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Global Equity Markets
U.S. equity markets showed mixed performance recently. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new all-time highs with a slight gain of 0.1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declined modestly by approximately 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively. The tech sector faced pressure due to disappointing earnings and margin outlooks, notably Cisco Systems' 12% plunge and Apple’s 5% drop, reflecting investor concerns about AI impacts and memory-chip pricing pressures.
European markets were mostly negative, with the German DAX, British FTSE 100, and Spanish IBEX 35 all declining, except for the French CAC 40 which managed a slight gain. The DAX futures (DE40) outperformed peers with a 1.13% rise, driven by strong earnings and a rebound in risk appetite.
Asian markets experienced volatility; the Nikkei 225 hit record highs but later retreated amid a global tech sell-off. The Hang Seng index declined 2.1%, while the KOSPI gained 3%, supported by strong demand for AI-driven semiconductor chips from companies like Samsung and SK Hynix.
| Index | Change | Percentage | Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial | +52.27 | +0.10% | 50,188 |
| S&P 500 | -23.04 | -0.33% | 6,941 |
| Nasdaq | -136.20 | -0.59% | 23,102 |
| Nikkei 225 | Varied | +/- | 57,639.84 (peak) |
Macroeconomic Data and Central Bank Outlook
- U.S. Jobs Report: January Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 130,000, exceeding expectations of 70,000, with unemployment falling to 4.3%. However, revisions to prior data showed a slowdown in hiring, with average monthly gains for the previous year revised down to 15,000.
- Retail Sales: December retail sales in the U.S. were flat (0.0%), below the expected 0.4% growth, signaling potential consumer spending weakness.
- Federal Reserve: The Fed is expected to hold rates steady until mid-2026, with market pricing anticipating a possible rate cut in June. Fed officials emphasize patience to assess the impact of prior rate hikes.
- UK Economy: GDP growth stagnated at 0.1% in Q4 2025, increasing pressure on the Bank of England to consider more aggressive rate cuts. The British Pound showed resilience despite a high trade deficit.
- European Data: Germany’s current account surplus declined slightly; UK economic growth was below forecasts.
Fixed Income and Volatility
U.S. Treasury yields declined amid equity sell-offs and weak retail sales data, with the 2-year yield at 3.45% and the 10-year at 4.14%. European yields also fell. The VIX volatility index remains contained around 17.79 but has seen short-term spikes due to CPI data anticipation.
Commodities and Energy Markets
- Oil: WTI crude oil prices fluctuated around $63-$65 per barrel. Prices rose due to increased demand from India and Middle East tensions, including stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and risk premiums in the Strait of Hormuz. However, rumors of potential OPEC+ production increases in April caused recent price drops.
- Gold and Precious Metals: Gold prices hovered near $5,000 per ounce, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts but faced downward pressure recently. Silver remained above $80, with increased U.S. scrap sales helping alleviate supply deficits. Palladium and platinum also declined modestly.
- Agricultural Commodities: Mixed performance observed, with grains showing some weakness amid broader commodity softness.
Currencies
- The Japanese Yen strengthened significantly, with USD/JPY dipping below 153.00, marking its best weekly performance in over a year, influenced by political developments in Japan.
- The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) weakened to around 96.80 despite strong U.S. jobs data, pressured by mixed economic signals and safe-haven flows.
- The British Pound appreciated modestly against the USD, nearing $1.37, supported by UK economic resilience and dollar softness.
- The Euro and British Pound saw slight declines against other currencies, while the Australian Dollar reached a three-year high due to hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia policies.
Corporate Earnings and Sector Highlights
- Technology: Sector under pressure due to AI-related fears and disappointing earnings. Cisco Systems’ shares plunged 12%, Apple fell 5%, and European tech firms like Dassault Systèmes faced steep declines. Applied Materials and Arista Networks earnings are awaited.
- Financials: Declines driven by concerns over AI impacts and rising loan delinquencies, with household debt delinquencies at 4.8%, mortgage defaults surging in lower-income areas, and student loan delinquencies hitting a record 16.3%. UK wealth management firms saw sharp selloffs due to AI tax tool threats.
- Consumer Goods: Coca-Cola missed revenue expectations despite EPS growth; Hasbro announced new licensing partnerships; Wingstop downgraded due to negative same-store sales growth.
- Energy: BP reported earnings and suspended share buybacks; Vistra upgraded on improved risk/reward; oil sector influenced by geopolitical tensions.
- Biotech & Pharma: Mixed results with INCY shares falling on weak guidance, NKTR positive on eczema drug, and RGNX facing setbacks.
- Notable Company Reports: British American Tobacco reported stable revenues but faces challenges from regulatory pressures and shifting consumer preferences. Datadog posted strong revenue growth of 29% YoY, beating expectations.
Digital Assets and Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrency markets remain cautious but show signs of stabilization. Bitcoin stabilized above $67,000 after a sharp sell-off, while Ethereum rebounded after dipping below $2,000. Coinbase reported a $667 million loss with a 20% revenue decline, highlighting pressures from a cooling crypto market. Political developments include Senate Banking Committee oversight of investigations related to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Technological Advancements and Investment Outlook
Quantum computing companies are advancing, with IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc making progress in R&D, commercial applications, and financial performance. Despite recent stock sell-offs, the sector’s long-term growth potential remains significant due to breakthroughs in qubit performance and quantum algorithms.
In the AI hardware sector, NVIDIA stands out with superior profitability metrics, including a gross margin of 73.4% and ROE of 99.2%, outperforming competitors like Supermicro. Strong demand for AI chips and improving trade relations support a positive investment outlook for NVIDIA.
Upcoming Events and Market Outlook
- Key upcoming U.S. economic data releases include January Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports, which are expected to influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and market sentiment.
- Options expiry and technical levels in indices such as the ASX 200 (critical 9000 level) are being closely monitored by traders.
- Geopolitical developments, especially in the Middle East and U.S.-Iran relations, remain key risk factors for commodities and global markets.
Global Equity Markets
Equity markets are experiencing significant volatility driven by sector rotation and macroeconomic uncertainties:
- US Markets: Major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have declined recently, pressured by fears around artificial intelligence (AI) disruption and disappointing earnings from key tech companies such as Cisco and Apple. The Dow Jones has shown resilience with a modest decline and a record high above 50,000, supported by gains in "old economy" sectors like machinery and financials.
- Asia-Pacific: The Nikkei 225 outperformed major US indices with a 2.3% gain, supported by a stronger Japanese yen and domestic consumption. However, the Hang Seng index declined amid tech sector weakness.
- Europe: European markets are cautious, with profit-taking evident and mixed corporate earnings results. The luxury sector remains a bright spot, driven by structural tailwinds.
- Market Sentiment: The MSCI World Index is poised for its first consecutive weekly losses in 2026, reflecting fragile risk appetite amid AI-related concerns and upcoming US inflation data.
Fixed Income and Volatility
- US Treasury yields have declined, with the 2-year yield at 3.45% and the 10-year at 4.14%, as investors seek safe havens amid equity sell-offs.
- Volatility remains contained but elevated in the short term, with the VIX index around 17.79, reflecting market caution ahead of key US economic releases.
Currency Markets
- The Japanese yen has strengthened significantly, trading near 153 per USD, poised for its best weekly performance in over a year. This strength is supported by Bank of Japan policy normalization and domestic economic factors.
- The US dollar index remains neutral around 97.05 but has shown strength following robust US labor market data.
- Other currencies like the euro and British pound have seen slight declines, while the Australian dollar remains resilient due to hawkish central bank stance.
Commodities
- Precious Metals: Gold and silver experienced sharp declines due to a liquidity-driven sell-off but are showing signs of recovery. Gold trades near $4,960, supported by its defensive role amid fragile risk sentiment. Silver is recovering toward $77 but faces resistance near $80.
- Oil: Crude oil prices have been volatile. WTI trades near $62.93 after a recent plunge triggered by rumors of OPEC+ production increases. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and US-Iran talks continue to influence supply risk premiums. Technical levels suggest a cautious outlook with key resistance and support levels closely watched.
- Agricultural Commodities: Mixed performance amid broader commodity weakness driven by AI-related risk-off sentiment.
Digital Assets
Cryptocurrencies remain under pressure amid broader market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty:
- Bitcoin is trading around $60,000, showing cautious investor engagement with selective ETF flows.
- Ethereum and Solana have faced significant sell-offs, with Ether pressured by leveraged liquidations and cautious institutional flows, and Solana down approximately 45% from recent highs due to risk-off sentiment and structural vulnerabilities.
- Market stabilization depends on macroeconomic conditions, including interest rate expectations and risk appetite.
Macroeconomic Factors and Outlook
US Labor Market and Inflation
The US labor market remains resilient with 130,000 jobs added in January, surpassing expectations and lowering the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This strength has pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts from June to July 2026. However, upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, forecasted at 2.5%, is highly anticipated and expected to be a key market catalyst.
Global Economic Developments
- Japan's economy benefits from a stronger yen and domestic demand, supporting equity gains despite global uncertainty.
- The Euro area growth forecast for 2026 has been raised to 1.2%, though inflation undershooting and monetary policy adjustments are expected.
- The UK economy shows signs of stagnation with weak services and construction sectors, raising concerns about the British pound's outlook.
- China's inflation is easing, with producer prices falling, indicating potential challenges for domestic consumption and global trade.
Geopolitical and Policy Risks
Ongoing US-Iran negotiations and Middle East tensions keep oil markets on edge. Discussions around a $550 billion investment vehicle between Japan and the US remain unresolved, adding to global economic uncertainty.
Summary and Strategic Considerations
Markets are navigating a complex environment characterized by:
- Heightened volatility driven by AI-related fears and tech sector sell-offs.
- Mixed signals from economic data, with strong labor markets but cautious inflation outlooks.
- Shifts in investor preference toward defensive assets like gold and "old economy" stocks.
- Uncertainty around central bank policies, especially the timing of Fed rate cuts and BoJ normalization.
Investors should closely monitor upcoming US CPI data, geopolitical developments, and technical levels across asset classes to navigate this evolving landscape.
Market Overview
On February 12, 2026, U.S. stock markets experienced a notable downturn, with all major indexes falling over 1%. The technology sector led the decline, with the XLK sector down 2.5% and the QQQ index down 2%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index dropped more than 2%, and the Dow Jones Transport Average hit one-week lows, pressured by a steep fall in trucking stocks. Defensive sectors such as Staples, Utilities, and REITs showed gains amid the selloff.
Precious metals including gold, silver, and platinum declined sharply, with gold falling nearly 3% to $4,948.50 per ounce. Bitcoin continued its downward trend, trading around $65,000, down significantly from its October 2025 highs. Meanwhile, international markets, especially Japan, showed strength following political developments that boosted investor confidence.
Key Index Performance (Feb 12, 2026 Close)
| Index | Change | % Change | Last Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials | -669.28 | -1.34% | 49,452 |
| S&P 500 | -108.72 | -1.57% | 6,832 |
| Nasdaq | -469.32 | -2.03% | 22,597 |
| Russell 2000 | -53.64 | -2.01% | 2,615 |
Sector and Corporate News
- Technology: The sector faced significant pressure due to fears of AI disruption affecting software, travel, gaming, and logistics stocks. Mega-cap tech companies are struggling amid high capital expenditure plans.
- Autos: Ferrari was upgraded to Neutral from Sell, and BorgWarner received a Buy upgrade due to its strategic pivot into AI data center markets.
- Consumer: McDonald's beat earnings expectations but shares slipped; other consumer companies showed mixed results.
- Energy: OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecast, supported by strong air travel and road mobility. Oil prices declined slightly, with WTI at $62.84 per barrel.
- Financials: Paycom beat earnings but guided lower for FY revenues; RenaissanceRe increased dividends and renewed share repurchase programs.
- Healthcare: ICON shares dropped over 20% due to accounting investigations; other biotech firms reported strong earnings.
Economic Data and Outlook
Recent U.S. economic data showed weaker housing figures, with existing home sales down 8.4% in January, and weekly jobless claims falling to 227,000. Retail sales for December were flat, raising concerns about consumer spending. The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is highly anticipated, with expectations of 0.3% growth in both headline and core CPI. Softer inflation data could support Federal Reserve rate cut expectations later in 2026.
The labor market remains resilient, with strong job growth tempering immediate rate cut expectations but not ruling out cuts by mid-year. Market sentiment is cautiously bullish, supported by anticipated Fed easing, strong corporate earnings, and improving US-China trade relations. However, risks include geopolitical tensions and disappointing economic indicators.
Technical Market Outlook
- Dow Jones: Trading above its 50-day EMA with resistance near 50,611 and support at 48,987.
- S&P 500: Approaching resistance at 7,036 with support at 6,914 (50-day EMA).
- Nasdaq 100: Below its 50-day EMA, resistance at 25,466 and support at 24,106 (200-day EMA), indicating near-term bearishness.
Volatility remains moderate with the VIX around 17.79. The market is in a phase of risk repricing and correction, but underlying technological growth prospects remain strong.
Fixed Income and Commodities
U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 2-year yield at 3.45% and the 10-year yield at 4.14%. Technical analysis of key bond instruments shows bullish signals for the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, with most moving averages indicating long positions.
Gold prices fell sharply but remain supported above $4,900 per ounce amid Fed rate cut expectations. Oil prices softened due to easing Middle East tensions. Agricultural commodities showed mixed performance, with cocoa prices plunging due to increased supply from West Africa.
Cryptocurrency Market
Bitcoin traded near $65,000, down from previous highs, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a strong U.S. dollar and expectations of a prolonged Fed pause. Ethereum also declined to around $1,900. XRP faced pressure due to legislative delays and strong U.S. jobs data, falling below $1.4, though institutional inflows into XRP ETFs remain strong.
Key Instruments Technical Summary (as of February 13, 2026)
| Instrument | Last Price | Signal | Technical Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| USB 30-Year Treasury Bond | 117.416 | Buy | Long on EMA and SMA (10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 200) |
| USB 10-Year Treasury Bond | 112.871 | Buy | Long on EMA and SMA (10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 200) |
| USB 5-Year Treasury Bond | 109.455 | Buy | Long on EMA and SMA (10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 200) |
| USB 2-Year Treasury Bond | 104.278 | Sell | Mixed technicals, mostly long on EMAs and SMAs but sell signal on 9/13 count |
| 5E2 (Euro FX Futures) | 2.10 | Buy | Mixed technicals, mostly long on short EMAs, short on longer-term SMAs |
| 9CI (Crude Oil Futures) | 3.12 | Sell | Mostly long on EMAs and SMAs, but mixed momentum indicators |
Summary
The US market as of February 13, 2026, is navigating a cautious environment marked by technology sector weakness, inflation data anticipation, and mixed economic signals. While short-term volatility and sector-specific challenges persist, the medium-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts, strong corporate earnings, and improving geopolitical relations. Fixed income markets show bullish technical trends, and commodities reflect mixed pressures. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming CPI data and labor market reports closely for further market direction.
Market Indices
- Dow Jones Industrials (DJI): Slightly down, recent close at 49,335 (-0.38%) with futures down 188 points.
- S&P 500: Down 0.33% at 6,828 with futures down 22.25 points.
- Nasdaq: Down 0.38% at 24,675 with a 2%+ decline in recent sessions.
- Russell 2000: Down 2.01% at 2,615.83 recently.
Key Economic Data
- US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is the main focus today, expected to influence Federal Reserve policy.
- Previous US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report showed strong job growth (+130,000) and a drop in unemployment to 4.3%, but market concerns remain about future Fed rate cuts.
- US natural gas inventories reported a smaller than expected drawdown (-249 bcf), with natural gas prices down 2.16% at 3.15.
- US oil inventories showed a significant drop, supporting bullish crude oil prices around $64.84 for WTI.
Sector and Company Highlights
Technology
- Technology sector under pressure with a global sell-off; Nasdaq down 2%+ recently.
- Applied Materials and Arista Networks reported better-than-expected earnings; Pinterest shares declined after mixed results.
- NVIDIA shows strong profitability metrics and is favored over competitors like Supermicro due to superior margins and market position.
Financials
- Financial sector pressured by AI-related fears and rising loan delinquencies; household debt delinquencies at 4.8%, student loan delinquencies at 16.3%.
- Paycom beat earnings but guided lower; RenaissanceRe increased dividends and share repurchases.
- Robinhood shares declined despite revenue growth; Coinbase missed Q4 EPS estimates.
Consumer and Retail
- Ford Motor missed Q4 EPS estimates and reported a net loss due to EV program write-downs.
- AirBnB Q4 EPS below estimates; Dutch Bros and Expedia reported positive earnings and guidance.
- Coca-Cola missed revenue expectations despite EPS beat; announced CEO change.
Energy and Commodities
- WTI crude oil prices up 1.38% to $64.84 amid US-Iran tensions and strong demand from India.
- Natural gas prices down 2.16% following inventory report.
- Gold prices fluctuated but remain near $5,000 per ounce; silver down over 3% recently.
Global Market Overview
- Asian markets declined with Nikkei down 0.68%, Hang Seng down 1.79%, and Shanghai Composite down 0.70%.
- European markets mixed: German DAX down 0.34%, FTSE 100 up slightly, CAC40 down 0.45%.
- Currency markets saw USD/JPY volatility, with resistance near 153.50 and support around 152.10.
Cryptocurrency Market
- Bitcoin down about 2% to below $69,000; Ethereum down about 5% to near $2,000.
- Market cautious amid expectations of a longer Fed pause and economic uncertainties.
Summary
Markets are navigating mixed signals from strong employment data, weak retail sales, and upcoming inflation reports. Technology and financial sectors face pressure from AI concerns and rising delinquencies, while energy benefits from geopolitical tensions and demand growth. Investors await the US CPI data release for clearer guidance on monetary policy.