AI-driven quant research & market intelligence platform
Know the regime. Know the bias. Trade with a plan.
Know the regime
Risk-on/off, volatility and data driven context (40+ quant models) — so you stop guessing.
Know the bias
Today vs modeled future across timeframes (short, mid, 6–12 months).
Know what matters today
Key levels, invalidations, movers, watchlists — the “what to check first” scan.
Then $99/month. Cancel anytime.
Portal preview: today vs future projection for Bitcoin, built to answer fast — “what’s the future projection bias, and what do I do, what would change it?”
See what’s inside →
1. Global Market Overview
Financial markets in mid-February 2026 are characterized by subdued volatility due to multiple bank holidays in major economies such as China (Lunar New Year), the US (Presidents' Day), and Canada. Asian markets are quiet with muted trading volumes, while European markets show modest gains, particularly in financial sectors. US markets are mixed with some indices down due to concerns over AI sector volatility and inflation data.
US Equities and Sector Rotation
- The S&P 500 has declined for the second consecutive week, down 1.4%, despite strong Q4 2025 earnings where 83% of companies beat expectations with 13% blended earnings growth.
- Technology and communication services sectors are lagging, pressured by AI-related valuation corrections and investor caution.
- Value-oriented and interest-rate sensitive sectors like utilities and real estate are outperforming.
- Small and mid-cap indices (Russell 2000 and Mid-cap) have outperformed large caps, reflecting a leadership rotation.
European and Asian Markets
- European equities are steady to positive, with the STOXX 600 up 0.3%, supported by defensive sectors and manufacturing linked to AI advancements.
- Japan's GDP growth disappointed with only 0.1% growth in Q4 2025, below expectations, leading to a weaker yen and cautious investor sentiment.
- Japanese government bonds rallied, with yields dropping after successful auctions, reflecting reduced fiscal concerns.
- Asian markets remain subdued due to Lunar New Year holidays, with the Nikkei down slightly and Hong Kong mixed.
2. Currency Markets
- The US dollar is consolidating, with expectations of a "USD rebalancing" phase. Key upcoming US data (core PCE, PMI, FOMC minutes) will influence dollar direction.
- The Japanese yen weakened following disappointing GDP data but rebounded after bond auctions, trading around 153 per USD.
- The British pound remains stable but weakened after poor UK labor market data, with markets pricing in a high probability of Bank of England rate cuts in March and April.
- Australian dollar is currently the best performing G10 currency amid mixed global sentiment.
3. Fixed Income and Interest Rates
- US Treasury yields are hovering near critical levels, with the 10-year yield around 4%, showing a potential Head & Shoulders pattern that could signal a decline to 2.5%.
- US 2-year yields fell below 3.41%, the lowest since 2022, reflecting market expectations of rate cuts.
- Japan's bond yield curve steepened after weak GDP data and strong bond auctions.
- Market positioning remains cautious ahead of key economic releases, including Federal Reserve minutes and inflation data.
4. Commodities
Precious Metals
- Gold prices have retreated, trading below key Fibonacci retracement levels (~5000 USD for Gold USD100 CFD), pressured by a stronger US dollar and reduced geopolitical tensions.
- Technical analysis suggests potential long positions if gold breaks above 50% Fibonacci retracement (~5010), with targets near 5140; short positions advised if resistance holds.
- Silver prices declined, struggling to hold above $78, with a gold/silver ratio above 65 indicating bearish silver sentiment.
- Platinum and copper prices are also under pressure amid subdued demand and geopolitical developments.
Energy and Other Commodities
- Brent crude oil prices fell below $68 per barrel due to inventory builds and easing geopolitical risks, with WTI showing slight gains.
- Natural gas prices dropped nearly 7% due to forecasts of warmer temperatures.
- Market focus is on upcoming US-Iran negotiations, which could impact oil supply expectations.
5. Cryptocurrency Market
- Bitcoin is consolidating near $68,000 to $69,000, with recent sell-offs causing short-term holder losses of $2.3 billion.
- Market capitalization remains stagnant around $2.35 trillion, indicating bearish sentiment.
- Ethereum has declined by a third since early 2026, trading below $2,000, despite record network usage and whale accumulation.
- Analysts suggest potential for a long-term breakout driven by tokenization of real assets and increased corporate DeFi investment, but volatility is expected.
- Notable corporate news includes Coinbase's $667 million Q4 net loss and Bhutan's ongoing Bitcoin reserve sales.
6. Currency Pair Focus: GBP/USD
- GBP/USD has shown resilience amid a weak US dollar, supported by softer US inflation data (CPI at 2.4% YoY).
- Technical support is identified between 1.3500 and 1.3565, with resistance near 1.3700 and 1.3790; a break below support could signal further downside.
- Upcoming UK CPI and wage data will be critical for Bank of England rate decisions, with markets pricing in rate cuts in the near term.
- Housing market shows stable asking prices but rising inventory, suggesting limited price growth until mortgage affordability improves.
7. Equity Indices and Trade Highlights
- FRA40 (Euronext Paris) is modestly up (+0.28%), supported by positive Eurozone economic data and corporate earnings.
- FTSE 100 shows aggressive dip-buying with support around 10,400 and resistance near 10,500; housebuilders benefit from rate cut expectations.
- Japanese Nikkei 225 declined 0.6%, pressured by SoftBank and other large caps, with fading momentum after political events.
- European defense stocks declined amid hopes for diplomatic resolutions in Ukraine and US-Iran talks.
8. Macro and Geopolitical Themes
- Markets are sensitive to geopolitical developments, including US-Iran nuclear negotiations and peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, which influence risk premiums in commodities and equities.
- AI sector sentiment has shifted from exuberance to caution, with investors reassessing which companies will benefit or suffer from AI adoption, leading to increased volatility in technology stocks.
- Central banks remain in focus, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain rates in the near term but with potential cuts later in 2026, while the Bank of Japan faces challenges tightening policy amid weak growth.
9. Upcoming Economic Events
- US: Federal Reserve minutes, core PCE inflation data, Empire Manufacturing index, and TIC report.
- UK: CPI, wage data, employment figures, and retail sales.
- Eurozone: ZEW survey and various EU economic sentiment indicators.
- New Zealand: Reserve Bank rate decision under new Governor Anna Breman.
10. Investment and Trading Insights
- Traders are advised to monitor key technical levels in gold, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD for potential entry and exit points.
- Volatility remains elevated, especially in AI-related equities and digital assets, warranting cautious positioning.
- CFD trading remains high risk, with a significant percentage of retail accounts losing money; understanding leverage and risk management is critical.
- Opportunities exist in US mid-cap stocks, international small- and mid-cap equities, and emerging markets, despite short-term uncertainties.
Global Market Overview
Markets are currently characterized by cautious optimism amid mixed macroeconomic signals. Major equity indices in Europe have reached new record highs, driven by strong corporate earnings and easing inflation pressures. In contrast, U.S. markets show resilience with slight gains after recent volatility, while Asian markets remain subdued due to regional holidays and mixed economic data.
Investor sentiment is influenced by ongoing geopolitical developments, central bank policy expectations, and technological sector dynamics, particularly related to AI advancements and regulatory uncertainties.
Equity Markets
Europe
- The Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx Europe 600 indices have set new record highs, supported by strong earnings and rotation into cyclical sectors such as defense, banking, and commodities.
- UK markets are buoyed by declining inflation (3.0% in January) and expectations of Bank of England rate cuts as early as March 2026, despite rising unemployment to 5.2%.
- French CAC 40 hit historic highs near 8,437 points, reflecting robust Q4 GDP growth of 1.1% and positive corporate earnings.
United States
- Major indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones showed modest gains, recovering from earlier losses. The technology sector led gains, with key players such as Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia contributing.
- Investor caution remains due to AI-related sector volatility and mixed earnings results, though 66% of S&P 500 companies beat revenue expectations in Q4.
- Year-to-date, mid-cap and small-cap indices outperform large caps, with the S&P Mid Cap 400 up 7.8% and Russell 2000 up 6.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite lags with a -3.0% return.
Asia
- Asian markets are quiet due to Lunar New Year holidays, with Japan's Nikkei showing modest gains despite disappointing Q4 GDP growth of 0.1%.
- Emerging markets, particularly technology-heavy regions like Korea, have performed strongly, with MSCI Emerging Markets up 11% year-to-date.
Fixed Income and Currency Markets
- U.S. Treasury yields have stabilized, with the 10-year yield around 4.05% and the 2-year yield near 3.41%, reflecting market anticipation of Federal Reserve policy moves.
- The U.S. dollar has regained strength, with the DXY index above 97, pressuring EUR/USD below 1.1850. The euro and British pound show relative firmness but face resistance levels.
- Yen movements reflect yield differentials and rate repricing, initially strengthening before stabilizing.
Commodities
- Gold: Gold prices have been volatile, influenced by softer U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and geopolitical developments such as U.S.-Iran trade negotiations. Prices recently retreated to around $4,850-$5,000 per ounce, with technical resistance near $5,100-$5,120 and support around $4,880.
- Silver and Platinum: Silver faces challenges with prices struggling above $78 and a high gold/silver ratio, while platinum remains pressured below $2,000 but could gain momentum if it breaks above $2,040.
- Oil: Brent crude prices fell below $68 per barrel due to inventory builds and easing geopolitical tensions.
Cryptocurrency Market
Bitcoin has stabilized after a sharp sell-off earlier in the year, holding above $60,000 but remaining below key resistance levels near $90,000. The market is influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty, regulatory ambiguity, and inconsistent institutional flows. Despite short-term volatility, on-chain data suggests strong long-term holding behavior among investors.
Macroeconomic Factors and Outlook
- U.S. labor market remains robust with 130,000 jobs added in January and unemployment at 4.3%, supporting a cautious Federal Reserve stance with limited expectations for rate cuts before mid-2026.
- Inflation is moderating, with CPI easing to 2.4% year-over-year and core inflation sticky around 2.5%, contributing to a mixed outlook on monetary policy.
- Durable goods orders and industrial production data released recently indicate ongoing strength in manufacturing, supporting economic growth forecasts.
- Geopolitical developments, including U.S.-Iran negotiations and Ukraine peace efforts, are key risk factors influencing safe-haven demand and market sentiment.
- AI-related sector disruptions and concerns about an AI bubble are shaping investor behavior, with a rotation from growth to defensive sectors observed.
Sector Highlights and Corporate Developments
- Technology sector shows mixed performance; major companies like Alibaba and Micron are investing heavily in AI and chip manufacturing.
- Financials and defense sectors in Europe are leading gains, with companies like BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce reporting strong profits.
- Consumer staples face headwinds, with companies like General Mills lowering forecasts and seeing stock declines.
- Notable M&A activity includes Danaher's acquisition of Masimo and Kennedy Wilson's buyout.
Market Summary
US stock markets showed resilience after earlier losses, with modest gains across major indices. The S&P 500 closed at 6,843.22 (+0.10%), Dow Jones Industrial Average at 49,787 (+0.35%), and Nasdaq Composite at 24,893 (+0.51%). The recovery was led by technology giants such as Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia, despite ongoing concerns about AI disruption and geopolitical risks.
However, the market remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions surrounding US-Iran talks in Geneva, with potential military action against Iran posing a significant risk to market sentiment.
Sector Performance Highlights
- Technology: The sector rebounded 0.5%, driven by strong performances from Apple, Nvidia, and Broadcom. Software stocks, however, declined by 1.6% amid competition concerns from China’s Alibaba.
- Financials: Gained 1.0%, boosted by major banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, and Fiserv after activist investor news.
- Consumer Staples: Declined 1.5%, pressured by General Mills, which dropped 7% after lowering its full-year outlook.
- Energy: Fell 1.4% due to a drop in crude oil prices amid geopolitical uncertainty.
- Industrials and Materials: Mixed results with Leidos beating Q4 estimates and ZIM Integrated Shipping being acquired.
Key Economic Indicators and Market Drivers
The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.053%, down from earlier highs, reflecting cautious investor positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming minutes and the Q4 GDP report. ADP employment data and the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index are expected to influence Fed rate cut expectations, with the probability of a March cut declining but June cuts still anticipated.
Inflation data showed a year-over-year headline rate of 2.4%, the lowest since May, with core CPI easing to 2.5%, supporting expectations for Fed easing later in 2026.
Technical Market Outlook
Major Indices
- Dow Jones: Trading near 49,787 with resistance at 50,000 and support at the 50-day EMA (~48,998). The Dow shows a bullish bias, holding above key moving averages.
- S&P 500: Resistance at 6,904 (50-day EMA) and support at 6,750. The index remains cautiously bullish with potential upside on Fed rate cut expectations.
- Nasdaq 100: Currently at 24,893, facing resistance at 25,000 and support at 24,500. February has seen a 3.3% decline, typical seasonal weakness, but technicals suggest a possible swing low and recovery ahead.
US Dollar Index (DXY)
The DXY trades around 97.22, within a tightening triangle pattern. Key resistance is at 97.60 and 97.98, with support at 96.83 and 96.34. A break above 97.98 could signal a trend reversal, while a drop below 96.48 would continue the downtrend.
US Bond Market
| Instrument | Last Close | Signal | Technical Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 2-Year Treasury | 104.286 | Sell | Mixed, mostly long-term EMAs bullish |
| US 5-Year Treasury | 109.546 | Buy | Predominantly bullish EMAs |
| US 10-Year Treasury | 113.102 | Sell | Mostly bullish EMAs but short-term caution |
| US 30-Year Treasury | 118.077 | Sell | Long-term bullish EMAs with some short-term bearish signals |
Commodities and Cryptocurrencies
- Gold: Prices rebounded above $4,900, supported by geopolitical uncertainties.
- Silver: Declined by 1.2%, trading near $74.
- Natural Gas: Fell nearly 7% due to forecasts of warmer temperatures.
- Crude Oil: Testing support around $64.44-$62.07; geopolitical tensions with Iran influence prices.
- Bitcoin: Trading near $68,000, slightly down amid market stabilization efforts.
Geopolitical and Global Market Context
US-Iran talks in Geneva are a focal point, with the risk of military escalation if talks fail. This uncertainty is weighing on risk appetite in US markets. Additionally, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy remains a key watchpoint, with expectations for gradual rate normalization by 2027.
Globally, investors show a rotation from US equities to European markets, with 85% expecting European outperformance over the next year. Emerging markets also attract significant overweight positions.
Outlook and Conclusion
The US market outlook remains cautiously bullish in the medium term, supported by expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts in H1 2026. However, risks from geopolitical tensions, AI sector disruptions, and global monetary policy shifts persist. Investors should monitor upcoming economic data releases, including the Federal Reserve minutes, Q4 GDP, and PCE reports, which will be critical in shaping near-term market trends.
Technical indicators suggest key support and resistance levels to watch across major indices and instruments, with a focus on risk management amid ongoing volatility.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon shares closed at $198.79, down 0.41%, extending a nine-day losing streak, the longest since 2006. Concerns stem from the company's 2026 capital expenditure guidance of $200 billion, well above Wall Street's $150 billion estimate, causing a 23% drop from its November high and nearing critical support at $191.
Antofagasta PLC (ANTO)
Antofagasta reported record EBITDA and revenue for fiscal 2025, driven by increased copper production and favorable market conditions. Despite this, the share price fell 7.11% due to investor concerns about future growth and operational challenges.
US Equities
- S&P 500: +0.1% to 6,836.17
- Dow Jones: +0.1% to 49,500.93
- Nasdaq Composite: -0.2% to 22,546.67
Markets showed mixed results with cautious sentiment ahead of key economic data releases including the FOMC minutes and Q4 GDP report.
European Markets
European indices gained modestly, led by financials and banks such as NatWest (+4.93%). The STOXX 600 rose 0.3%, despite some weakness on Wall Street. Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index came in lower than expected at 58.3 versus a forecast of 65.2.
Forex
- EUR/USD: 1.1830, bearish below 1.1765 with targets near 1.1670.
- GBP/USD: dropped to 1.3550, bearish momentum with support at 1.3510 and 1.3460.
- USD/JPY: trading at 153.10, yen strengthened despite weak Japanese GDP growth.
Commodities
- Gold: down 1.63%, trading near $4,911.58.
- Silver: down 2.3%, trading near $74.
- Brent crude: steady around $68, with slight corrections ahead of US-Iran talks.
- Natural gas: dropped nearly 7% due to warmer weather forecasts.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin is stabilizing near £68,000 after recent sell-offs. XRP rebounded from $1.12 to $1.67 driven by positive regulatory sentiment, including Ripple CEO's appointment to the CFTC advisory panel, though technical indicators remain cautious.
Key Economic Events
Investors are focused on upcoming releases including the German ZEW index, Canadian CPI, US FOMC minutes, and Q4 GDP data. These will be critical for assessing inflation trends and monetary policy direction.
Notable Earnings
Today: BHP Group reports earnings. This week also features Medtronic, Palo Alto Networks, Walmart, Alibaba, and others.