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1. Macroeconomic Environment and Economic Indicators
The US economy showed a significant slowdown in Q4 2025, with GDP growth dropping from 4.4% to 1.4%, raising stagflation concerns. This was largely attributed to the longest US government shutdown impacting federal spending and exports. Despite this, some analysts suggest the fundamentals remain stronger than the headline figures imply. Consumer sentiment is at multi-decade lows, and inflation remains persistent with the core PCE inflation index at around 3.0%, above the Fed's 2% target.
Key upcoming economic data include the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, Q4 GDP advance reading (expected 3.0%), weekly jobless claims, and manufacturing PMIs. Australia reported steady unemployment at 4.1% with mixed employment growth, while Japan's inflation rate fell to 1.5%, meeting central bank targets.
Global economic outlooks remain mixed, with the IMF projecting 4.5% growth for China in 2026, emphasizing a shift to consumption-led growth. Political instability in Peru and central bank rate decisions in Romania also add to the global economic complexity.
2. Monetary Policy and Central Bank Developments
The Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes revealed a hawkish stance, with policymakers cautious about rate cuts until disinflation is firmly established. The current interest rate range is 3.50-3.75%, considered neutral, but further hikes remain possible if inflation persists. Market pricing for a June rate cut has decreased to about 50% probability.
Fed minutes and hawkish signals have strengthened the US dollar, pushing Treasury yields higher (2-year yield at 3.47%, 10-year at 4.087%). The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to modestly increase rates in the near term, with more tightening anticipated in May. The ECB faces leadership changes with Christine Lagarde's early departure announcement.
3. Equity Markets and Corporate Earnings
US equity markets showed mixed but generally positive performance recently. The Nasdaq Composite led gains with a 1.51% weekly increase, supported by strong technology sector performance, especially NVIDIA, Amazon, and Microsoft. NVIDIA's multi-year AI chip supply deal with Meta boosted semiconductor stocks. The S&P 500 and MidCap 400 also gained, while the Dow Jones showed modest increases.
Corporate earnings have been robust: 66% of S&P 500 companies beat revenue expectations and 75% exceeded earnings forecasts. Notable movers include Deere (+11.7%), Walmart (down 1.4% due to cautious guidance), Blue Owl Capital (liquidity concerns), and Newmont Corporation (beat EPS and revenue). The software sector stabilized after early February losses, though some companies like Palo Alto Networks revised profit outlooks downward.
In Australia, major banks and mining companies have exceeded earnings expectations, with mining stocks up 20% since October 2025. However, the Australian market is considered expensive with a forward P/E ratio above 18x, about 27% above its long-term average.
4. Commodities and Precious Metals
Commodity markets are experiencing significant movements driven by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns:
- Oil: Crude oil prices surged approximately 7%, with WTI testing resistance near $66.50 and Brent near $72. Geopolitical tensions, especially between the US and Iran, are key drivers. Potential military action against Iran has pushed oil prices to six-month highs.
- Gold: Gold prices have surged by 2.5%, nearing the $5,000 per ounce mark, supported by geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand. Despite a strong US dollar and hawkish Fed minutes, gold remains resilient, with a recent record high of $5,594.82 in January. Analysts expect gold to trade between $4,990 and $5,345 in the near term.
- Silver: Silver prices have shown weakness but maintain strong support near $70. Record inflows into gold and silver ETFs were noted in January, with $19 billion into gold ETFs alone, pushing global holdings to all-time highs.
- Copper: Copper prices reached $6.30 but are correcting lower. The long-term outlook remains bullish due to electrification and infrastructure demand, with key support at $5.20 and resistance at $5.80.
5. Fixed Income and Bond Markets
The municipal bond market performed robustly with record issuance of $580.4 billion, supported by favorable tax and spending legislation. The S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index rose 3.77% for the year. Asia-Pacific fixed income markets showed resilience amid geopolitical tensions, with central banks implementing rate cuts and adjusting credit quality strategies.
US Treasury yields rose following hawkish Fed minutes, with increased volatility expected around upcoming inflation data releases.
6. Currency and Forex Markets
The US dollar strengthened significantly after hawkish Fed minutes, pushing the USD/JPY pair to a six-day high and weakening major counterparts like EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD. The Euro is at a critical juncture, attempting to stabilize above key support but facing downside pressure. The Australian Dollar strengthened following positive jobs data, while the Canadian dollar faced pressure amid economic uncertainty.
Key technical levels for EUR/USD include resistance at 1.1917-1.2020 and support near 1.1746-1.175. USD/CAD is at a pivotal resistance level, with upcoming US economic data likely to influence direction.
7. Cryptocurrency Markets
Bitcoin (BTC) is under pressure, facing a potential five-week losing streak with ETF outflows totaling $315.9 million recently and $2.6 billion year-to-date. The decline is linked to fading expectations of Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and continued BTC-spot ETF withdrawals. Upcoming US labor and consumer confidence data may influence BTC's trajectory.
XRP shows mixed on-chain activity with accumulation by long-term holders but decreased trading volumes. US XRP-spot ETFs have seen strong inflows ($1.84 million weekly), buoyed by optimism around the Market Structure Bill and potential Senate passage of the CLARITY Act, which could enhance XRP adoption.
Overall, Bitcoin faces downward pressure amid risk-off sentiment, while gold leads as a safe-haven asset. The future of both depends on geopolitical developments and market stability.
8. Geopolitical and Regulatory Developments
The US Supreme Court ruled against the Trump administration's broad global tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 6-3 decision that impacts trade policy and inflation. Despite this, the administration plans alternative legal routes to maintain tariffs, keeping trade tensions alive.
Geopolitical tensions with Iran remain high, with potential limited military strikes under consideration, contributing to oil price surges and market volatility. US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia concluded with limited progress, maintaining regional uncertainty.
Regulatory optimism surrounds the US Market Structure Bill and stablecoin yield discussions, potentially benefiting digital assets like XRP.
9. Investment Strategies and Risk Considerations
CFD trading remains a high-risk strategy due to leverage, with a majority of retail clients experiencing losses. Investors are urged to understand product mechanics and assess financial situations carefully before engaging.
Given the mixed economic signals, geopolitical risks, and monetary policy uncertainty, investors are advised to maintain vigilance, diversify portfolios, and monitor key support/resistance levels across asset classes.
10. Notable Portfolio Moves
Berkshire Hathaway, under Warren Buffett's leadership, dramatically reduced its Amazon stake by over 75% in Q4 2025, signaling a strategic shift away from high-growth tech stocks. This move has sparked debate about Berkshire's future investment direction as Buffett steps down.
Market Overview
Global financial markets are navigating a complex environment shaped by geopolitical tensions, evolving trade policies, and cautious macroeconomic signals. The recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling invalidating previous tariffs has introduced uncertainty, compounded by former President Trump's announcement of a new 15% global tariff. This has led to risk-off sentiment, with equity futures opening lower and increased volatility across asset classes.
Equities showed mixed performance with the S&P 500 posting a modest weekly gain of 1.1%, led by Communication Services and Growth sectors, while defensive sectors lagged. Internationally, Korea's markets outperformed, whereas Middle Eastern equities suffered due to escalating regional tensions.
Macroeconomic Factors
- Inflation and Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve remains cautious, with minutes indicating a slower-than-expected disinflation process and the possibility of prolonged high rates. Inflation remains above target, with the US Core PCE Price Index rising to 3.0% year-on-year.
- Economic Growth: US GDP growth slowed to 1.4% in Q4 2025, below expectations, while labor markets remain resilient. Eurozone PMIs show improvement despite industrial production contraction. The UK faces rising unemployment but benefits from strong retail sales and a budget surplus.
- Trade and Tariffs: The new 15% tariff announcement has weakened the US dollar and increased uncertainty in global trade, impacting currency markets and commodity prices.
Equities and Sector Highlights
- US markets saw declines in some sectors, with Walmart down 1.4% on cautious outlooks, while Deere surged 11.7% following positive earnings.
- Technology remains a focal point, with Nvidia's upcoming earnings seen as a key indicator of AI spending sustainability. Software companies face tests on pricing power amid AI integration.
- Crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum showed slight gains, but institutional flows suggest cautious sentiment. XRP experienced volatility due to risk-off sentiment and regulatory uncertainties.
Fixed Income and Currencies
US Treasuries found support amid mixed economic data, with yields stabilizing after recent sell-offs. The US dollar weakened against safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, while the Australian dollar showed relative strength. The EUR/USD pair rose above 1.18 but faces resistance near 1.1950.
Commodities
- Oil: Crude oil prices have rallied, with WTI near $66 and Brent above $70 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and supply concerns. Upcoming nuclear talks and potential sanctions relief remain key factors influencing the market.
- Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices have risen amid tariff uncertainties and risk aversion, with gold surpassing $5,100 and silver up approximately 5%. Technical indicators suggest potential for further gains if key resistance levels are breached.
- Other Commodities: Copper prices remain firm, reflecting demand for hard assets despite equity market weakness.
Geopolitical and Legislative Developments
Heightened geopolitical risks, particularly involving Iran and the US, are influencing market dynamics. Iran's agreement with Russia on air defense systems and the possibility of US military action add to uncertainty. Meanwhile, optimism surrounds the US Market Structure Bill and the CLARITY Act, which could provide clearer regulatory frameworks for digital assets like XRP, supporting medium-term bullish outlooks.
Outlook and Risks
Markets face a delicate balance between geopolitical risks, macroeconomic data, and policy decisions. Key risks include:
- Potential delays or setbacks in trade negotiations and tariff implementations.
- Persistent inflation leading to prolonged monetary tightening.
- Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East impacting energy markets and global risk sentiment.
- Volatility in digital assets driven by regulatory uncertainty and institutional flows.
Investors are advised to monitor upcoming economic releases, corporate earnings (notably Nvidia and software companies), and geopolitical developments closely to navigate the evolving landscape.
Market Overview
The US market opened the week on a risk-off note, heavily influenced by political and geopolitical developments. Equity futures declined with the S&P 500 futures down by 33 points and Nasdaq futures down by 166 points, reflecting bearish sentiment. The Supreme Court ruled against President Trump's previous tariff system under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), prompting Trump to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15% for 150 days, injecting uncertainty into trade policies and market dynamics.
The EU has responded by freezing ratification of the trade deal with the US pending further clarity on trade policy. Meanwhile, upcoming nuclear talks between the US and Iran scheduled for Thursday add to geopolitical tension.
Equities and Key Stock Movements
- Nasdaq 100: Maintains key support around 24,400 with a neutral to slightly positive outlook. A breakout above 25,000 resistance could trigger further buying momentum.
- Notable Movers:
- Walmart dropped 1.4% due to a cautious outlook.
- Deere surged 11.7% on strong earnings.
- Blue Owl fell nearly 6% amid liquidity concerns.
- Global-e Online (+24%), Rush Street (+20%), Mister Car Wash (+17%), Wingstop (+13%), and BioAge Labs (+13%) were top gainers.
- Northern Dynasty Minerals (-34%), SimilarWeb (-21%), Axcelis Technologies (-13%), Palo Alto Networks (-7%), and MKS Instruments (-6.7%) were top decliners.
- Corporate News: Gilead is acquiring Arcellx for $7.8 billion. NVIDIA is set to launch new laptop chips, with its shares up 1.7% amid strong AI-related demand.
Fixed Income and Bond Market
US Treasuries saw buying interest with yields stabilizing after recent sell-offs. Key bond instruments as of February 23, 2026, show the following:
- 5-Year US Bond (USB05Y_USD): Last close at 109.542, technical indicators mostly bullish with EMA and SMA across multiple periods signaling long positions, though some short signals on momentum and RSI.
- 10-Year US Bond (USB10Y_USD): Last close at 113.084, with mixed signals but generally long on moving averages.
- 30-Year US Bond (USB30Y_USD): Last close at 117.737, technicals show long on most EMAs and SMAs but sell signal on 9/13 count.
These bonds reflect cautious optimism amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Commodities
Commodity markets show divergence amid geopolitical tensions and economic concerns:
- Oil: Prices rebounded from support levels around $62–63 and are testing resistance between $66 and $67. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, including military buildup and potential strikes, have raised the risk premium on oil prices. A breakout above resistance could push prices toward $70.50. However, risk aversion and economic growth concerns cap gains.
- Gold and Silver: Precious metals are gaining amid uncertainty. Gold is approaching a critical resistance near $5,000 per ounce, while silver has surged over 4%, trading between its 50- and 200-session EMAs. These metals benefit from safe-haven demand despite a strong US dollar.
- Copper: Showing strength, supported by industrial demand and supply constraints.
Foreign Exchange (FX) Market
The US dollar showed mixed behavior. While traditionally a safe haven, the dollar weakened slightly (0.3% to 0.4%) following tariff increases domestically, contrasting with the strengthening of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The EUR/USD pair rose modestly by 0.31%. Risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars weakened amid risk-off sentiment.
Cryptocurrency and Digital Assets
Bitcoin dropped over 5% to around $64,600, reflecting risk-off sentiment linked to trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Ethereum and other digital assets showed slight gains but overall cautious sentiment prevails. Institutional flows into US XRP-spot ETFs continue positively, with weekly inflows of $1.84 million and a total of $1.23 billion since November, contrasting with outflows in BTC ETFs. XRP trades below $1.5, with medium-term price targets around $2.5, supported by potential legislative progress on the Market Structure Bill.
Geopolitical and Economic Context
Key geopolitical developments include:
- US Supreme Court invalidated Trump's previous tariff system, leading to a new uniform global tariff of 15%.
- US-Iran tensions escalate with military buildup and potential limited airstrikes contemplated on Iranian targets.
- Iran signed a €500 million deal with Russia for air defense systems, deliveries from 2027 to 2029.
- Upcoming US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva may be the last diplomatic chance before military action.
Economic data to watch includes December Factory Orders and upcoming GDP and PCE inflation data, which will influence Fed policy expectations and market sentiment.
Summary and Outlook
The US market is navigating a complex environment of heightened geopolitical risks, evolving trade policies, and cautious economic indicators. Equity markets show mixed performance with tech stocks holding key support levels but facing resistance. Fixed income markets reflect cautious optimism, while commodities are influenced by geopolitical risk premiums and supply-demand dynamics. The FX market is volatile with safe havens strengthening amid risk-off sentiment. Cryptocurrencies remain sensitive to macro and regulatory developments.
Investors should monitor tariff developments, geopolitical negotiations, and key economic releases closely as these will shape market direction in the near term.
WMT (Walmart)
- Reported better-than-expected Q4 results but gave a cautious outlook, leading to a share price decline.
- Scheduled to report earnings before market open today.
DE (Deere)
- Strong Q1 results led to a raised full-year net income forecast.
- Shares rose by approximately 6% following the earnings report.
OXY (Occidental Petroleum)
- Reported better-than-expected earnings and raised dividends.
- Shares increased by about 9%, driven by strength in its midstream unit.
EBAY (eBay)
- Announced acquisition of Depop from Etsy for $1.2 billion.
- Shares gained around 7% on the news.
Amazon
- Experienced outages in its cloud unit due to AI tool errors.
Blue Owl Capital (OWL)
- Denied reports of halting investor liquidity.
- Announced selling $1.4 billion in assets to return capital to investors amid pressures in direct lending and software stocks.
Newmont Corporation
- Beat EPS and revenue expectations.
NVIDIA
- Nearing a $30 billion investment in OpenAI, revising down from a previous $100 billion pledge.
- Stock advanced following a multi-year AI chip supply agreement with Meta.
CAR (Avis Budget Rental)
- Reported a significant loss, shares declined.
CVNA (Carvana)
- Disappointing gross profit per unit led to a share price decline of about 3%.
POOL (Pool Corporation)
- Q4 miss and lower annual profit forecast weighed on shares, down about 12%.
Sector & Market Overview
- Energy stocks (XLE) have shown strong performance, up 24% in 2026.
- Technology stocks (XLK) have retraced some gains, down about 3% for the year.
- Cryptocurrency markets, especially Bitcoin, have declined sharply, down approximately 50% from last October's highs.
- Oil prices surged due to geopolitical tensions with Iran, reaching highest levels in six months before a slight pullback.
- Gold prices rose to around $5,000 per ounce, silver at $80 per ounce.
- US dollar index reached a four-week high above 98.
Economic Data Highlights
- Weekly jobless claims fell to 206,000, better than expected.
- Philadelphia Fed business conditions index rose to 16.3, well above consensus.
- U.S. trade deficit increased by 32.6% to $70.3 billion in December.
- Pending home sales fell 0.4% from January 2025, below expectations.
- Advance Q4 GDP reading expected at 3.0% growth.
- December Personal Income and Spending data, including PCE Price Index, expected to show moderate increases.
Geopolitical & Market Sentiment
- High geopolitical tensions due to potential limited US air strike on Iran to pressure nuclear deal compliance.
- Oil prices influenced by these tensions, contributing to market volatility.
- Markets cautious ahead of key inflation data and Supreme Court ruling on tariffs.
- Asian markets mixed; South Korea's Kospi hit record highs, Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined.
- European markets slightly higher with mixed corporate earnings.
BAE Systems (BAESY)
- Reported record earnings with 8% revenue growth to £28.3 billion and EPS up 6% to 68.8 pence.
- Order backlog increased to £63.1 billion.
- Management projects 7-9% sales growth and 9-11% EPS growth for next year.
- Dividend expected to increase by 10% to 36.3 pence per share.