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Global Macroeconomic Overview
The UK economy is showing signs of stagnation with Q4 2025 GDP growth at a mere 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 1.0% year-over-year, below forecasts and prior quarters. Business investment declined by 2.7%, while household and government consumption saw modest increases. The British Pound reacted with uncertainty, remaining frozen after the data release.
Germany's current account surplus remains stable but with a decline in goods surplus. The US existing home sales dropped 8.4% in January 2026 to 3.91 million units, below expectations, due to persistent low supply despite improved affordability.
Japan's recent Lower House election victory for the Liberal Democratic Party is expected to support the USD/JPY exchange rate and domestic equities. Discussions between Japan and the US on a $550 billion investment vehicle are ongoing without clear decisions yet.
US labor market data showed strength with non-farm payrolls increasing by 130,000 jobs, unemployment falling to 4.3%, and average hourly earnings rising 3.7% year-over-year, supporting a resilient economy.
Monetary Policy and Inflation
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2026 rose 2.4% year-over-year, slightly below expectations, with core CPI at 2.5%, the lowest since 2021. Monthly increases were modest, with core goods prices flat and shelter prices rising 0.2%. This disinflationary trend has led markets to anticipate the Federal Reserve maintaining current rates in the near term, with potential for one or two rate cuts in the latter half of 2026.
In the UK, the Bank of England faces pressure to consider more aggressive interest rate cuts amid economic stagnation and a high trade deficit.
Currency markets saw the US Dollar strengthen on safe-haven demand, while the Japanese Yen's strength eased. The Australian Dollar retreated from recent highs amid diverging central bank policies.
Equity Markets and Sector Rotation
US equity markets showed mixed performance: the S&P 500 remained flat, Dow Jones fell slightly, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index outperformed with a 1% gain. A notable rotation away from growth and technology sectors towards value, materials, industrials, energy, and consumer staples is underway. The S&P 500 software and services industry declined about 20% year-to-date due to AI disruption concerns, while traditional sectors gained over 12%.
European markets experienced profit-taking after a record run, with the STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5%. The FTSE 100 is up 4% year-to-date, benefiting from limited tech exposure. Asian markets were mixed, with Japan's Nikkei 225 flat and Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 0.9% amid global tech sell-offs.
Small- and mid-cap stocks, tracked by the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, have shown strong performance, indicating broadening market participation.
Corporate Earnings Highlights
- Unilever: Shares fell 3% after reporting 4.2% underlying sales growth but missing revenue estimates (€12.6 billion).
- Mercedes-Benz: Annual profits dropped 57%, impacted by $1.2 billion in tariff costs; operating profit missed forecasts (€5.8 billion vs €6.6 billion expected).
- Technology Sector: Cisco shares plunged 7-13% post-earnings due to disappointing margins; Robinhood stock dropped nearly 9% on weak crypto revenues. Apple, Palantir, and AppLovin also faced significant declines.
- Upcoming Reports: Key companies reporting soon include Safran, Enbridge, NatWest, BHP Group, Medtronic, Walmart, Alibaba, and others.
Commodities and Energy Markets
Oil prices have fallen below $65 per barrel amid rumors that OPEC+ may increase production as early as April, raising oversupply concerns. WTI crude is trading near $62.93, with Brent below $68.00. Geopolitical tensions, including US-Iran relations and disruptions in Kazakhstan, provide some support but overall sentiment remains bearish.
Natural gas prices are rebounding, supported by a smaller-than-expected drawdown in US storage. Prices are attempting to break above $3.25 with potential targets near $4.00.
Precious metals saw gold prices drop 3% to around $4,930 per ounce, pressured by a stronger US dollar and the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year market closure. Silver remains above $83, supported by increased scrap sales in the US, potentially easing supply deficits. Platinum trades just above $2,100.
Cryptocurrency and Digital Assets
Bitcoin stabilized above $67,000 after recent volatility, while Ethereum rebounded after dipping below $2,000. Crypto equities remain under pressure, with ETF outflows indicating a defensive market tone. Regulatory and political developments, including investigations related to Federal Reserve officials, are being closely watched.
Technical Market Insights
The S&P 500 faces resistance near its 50-day moving average (~6895), with potential downside risk toward the 200-day average (~6405) if it fails to hold. The Nasdaq 100 is experiencing bearish momentum, with key support at the 200-day EMA (~24,451). The Dow Jones maintains a bullish trend supported by aligned moving averages and positive momentum indicators.
The USD/JPY currency pair recently broke below a rising trend channel floor, suggesting a possible slowdown or sideways movement, with support at 151 and resistance at 159. Volatility metrics indicate moderate fluctuations over various time frames.
Geopolitical and Policy Developments
US-Iran tensions remain a key geopolitical risk, with former President Donald Trump expressing optimism about a potential deal with Iran in the coming weeks. The US military presence in the Persian Gulf has increased, and Israeli calls for dismantling Iran’s missile program add to regional uncertainty.
US-China geopolitical competition and the global AI race are highlighted as major forces shaping economic and investment landscapes. Funding competition between private and public sectors also influences market dynamics.
Investment Outlook and Recommendations
Despite recent volatility and sector rotations, long-term growth prospects remain strong, particularly in AI and quantum computing sectors. Quantum computing companies like IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave are advancing technologically and commercially, though valuations remain volatile.
Investors are advised to monitor key technical levels, inflation data, and geopolitical developments closely. Diversification across sectors, including materials, industrials, energy, and consumer staples, alongside selective exposure to technology and AI, may offer balanced opportunities.
Broader market participation, evidenced by small- and mid-cap strength, supports a constructive equity outlook, while cautious positioning in commodities and currencies is warranted given ongoing uncertainties.
Global Equity Markets
Equity markets are experiencing significant volatility driven by sector rotation and macroeconomic uncertainties:
- US Markets: Major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have declined recently, pressured by fears around artificial intelligence (AI) disruption and disappointing earnings from key tech companies such as Cisco and Apple. The Dow Jones has shown resilience with a modest decline and a record high above 50,000, supported by gains in "old economy" sectors like machinery and financials.
- Asia-Pacific: The Nikkei 225 outperformed major US indices with a 2.3% gain, supported by a stronger Japanese yen and domestic consumption. However, the Hang Seng index declined amid tech sector weakness.
- Europe: European markets are cautious, with profit-taking evident and mixed corporate earnings results. The luxury sector remains a bright spot, driven by structural tailwinds.
- Market Sentiment: The MSCI World Index is poised for its first consecutive weekly losses in 2026, reflecting fragile risk appetite amid AI-related concerns and upcoming US inflation data.
Fixed Income and Volatility
- US Treasury yields have declined, with the 2-year yield at 3.45% and the 10-year at 4.14%, as investors seek safe havens amid equity sell-offs.
- Volatility remains contained but elevated in the short term, with the VIX index around 17.79, reflecting market caution ahead of key US economic releases.
Currency Markets
- The Japanese yen has strengthened significantly, trading near 153 per USD, poised for its best weekly performance in over a year. This strength is supported by Bank of Japan policy normalization and domestic economic factors.
- The US dollar index remains neutral around 97.05 but has shown strength following robust US labor market data.
- Other currencies like the euro and British pound have seen slight declines, while the Australian dollar remains resilient due to hawkish central bank stance.
Commodities
- Precious Metals: Gold and silver experienced sharp declines due to a liquidity-driven sell-off but are showing signs of recovery. Gold trades near $4,960, supported by its defensive role amid fragile risk sentiment. Silver is recovering toward $77 but faces resistance near $80.
- Oil: Crude oil prices have been volatile. WTI trades near $62.93 after a recent plunge triggered by rumors of OPEC+ production increases. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and US-Iran talks continue to influence supply risk premiums. Technical levels suggest a cautious outlook with key resistance and support levels closely watched.
- Agricultural Commodities: Mixed performance amid broader commodity weakness driven by AI-related risk-off sentiment.
Digital Assets
Cryptocurrencies remain under pressure amid broader market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty:
- Bitcoin is trading around $60,000, showing cautious investor engagement with selective ETF flows.
- Ethereum and Solana have faced significant sell-offs, with Ether pressured by leveraged liquidations and cautious institutional flows, and Solana down approximately 45% from recent highs due to risk-off sentiment and structural vulnerabilities.
- Market stabilization depends on macroeconomic conditions, including interest rate expectations and risk appetite.
Macroeconomic Factors and Outlook
US Labor Market and Inflation
The US labor market remains resilient with 130,000 jobs added in January, surpassing expectations and lowering the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This strength has pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts from June to July 2026. However, upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, forecasted at 2.5%, is highly anticipated and expected to be a key market catalyst.
Global Economic Developments
- Japan's economy benefits from a stronger yen and domestic demand, supporting equity gains despite global uncertainty.
- The Euro area growth forecast for 2026 has been raised to 1.2%, though inflation undershooting and monetary policy adjustments are expected.
- The UK economy shows signs of stagnation with weak services and construction sectors, raising concerns about the British pound's outlook.
- China's inflation is easing, with producer prices falling, indicating potential challenges for domestic consumption and global trade.
Geopolitical and Policy Risks
Ongoing US-Iran negotiations and Middle East tensions keep oil markets on edge. Discussions around a $550 billion investment vehicle between Japan and the US remain unresolved, adding to global economic uncertainty.
Summary and Strategic Considerations
Markets are navigating a complex environment characterized by:
- Heightened volatility driven by AI-related fears and tech sector sell-offs.
- Mixed signals from economic data, with strong labor markets but cautious inflation outlooks.
- Shifts in investor preference toward defensive assets like gold and "old economy" stocks.
- Uncertainty around central bank policies, especially the timing of Fed rate cuts and BoJ normalization.
Investors should closely monitor upcoming US CPI data, geopolitical developments, and technical levels across asset classes to navigate this evolving landscape.
Market Overview
On February 12, 2026, U.S. stock markets experienced a notable downturn, with all major indexes falling over 1%. The technology sector led the decline, with the XLK sector down 2.5% and the QQQ index down 2%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index dropped more than 2%, and the Dow Jones Transport Average hit one-week lows, pressured by a steep fall in trucking stocks. Defensive sectors such as Staples, Utilities, and REITs showed gains amid the selloff.
Precious metals including gold, silver, and platinum declined sharply, with gold falling nearly 3% to $4,948.50 per ounce. Bitcoin continued its downward trend, trading around $65,000, down significantly from its October 2025 highs. Meanwhile, international markets, especially Japan, showed strength following political developments that boosted investor confidence.
Key Index Performance (Feb 12, 2026 Close)
| Index | Change | % Change | Last Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials | -669.28 | -1.34% | 49,452 |
| S&P 500 | -108.72 | -1.57% | 6,832 |
| Nasdaq | -469.32 | -2.03% | 22,597 |
| Russell 2000 | -53.64 | -2.01% | 2,615 |
Sector and Corporate News
- Technology: The sector faced significant pressure due to fears of AI disruption affecting software, travel, gaming, and logistics stocks. Mega-cap tech companies are struggling amid high capital expenditure plans.
- Autos: Ferrari was upgraded to Neutral from Sell, and BorgWarner received a Buy upgrade due to its strategic pivot into AI data center markets.
- Consumer: McDonald's beat earnings expectations but shares slipped; other consumer companies showed mixed results.
- Energy: OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecast, supported by strong air travel and road mobility. Oil prices declined slightly, with WTI at $62.84 per barrel.
- Financials: Paycom beat earnings but guided lower for FY revenues; RenaissanceRe increased dividends and renewed share repurchase programs.
- Healthcare: ICON shares dropped over 20% due to accounting investigations; other biotech firms reported strong earnings.
Economic Data and Outlook
Recent U.S. economic data showed weaker housing figures, with existing home sales down 8.4% in January, and weekly jobless claims falling to 227,000. Retail sales for December were flat, raising concerns about consumer spending. The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is highly anticipated, with expectations of 0.3% growth in both headline and core CPI. Softer inflation data could support Federal Reserve rate cut expectations later in 2026.
The labor market remains resilient, with strong job growth tempering immediate rate cut expectations but not ruling out cuts by mid-year. Market sentiment is cautiously bullish, supported by anticipated Fed easing, strong corporate earnings, and improving US-China trade relations. However, risks include geopolitical tensions and disappointing economic indicators.
Technical Market Outlook
- Dow Jones: Trading above its 50-day EMA with resistance near 50,611 and support at 48,987.
- S&P 500: Approaching resistance at 7,036 with support at 6,914 (50-day EMA).
- Nasdaq 100: Below its 50-day EMA, resistance at 25,466 and support at 24,106 (200-day EMA), indicating near-term bearishness.
Volatility remains moderate with the VIX around 17.79. The market is in a phase of risk repricing and correction, but underlying technological growth prospects remain strong.
Fixed Income and Commodities
U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 2-year yield at 3.45% and the 10-year yield at 4.14%. Technical analysis of key bond instruments shows bullish signals for the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, with most moving averages indicating long positions.
Gold prices fell sharply but remain supported above $4,900 per ounce amid Fed rate cut expectations. Oil prices softened due to easing Middle East tensions. Agricultural commodities showed mixed performance, with cocoa prices plunging due to increased supply from West Africa.
Cryptocurrency Market
Bitcoin traded near $65,000, down from previous highs, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a strong U.S. dollar and expectations of a prolonged Fed pause. Ethereum also declined to around $1,900. XRP faced pressure due to legislative delays and strong U.S. jobs data, falling below $1.4, though institutional inflows into XRP ETFs remain strong.
Key Instruments Technical Summary (as of February 13, 2026)
| Instrument | Last Price | Signal | Technical Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| USB 30-Year Treasury Bond | 117.416 | Buy | Long on EMA and SMA (10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 200) |
| USB 10-Year Treasury Bond | 112.871 | Buy | Long on EMA and SMA (10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 200) |
| USB 5-Year Treasury Bond | 109.455 | Buy | Long on EMA and SMA (10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 200) |
| USB 2-Year Treasury Bond | 104.278 | Sell | Mixed technicals, mostly long on EMAs and SMAs but sell signal on 9/13 count |
| 5E2 (Euro FX Futures) | 2.10 | Buy | Mixed technicals, mostly long on short EMAs, short on longer-term SMAs |
| 9CI (Crude Oil Futures) | 3.12 | Sell | Mostly long on EMAs and SMAs, but mixed momentum indicators |
Summary
The US market as of February 13, 2026, is navigating a cautious environment marked by technology sector weakness, inflation data anticipation, and mixed economic signals. While short-term volatility and sector-specific challenges persist, the medium-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts, strong corporate earnings, and improving geopolitical relations. Fixed income markets show bullish technical trends, and commodities reflect mixed pressures. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming CPI data and labor market reports closely for further market direction.
AAPL (Apple)
Apple shares faced losses overshadowing some sector gains, contributing to weakness in the tech sector. No specific earnings update today, but the stock was pressured amid broader tech sell-offs.
AMZN (Amazon)
Amazon shares rose 17% after disclosing a stake in an aerospace start-up, signaling diversification and growth potential.
BWA (BorgWarner)
BorgWarner exceeded Q4 earnings estimates, driven by strong demand for electrified powertrains, supporting optimism in the auto sector.
CSCO (Cisco Systems)
Cisco reported earnings that beat expectations but shares fell about 7% due to margin pressures and mixed market sentiment.
FSLY (Fastly)
Fastly shares surged over 30% following a strong earnings report, reflecting positive investor reaction to growth and guidance.
MU (Micron)
Memory stocks including Micron showed early strength after positive comments from Samsung on memory chip demand.
NVCR (Novocure)
Shares rose 30% after FDA approval for a new cancer treatment device, marking a significant regulatory milestone.
PSN (Parsons)
PSN shares declined after missing Q4 EPS estimates and lowering revenue guidance for 2026, impacted by government shutdown effects.
SHOP (Shopify)
Shopify shares gained 12% after guiding revenue growth above analyst estimates and announcing a share repurchase program.
APP (AppLovin)
AppLovin was the worst performer in the Nasdaq, down 18.5% following weak Q4 results and competitive concerns.
COIN (Coinbase)
Coinbase reported disappointing Q4 earnings with adjusted EPS of $0.66, missing consensus estimates, contributing to sector weakness.
ICON
ICON shares plummeted over 20% due to accounting investigations, raising concerns about financial transparency.
RIVN (Rivian)
Rivian shares rallied after a positive delivery outlook, reflecting optimism in the electric vehicle market.
Energy Sector
- U.S. eased sanctions on Venezuela, allowing energy companies to resume operations.
- Natural gas inventories showed a smaller than expected drawdown; NATGAS trading down 2.16% at 3.15.
- Oil prices retreated below $65 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions easing.
Gold & Commodities
Gold prices fell sharply by about 3-4%, closing near $4,919 per ounce, pressured by stronger jobs data and diminished Fed rate cut expectations.
Silver and copper also declined significantly, while precious metals saw some rebound after initial sell-offs.
Indices & Market Overview
- Dow Jones: -1.34%
- S&P 500: -1.57%
- Nasdaq: -2.03%, with tech stocks notably weak.
- Volatility index (VIX) spiked 18%, reflecting increased market uncertainty.
- Defensive sectors like Utilities (+2.7%) and Health Care (+1.0%) showed strength, while Information Technology and Financials lagged.
Currency & Crypto
US Dollar rebounded after strong jobs data; EUR/USD softened ahead of CPI data. Bitcoin stabilized above $67,000 after recent volatility; Ethereum rebounded after dipping below $2,000.
Economic Data & Outlook
January jobs report showed 130,000 payroll increase, unemployment down to 4.3%, and hourly earnings up 3.7% YoY, stronger than expected.
January CPI inflation rose 0.2% MoM, 2.4% YoY, below expectations, providing some relief but not enough to change Fed rate cut outlook significantly.
Investors await upcoming CPI report for further market direction.