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1. Equity Markets Overview
U.S. stock markets experienced a volatile but ultimately positive session on February 6, 2026. The S&P 500 rebounded strongly, gaining 2% after a recent dip below 6,800. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 2.5%, surpassing the 50,000 mark for the first time, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index jumped 3.5%. This rebound followed a week of turbulence, especially in technology stocks, amid concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on software services and the large capital expenditures planned by major tech firms.
However, the technology sector remains under pressure, with software stocks declining for seven consecutive sessions. The S&P 500 software index is about 21% below its 200-day moving average, reflecting nearly $1 trillion in lost market value. Key tech companies such as ServiceNow, Salesforce, Microsoft, and Amazon have seen sharp declines. Amazon's shares notably fell 10% after-hours following its announcement of a $200 billion investment plan in 2026 focused on data centers, chips, and AI infrastructure, raising concerns about the return on such massive spending.
Investor sentiment is shifting away from high-growth tech stocks towards more defensive sectors like consumer staples, energy, and industrials. This rotation is accompanied by rising short interest and reduced hedge fund exposure, contributing to increased market volatility, with the VIX index rising 22% to 22.80 before easing to 17.76.
In Europe, markets showed a risk-on mood with strong performances from companies like ASML and Vinci, while Stellantis faced a sharp decline due to charges related to its strategy reset. In Asia, Japan's markets surged following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's election victory, with the Nikkei hitting new records.
2. Cryptocurrency and Digital Assets
The cryptocurrency market continues to face challenges. Bitcoin fell below $68,000 for the first time since November 2024, marking a 7% decline attributed to long liquidations, contagion from tech stock sell-offs, and ETF outflows. Bitcoin recently touched a support level near $66,500, with technical indicators suggesting oversold conditions but risks of further declines remain. Ethereum is trading near $2,100, with ETF flows showing cautious investor sentiment and significant outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
XRP is also under pressure, sliding due to hawkish Federal Reserve signals and delays in U.S. crypto regulatory legislation, particularly the stalled Market Structure Bill. XRP's price dropped from $2.4151 in early January to lows near $1.50 by the end of the month. Regulatory uncertainty and fading expectations of Fed rate cuts have cooled demand for XRP-spot ETFs, resulting in net outflows despite earlier inflows since inception.
3. Central Bank and Monetary Policy Updates
The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 3.75%, with Chair Powell signaling a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in the near term. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has introduced uncertainty, with expectations that a smaller Fed balance sheet could negatively impact speculative assets.
The Bank of England (BOE) held rates steady after a narrow 5-4 vote, signaling a potential future cut if inflation falls sharply. The BOE revised down its economic growth forecast and noted rising unemployment. The European Central Bank (ECB) also maintained key interest rates, reaffirming its 2% inflation target despite global economic challenges.
Banco de México (Banxico) is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points from 7.00% to 6.75% due to easing inflation (3.69% in December 2025). This anticipated cut may weaken the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar, as the interest rate differential narrows.
Chinese regulators have advised financial institutions to limit holdings of U.S. Treasuries to reduce concentration risks and market volatility. This, combined with geopolitical tensions and fiscal concerns in Japan following Takaichi's election, has influenced fixed income markets, with U.S. Treasury yields rising slightly and Japanese Government Bond yields increasing.
4. Economic Data and Labor Market
Recent U.S. economic data shows signs of labor market softening. Job openings fell to 6.542 million in December, below expectations. Layoffs surged by 205% compared to the previous month, with Challenger reporting over 108,000 job cuts. Jobless claims rose to 231,000, exceeding forecasts. The ADP private payroll report also surprised to the downside, fueling speculation of a dovish Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report ahead.
Despite expectations of softer employment data, the U.S. yield curve is steepening, indicating market anticipation of lower Fed rates in the future. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has weakened, erasing February gains and approaching critical support levels between 96.50 and 97.00, though some analysts caution that the dollar's weakness may be overstated given the U.S. economy's relative strength.
5. Commodities and Currency Markets
Precious metals have rebounded strongly after recent volatility. Gold prices rose above $5,000 per ounce, supported by increased Chinese acquisitions and cautious sentiment towards the U.S. dollar. Silver also recovered, though it remains down 13% year-to-date. Oil prices have stabilized, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) drifting lower due to easing Middle East tensions and ongoing geopolitical concerns.
The Japanese yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar following the snap election victory of Prime Minister Takaichi, which is expected to lead to continued fiscal expansion. The U.S. dollar remains stable against a trade-weighted basket of currencies but faces retracement resistance amid government shutdown fears and Fed uncertainty.
The USD/MXN pair is under pressure, with the peso weakening ahead of Banxico's anticipated rate cut. The narrowing interest rate differential between Mexico and the U.S. is expected to reduce the peso's appeal.
6. Corporate Earnings and Sector Highlights
Notable earnings reports and sector movements include:
- Technology: Alphabet reported strong quarterly results but faced negative market reaction due to a significant increase in capital expenditure guidance. Amazon's heavy AI-related spending plans have also weighed on its stock.
- Semiconductors: Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom led a rebound with gains over 7% each.
- Chemicals: Syngenta plans a Hong Kong listing potentially raising $10 billion. Jefferies upgraded Celanese (CE) to Buy, while FMC shares dropped after disappointing earnings and a potential sale announcement.
- Media: FOXA was downgraded post-earnings, FUBO upgraded due to a new business model, SIRI reported subscriber growth, and SNAP exceeded Q4 expectations.
- Insurance: AFL missed EPS estimates due to corporate losses, while ALL and MET posted better-than-expected earnings driven by reserve developments and investment income.
- Automotive: Volvo Car AB shares plunged over 20% after disastrous Q4 2025 results, with profits down over 60% year-on-year and bleak outlook due to subsidy program ends and trade pressures.
7. Market Technicals and Sentiment
The Nasdaq has shown signs of recovery, gaining nearly 3% and reclaiming the 25,000 level, with technical indicators suggesting a potential shift towards bullish momentum. However, overall investor sentiment remains cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.
Market volatility remains elevated, with leveraged positions being unwound across equities, commodities, and digital assets. The VIX index, a key measure of market fear, has fluctuated but remains above historical lows, reflecting ongoing investor caution.
8. Upcoming Events and Outlook
Key upcoming events include:
- NY Fed 1-year Inflation Expectations release
- Central bank speeches from the ECB and Federal Reserve
- Major earnings reports from Coca-Cola, AstraZeneca, Gilead Sciences, Cisco, McDonald's, T-Mobile US, Hermes, L’Oreal, Applied Materials, Safran, Enbridge, NatWest, and others throughout the week
Investors are advised to monitor labor and inflation data closely, as these will influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and market dynamics. The current environment suggests a complex interplay of factors requiring strategic adjustments across asset classes.
Equity Markets
The equity markets have experienced significant volatility recently, driven by sector rotations and macroeconomic uncertainties. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surpassed the 50,000 mark, reflecting strong gains, particularly in technology and semiconductor sectors. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 also rebounded, with the information technology sector leading gains, supported by a semi-led rally including Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom.
However, the US software sector has faced a sharp decline, with the S&P 500 software index down approximately 21% below its 200-day moving average, losing nearly $1 trillion in market value. This is largely due to concerns about AI disrupting existing business models and increased capital expenditures by major tech firms like Amazon, which saw a notable stock drop after announcing a $200 billion infrastructure spending plan.
Investor sentiment is shifting from growth stocks towards more defensive sectors such as consumer staples, energy, and industrials, amid rising short interest and reduced hedge fund exposure. Market volatility remains elevated, with the VIX index fluctuating but contained around 17.76, reflecting cautious optimism ahead of key US labor and inflation data.
Macroeconomic Factors and Central Bank Policies
Macroeconomic data is pivotal in shaping market direction. The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with lower-than-expected payroll gains and job openings at a five-year low. Upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), retail sales, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports are highly anticipated, as they will influence Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, currently priced in for mid-2026.
Globally, central banks are navigating complex environments. The Bank of England is close to cutting rates due to slowing GDP growth and rising unemployment, while the European Central Bank maintains rates amid concerns over the Euro's strength impacting export competitiveness. The US Treasury is withdrawing cash from the system, tightening liquidity and potentially increasing market volatility.
China's regulators have advised limiting exposure to US Treasuries to reduce concentration risks, adding to global fixed income market dynamics. Japanese Government Bond yields have risen following political developments, reflecting fiscal concerns.
Commodities and Precious Metals
The commodities market is experiencing a defensive phase after a strong rally in January. Precious metals like gold and silver have corrected significantly but are showing signs of stabilization rather than a new rally. Gold remains over 12% higher year-to-date, supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions including conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Taiwan. However, gold prices are considered overvalued relative to macro fundamentals, with real interest rates and inflation expectations stable.
Silver has been particularly volatile, losing nearly 50% from all-time highs but rebounding recently due to dollar weakness, renewed risk appetite, and gold's strength. The sustainability of this rally is uncertain and depends on upcoming US economic data and global risk sentiment.
Industrial metals like copper have declined due to softening fundamentals and liquidity stress, while energy markets remain rangebound with Brent crude trading between $60-$70 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical risks. Agricultural commodities show mixed trends, with soybeans optimistic on Chinese demand and coffee prices falling due to increased production.
Currency and Digital Assets
The US dollar has weakened amid improved global risk appetite, while the Japanese yen strengthened following Japan's election results and fiscal reassurances. The Euro's appreciation poses challenges for the ECB, potentially suppressing inflation and slowing growth.
Cryptocurrency markets are stabilizing after recent sell-offs, with Bitcoin trading around $70,000 and Ethereum near $2,100. However, ETF flows indicate cautious investor sentiment, with significant outflows reflecting hesitance. Bitcoin's price remains down approximately 27% year-to-date, marking a 16-month low.
Key Market Themes and Outlook
- Liquidity Stress and Deleveraging: Markets are adjusting to tighter liquidity conditions, with deleveraging impacting equities, commodities, and digital assets.
- Sector Rotation: Investors are rotating from high-growth tech stocks to defensive sectors amid valuation concerns and AI-related uncertainties.
- Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing conflicts and geopolitical tensions continue to drive safe-haven demand, particularly in precious metals.
- Upcoming Economic Data: US labor and inflation reports will be critical in determining the trajectory of interest rates and market sentiment.
- Corporate Earnings: Earnings season is influencing market dynamics, with mixed results across sectors and cautious guidance from major companies.
Overall, the market environment is characterized by elevated volatility, cautious optimism, and a focus on macroeconomic data and central bank policies. Investors are advised to monitor liquidity conditions, sector performance, and geopolitical developments closely as these factors will shape market direction in the near term.
Market Summary
On February 10, 2026, the US stock market showed mixed but cautiously optimistic signals. After a volatile start to the week, major indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebounded, driven primarily by a recovery in technology stocks, especially semiconductors and software sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed slightly up, maintaining levels above 50,000, a historic milestone.
US stock futures showed slight declines in early Asian trading as investors awaited key economic data releases and corporate earnings reports. The market sentiment is currently supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the first half of 2026, although geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties remain risks.
Key Market Indices and Technical Levels
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed above 50,000; resistance near 50,339; support at 48,879; potential upside to 51,000 if support holds.
- Nasdaq 100: Rebounded to around 25,268; resistance at 25,483; support at 25,000; technical signals mixed with potential double top formation.
- S&P 500: Approaching all-time highs near 7,000; resistance at 7,036; support at 6,910.
Technical analysis indicates cautious optimism with key support levels holding, but investors remain watchful for any breakdowns that could trigger further selling pressure.
Sector Performance and Notable Stocks
The technology sector led the recent rebound, with semiconductor stocks like NVIDIA and software companies showing strong gains. However, some tech giants such as Amazon experienced sharp declines following announcements of increased capital expenditures, raising concerns about return on investment.
Consumer discretionary and communication services sectors remain weak, while defensive sectors such as consumer staples, energy, and industrials have attracted investor interest.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): +7.87% to $185.41
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI): +11.44% to $34.38
- Microsoft (MSFT): +1.90% to $401
- Amazon (AMZN): Fell sharply post-earnings due to increased capital spending plans
Economic Data and Outlook
Investors are closely watching upcoming US economic data, including retail sales for December, the January jobs report, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures. Retail sales are expected to show a modest increase of 0.4% month-over-month, which could ease concerns about consumer demand.
The labor market shows signs of softening, with recent jobless claims spiking and job openings declining to their lowest since 2020. The January non-farm payrolls report is anticipated to show an addition of 70,000 jobs with the unemployment rate steady at 4.4%. These data points will be critical in shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Fixed Income and Bond Market
US Treasury yields have decreased slightly, with the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds showing mixed technical signals but generally maintaining a bullish outlook. Key technical indicators for the 5-year and 10-year bonds suggest long positions, while the 30-year bond shows some short-term caution.
- 5-Year Treasury: Last close at 109.242; technical indicators mostly long.
- 10-Year Treasury: Last close at 112.467; buy signals present.
- 30-Year Treasury: Last close at 116.368; mixed signals with some short-term resistance.
Commodities and Currencies
Gold prices have rebounded strongly, surpassing $5,000 per ounce, supported by a weaker US dollar and cautious investor sentiment amid geopolitical tensions. Silver also gained, benefiting from safe-haven demand.
Oil prices stabilized after recent declines, influenced by ongoing US-Iran diplomatic developments. Natural gas futures dropped sharply due to the end of winter demand and warmer weather forecasts.
The US Dollar Index has weakened by approximately 0.8%, pressured by expectations of Federal Reserve easing and international political developments, including fiscal expansion plans in Japan and political uncertainty in the UK.
Cryptocurrency Market
Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below $70,000, pressured by significant outflows from US BTC-spot ETFs and concerns over US economic data. Despite short-term weakness, medium-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic due to expectations of Fed rate cuts and potential crypto-friendly legislation.
XRP also experienced downward pressure amid delays in US crypto regulatory bills and hawkish Federal Reserve signals.
Corporate and Sector News
The US software sector has faced a notable selloff, with the S&P 500 software index down approximately 21% below its 200-day moving average, driven by concerns over AI disruption and capital spending.
In healthcare, shares of Hims & Hers Health and Novo Nordisk have been volatile due to regulatory investigations into GLP-1 drugs.
Conclusion
The US market as of February 10, 2026, is characterized by cautious optimism amid mixed economic signals and geopolitical uncertainties. Investors are closely monitoring key economic data releases and corporate earnings, with a focus on Federal Reserve policy direction. Technology stocks show signs of recovery, but risks remain from regulatory challenges and global political developments.
Fixed income markets and commodities reflect a complex interplay of demand, supply, and macroeconomic factors, while cryptocurrencies remain volatile but with a cautiously bullish medium-term outlook.
AMZN (Amazon)
- Q4 EPS was $1.95, slightly below estimates, with revenues of $213.4 billion.
- Stock dropped 8-9% due to mixed earnings and a high capital expenditure guidance of ~$200 billion for 2026, well above consensus.
- Concerns over increased AI infrastructure spending impacted sentiment.
GOOGL (Alphabet)
- Reported strong quarterly results.
- Market reacted negatively to a significant increase in capital expenditure guidance, well above analyst expectations.
BTC (Bitcoin)
- Price volatile, recently dropped below $68,000, marking a 7% decline.
- Decline attributed to long liquidations, tech stock sell-off contagion, and ETF outflows.
- Bitcoin fell to around $63,000 (50% down from October highs) but rebounded above $66,000 after hitting a low of $60,008 overnight.
DAVE
- Shares up 19% with Q4 revenue growth of 63% year-over-year.
EHC
- Shares up 11% with strong Q4 results and notable EBITDA beat.
MSTR (MicroStrategy)
- Shares rebounded 15% despite significant losses due to Bitcoin exposure.
RBLX (Roblox)
- Shares up 9% with strong Q4 performance and bookings exceeding expectations.
RDDT
- Shares up 8% with revenue significantly above guidance and strong advertising growth.
COTY
- Shares down 10% after withdrawing full-year forecast and disappointing Q3 expectations.
DOCS
- Shares down 27% due to lower-than-expected revenue growth guidance.
MOH (Molina Healthcare)
- Shares down 25% after mixed Q4 results and disappointing EPS guidance for FY26.
STLA (Stellantis)
- Shares down 25% following significant charges and scaling back EV ambitions.
Sector Highlights
- Technology: Software stocks under pressure due to AI competition concerns; Nasdaq hit two-month lows but showed signs of recovery with a nearly 3% gain recently.
- Consumer: Kroger shares rose on new CEO announcement; Li Auto downgraded due to EV market pressures.
- Energy, Industrials, Materials: Cleveland Cliffs reported Q4 adjusted EPS loss but expects improved steel shipments; NatWest to acquire Evelyn Partners for £2.7 billion.
- Financials: Apollo Global Management reported strong earnings; Block Inc. considering workforce reductions; Robinhood and SoFi upgraded.
- Healthcare: Biogen's Q4 results surpassed expectations; Molina Healthcare shares fell sharply.
- Media: FOXA downgraded post-earnings; FUBO upgraded; SNAP beat Q4 expectations.
- Cryptocurrency: Sector struggling with Bitcoin below $70,000; concerns over Fed Chair nomination impacting speculative assets.
- Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices down significantly due to market volatility and ETF outflows.
Economic and Central Bank News
- Bank of England kept interest rates on hold, signaling possible future cuts if inflation falls sharply.
- European Central Bank maintained key interest rates, reaffirming 2% inflation target.
- US job openings declined; layoffs and jobless claims increased, raising market volatility (VIX up 22%).
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading at 57.3, above consensus.
Market Indices
- Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied above 50,000 for the first time.
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq showed recent rebounds after prior declines.