with Amazon shares down 10% recently due to AI-related costs.
- Telecom: T-Mobile US (TMUS) shares fell over 5% after missing subscriber growth targets, though technical analysis suggests potential accumulation opportunities on pullbacks.
- Healthcare: Moderna shares dropped nearly 10% after regulatory setbacks, while Gilead Sciences and Kraft Heinz also saw declines due to earnings misses and strategic changes.
- Semiconductors: STMicroelectronics surged over 8% following a major partnership expansion with Amazon Web Services, positioning it as a key supplier for AWS infrastructure.
- Consumer Goods: McDonald's and Cisco beat earnings expectations, with Cisco raising guidance and increasing dividends.
- Automotive: Ford showed minor gains despite a disappointing Q4, while Mercedes-Benz reported a 57% drop in operating profit due to tariffs and competition.
Commodities and Currencies
Precious metals have shown mixed performance: silver confirmed a bullish reversal, breaking above $83.78 and reclaiming its 50-day moving average, while gold pulled back slightly, trading below $5,100 per ounce. Natural gas prices are under pressure, nearing recent lows, with a bearish short-term outlook.
Oil prices remain supported by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, with WTI crude trading around $64.30 and Brent crude near $69.05. Technical analysis suggests buying opportunities near support levels with targets slightly higher.
The US Dollar has rebounded from earlier lows following strong nonfarm payroll data, with key resistance and support levels identified ahead of upcoming CPI reports. The British Pound showed slight gains despite UK economic stagnation, while the Canadian Dollar remains stable with expectations of gradual appreciation.
Fixed Income and Bonds
US Treasury yields have decreased slightly, with the 30-year bond closing at 116.796. Technical indicators for the 30-year bond suggest a bullish outlook with multiple moving averages signaling long positions. The 2-year bond shows mixed signals but remains generally supported by short-term moving averages.
Cryptocurrency Market
XRP has experienced a decline below $1.4, pressured by strong US jobs data that reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts, negatively impacting crypto sentiment. Despite this, XRP-spot ETFs have seen $1.23 billion in inflows, indicating rising institutional demand. Technical analysis shows bearish momentum below key moving averages, with support at $1.0 and medium-term price targets of $2.5 to $3.0.
Bitcoin has stabilized above $67,000 after a recent sell-off, while Ethereum is rebounding after dipping below $2,000. Regulatory and legislative developments, including delays in the US Market Structure Bill, continue to influence crypto market dynamics.
Political and Economic Developments
The US House of Representatives voted to lift tariffs imposed on Canada, signaling bipartisan efforts to challenge executive trade authority, though Senate approval and presidential signature are pending. Trade optimism is also supported by potential extensions of the US-China trade war truce, with an anticipated meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping in April.
US budget deficit decreased in January due to a surge in tariff revenues, though rising debt servicing costs and the absence of rapid interest rate cuts continue to pressure public finances. The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs poses risks to future revenue collections.
Upcoming Key Events
- US January Nonfarm Payrolls report (expected increase to 70,000 payrolls, steady unemployment at 4.4%)
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Existing Home Sales for January
- IEA Monthly Oil Market Report
- Japan PPI and UK GDP preliminary data releases
Summary
The US market on February 12, 2026, is characterized by cautious optimism amid strong labor data, mixed corporate earnings, and geopolitical developments. Technology and semiconductor sectors lead gains, while fixed income and commodities reflect ongoing global uncertainties. Cryptocurrency markets face pressure from macroeconomic factors but show signs of institutional interest. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming economic data and legislative developments closely as they will shape market direction in the near term.
Kering SA (KER.FR)
Shares rose by 7.63% to €281, driven by positive market sentiment in the luxury goods sector despite a smaller-than-expected drop in Q4 sales.
Ferrari NV (RACE.IT)
Shares surged 9.03% to €310.2, reflecting strong investor confidence in the luxury automotive segment.
Cisco Systems (CSCO.US)
Shares fell approximately 7% after missing profit expectations in Q4 earnings, despite some positive earnings beats in the tech sector.
McDonald's (MCD.US)
Despite beating earnings expectations with Q4 comp sales up 5.7%, shares slipped slightly.
AppLovin (APP.US)
Reported earnings that beat expectations, but shares saw notable declines along with some other tech stocks.
Spotify (SPOT.US)
Shares increased following strong Q4 results with growth in monthly active users and premium subscribers.
Alphabet (GOOGL.US)
Raised $20 billion through a corporate bond offering to fund AI business expansion, attracting over $100 billion in investor interest.
Financial Sector
Financial stocks faced pressure due to AI-related fears and rising loan delinquencies, with household debt delinquencies reaching 4.8%, the highest since 2017. Major banks and financial service companies saw notable declines.
Ford Motor (F.US)
Reported a Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.13, missing estimates, and disclosed a net loss of $11.1 billion due to write-downs on its EV programs.
Lyft Inc. (LYFT.US)
Announced a $1 billion share buyback and expects growth in gross bookings.
Energy Sector
BP reported earnings and suspended its share buyback program, while Vistra was upgraded due to improved risk/reward dynamics.
Market Overview
U.S. stocks showed mixed performance with the Dow Jones Industrials reaching a new all-time high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower. Technology stocks rebounded in premarket trading, driven by a two-day rally. Precious metals like gold and silver rebounded, supported by a weaker dollar. Crude oil prices rose amid geopolitical tensions.
Economic Data
- Retail sales for December remained unchanged, below expectations.
- Q4 wages and salaries increased by 0.7%, slightly below forecasts.
- Household debt rose by $191 billion in Q4 2025, with worsening delinquency rates.
- January nonfarm payroll report expected to show 70,000 new jobs and 4.4% unemployment rate.
Commodities
Gold prices surged by 2% overnight, silver prices rebounded, and U.S. crude oil futures settled slightly lower at $63.96 per barrel.
Summary
The market is navigating mixed signals from economic data and corporate earnings. Technology and luxury sectors showed strength, while financials faced headwinds from AI concerns and rising delinquencies. Investors are closely watching upcoming economic reports for further direction.