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1. Global Equity Markets and Sector Performance
Global equity markets have experienced mixed performance amid ongoing economic data releases and corporate earnings reports:
- US Markets: The Nasdaq 100 has led a risk-off sentiment due to disappointing tech earnings, with futures down 1.9%. Major tech companies like Cisco (-13%), Apple (-5.3%), Palantir (-4.8%), and AppLovin (-18.5%) reported weak results, triggering broader sell-offs. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones also faced pressure, with the S&P 500 testing critical support levels around 6,900. However, some tech earnings surprises from Arista Networks (+8%) and Applied Materials (+5%) have provided relief. The Russell 2000 index saw a notable rise of nearly 2%, driven by optimism for potential interest rate cuts.
- European Markets: The DAX (DE40) outperformed peers with a 1.13% gain, while the STOXX Europe 600 declined 0.5% amid profit-taking. The FTSE 100 showed mixed results, with some indices like Italy’s FTSE MIB and Spain’s IBEX 35 down over 1.5%. Unilever shares fell 3% after missing revenue estimates, and Mercedes-Benz profits dropped 57% due to tariff costs.
- Asian Markets: Asian equities started 2026 strongly, with the Nikkei 225 and KOSPI reaching record highs. However, recent tech sector sell-offs caused the MSCI Asia-Pacific index to drop 1.1%, with the Hang Seng down 2.1% and Nikkei falling 1.3% on the day but still up nearly 5% for the week.
- Sector Concerns: Investor fears about AI disruption have led to sector-wide sell-offs, impacting financials (Charles Schwab -10%, Morgan Stanley -6%), real estate, trucking, and media sectors (Walt Disney, Netflix).
2. Macroeconomic Data and Central Bank Outlook
- US Labor Market: January non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, exceeding expectations, with unemployment falling to 4.3%. Despite strong job gains, revisions to prior data show slower hiring trends. Retail sales were flat in December, below forecasts. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady for now, with market pricing anticipating possible rate cuts by June.
- US Inflation: The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year, slightly below the 2.5% forecast, with monthly increases of 0.2%. Core inflation met expectations. This softer inflation data has led to a rebound in Nasdaq futures and optimism about future Fed easing.
- UK Economy: The UK showed signs of stagnation with Q4 GDP growth at 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, raising pressure on the Bank of England to consider rate cuts. The British Pound showed resilience but faces risks from a high trade deficit and slowing growth.
- Eurozone: EU GDP grew 1.3% year-over-year, with quarterly growth at 0.3%. Employment rose 0.7%, and the trade surplus widened to EUR 12.6 billion.
- Japan and US Investment Talks: Discussions continue on a $550 billion investment vehicle, with no final decisions yet.
- Federal Reserve Commentary: Fed officials emphasize patience, monitoring economic data before adjusting rates further.
3. Commodities and Precious Metals
- Gold: Gold prices have declined about 3% recently, dropping to near $4,930 per ounce amid a stronger US dollar and anticipation of the Chinese Lunar New Year market closure. Technical analysis shows gold approaching key support levels around the 50-day EMA. Despite recent weakness, gold has shown some recovery attempts.
- Silver: Silver remains above $83, supported by increased scrap sales in the US, which may help ease supply deficits. JP Morgan forecasts notable developments in silver driven by industrial demand, especially in electronics, solar, and EV sectors.
- Platinum: Trading just above $2,100, platinum prices remain stable.
- Oil: WTI crude oil prices have fallen below $65 per barrel, pressured by geopolitical tensions and supply factors. Bears are eyeing a break below $62. Brent crude futures dropped to $67.40 amid easing tensions and increased South American supply.
- Bloomberg Commodity Index: Set for a modest decline, with energy prices particularly affected, while grains have gained due to crop concerns.
4. Currency Markets
- US Dollar: The US dollar has strengthened as a safe haven amid risk-off sentiment and softer inflation data. EUR/USD is volatile around 1.1850, with 1.18 as key support. USD/JPY faces technical pressure, with the yen poised for its best weekly performance in 15 months, trading near 153.08 per dollar. The Australian dollar initially declined but showed recovery signs due to hawkish RBA stance and expectations of Fed rate cuts.
- British Pound: The GBP showed slight gains but remains vulnerable due to economic stagnation and trade deficit concerns.
- Central and Eastern European Currencies: Some depreciation noted amid inflation and EU fund disputes, e.g., Hungarian Forint under pressure.
5. Corporate Earnings and Sector News
- Tech Sector: Cisco shares dropped over 13% after disappointing margins; Apple and Palantir also declined. Robinhood's stock fell nearly 9% due to weak crypto revenues. Upcoming earnings from Applied Materials and Arista Networks are closely watched, with recent positive surprises boosting sentiment.
- Automotive: Mercedes-Benz profits fell 57% due to $1.2 billion in tariff costs, missing forecasts.
- Consumer Goods: Unilever's shares fell 3% after missing revenue estimates despite underlying sales growth.
- Industrial: German firm Ingersoll outperformed expectations, gaining over 6% in valuation.
- Quantum Computing Stocks: Recent sell-offs reflect risk repricing rather than sector demise; long-term growth potential remains.
- British American Tobacco: 2025 results met expectations but public image challenges and regulatory pressures raise concerns about future growth sustainability.
- IBM: Notably increasing entry-level hiring, signaling strategic workforce expansion amid tech sector challenges.
6. Digital Assets and Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin stabilized above $67,000 after recent sell-offs; Ethereum rebounded after dipping below $2,000. Crypto equities remain weak, with ETF outflows indicating a defensive market tone.
- Regulatory and political developments include Senate Banking Committee oversight of investigations related to Federal Reserve leadership.
7. Technical and Volatility Insights
- S&P 500 faces resistance near 7,000, with critical support at 6,900. Dow Jones maintains a bullish trend with positive moving average alignments and momentum indicators.
- Volatility remains elevated, with the VIX around 20.82, reflecting demand for downside protection amid inflation data anticipation.
- USD/JPY shows volatility across multiple time frames, with technical support and resistance levels guiding cautious trading strategies.
8. Upcoming Events and Earnings Calendar
- Key earnings releases this week include Safran, Enbridge, NatWest, Tokio Marine Holdings, Japan Post Bank, TC Energy, and Cameco.
- Next week features major companies such as BHP Group, Medtronic, Palo Alto Networks, Cadence Design Systems, Walmart, Alibaba, Nestle, Airbus, and more.
- Important macroeconomic events include the release of FOMC minutes, PCE inflation report, and New Zealand rate decision.
- Market liquidity expected to be thin due to US Washington’s Birthday, China Lunar New Year, and Brazil Carnival holidays.
9. Geopolitical and Policy Developments
- Geopolitical tensions impact oil prices, with Israeli calls for US action on Iran’s missile program balanced by US preference for a swift nuclear deal.
- Ongoing EU disputes with Hungary threaten fund releases, affecting currency and regional economic outlooks.
- US political developments include commentary on Federal Reserve leadership and tariff policies influencing market sentiment.
Summary and Outlook
The current financial landscape is marked by cautious investor sentiment driven by mixed economic data, disappointing tech earnings, and geopolitical uncertainties. While inflation data offers some relief, markets remain volatile with sector rotations and risk-off behavior evident. Commodities and currencies reflect these dynamics, with precious metals and oil prices under pressure. Corporate earnings and macroeconomic indicators will continue to guide market direction, with upcoming events and policy decisions critical for near-term outlooks. Investors are advised to monitor technical levels, sector-specific risks, and geopolitical developments closely.
Equity Markets
U.S. equity markets have shown mixed performance recently amid a backdrop of cautious investor sentiment. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones have experienced modest pullbacks, with the S&P 500 testing support near 6,870-6,880 and the Dow hovering around 49,500. The Nasdaq has been more volatile, pressured by significant declines in major tech stocks, notably due to AI-related disruption fears and disappointing earnings from companies like Cisco.
Investors are rotating from high-growth tech stocks into more traditional "old economy" sectors such as machinery, financials, and energy. Defensive sectors like utilities and real estate have benefited from falling Treasury yields, which have declined following softer inflation data.
Looking ahead, key earnings reports from Walmart, Deere, Booking, and Palo Alto Networks will be critical in assessing consumer and technology sector resilience. Market participants remain cautious, awaiting further clarity from upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve communications.
Fixed Income and Currency Markets
U.S. Treasuries have rallied recently, marking their best performance in months despite geopolitical concerns, including fears of Chinese banks reducing exposure to U.S. debt. The 2-year Treasury yield is near 4.42%, and the 10-year yield around 4.06%, supporting yield-sensitive sectors.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is relatively stable but faces downward pressure as the Federal Reserve signals a shift toward a neutral interest rate regime. Currency markets show mixed dynamics: the Japanese yen is volatile amid Bank of Japan policy normalization and is trading around 153.00-153.50 per dollar, while antipodean currencies and the euro exhibit modest strength. The Canadian dollar is notably bullish, with speculative net-long positions at multi-year highs.
Commodities and Precious Metals
Precious metals have experienced significant volatility. Gold prices plunged over 3% during a liquidity event but have since rebounded to around $4,960 per ounce, supported by its defensive appeal amid fragile risk sentiment. Silver, after a near 10% drop, is recovering near $77 but remains capped by resistance around $80. Analysts highlight a "Golden Age of Trading" due to these rapid price swings, presenting opportunities amid structural repricing.
Oil prices have softened slightly, with Brent crude near $67.40 per barrel, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and increased supply forecasts. Natural gas prices are bearish due to milder weather expectations. Cocoa prices have also declined to their lowest since October 2023.
Cryptocurrency Market
Bitcoin has faced a challenging environment, with a recent four-day decline driven by stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data that reduced near-term expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The price remains range-bound below $70,000, with technical indicators showing bearish bias but potential for recovery if macro conditions stabilize. ETF outflows and miner financial pressures contribute to subdued market conviction. Ethereum has shown modest gains, trading near $1,976.
Market sentiment remains cautious, with the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index in the Extreme Fear zone. Analysts forecast potential downside to $50,000 in the near term but anticipate a recovery later in 2026, contingent on economic data and legislative developments.
Macroeconomic Factors and Outlook
The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with January Nonfarm Payrolls exceeding expectations (+130,000 jobs) and unemployment steady at 4.3%. This strength has pushed back anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts from June to July 2026. Inflation data is moderating, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasted at 2.5% and Core PCE expected to show a 0.3% monthly increase. These figures will be pivotal in shaping Fed policy and market expectations.
Global geopolitical developments are influencing monetary dynamics. Notably, Russia is reportedly considering a return to U.S. dollar settlements for energy exports, potentially reversing recent de-dollarization trends. In contrast, China is reducing its U.S. asset holdings, favoring gold accumulation, highlighting a fragmented global monetary order.
Investors face key risks including potential AI sector corrections, oil price shocks from geopolitical tensions, renewed U.S.-China trade frictions, and sovereign debt concerns. These factors contribute to an environment of heightened volatility and uncertainty.
Summary and Strategic Considerations
- Equities are navigating volatility with rotation from tech to defensive and traditional sectors.
- Fixed income markets rally amid cautious inflation outlook and Fed policy shifts.
- Precious metals offer defensive value amid geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.
- Cryptocurrencies remain volatile, influenced by macro data and regulatory developments.
- Macroeconomic data releases this week, including FOMC minutes and Core PCE, will be critical for market direction.
Investors are advised to monitor key technical levels, economic indicators, and geopolitical developments closely to navigate this complex and evolving market landscape.
Market Summary
As of February 16, 2026, the US stock market ended the previous week on a lower note despite cooler-than-expected inflation data. The major indices—the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average—all closed down, reflecting a shift in market sentiment after earlier highs.
- S&P 500 declined by 1.39%
- Nasdaq 100 fell by 1.37%
- Dow Jones dropped 614 points, or 1.23%
Amazon's stock notably extended its losing streak to nine consecutive days, closing at $198.79, pressured by its forecasted $200 billion capital expenditure for 2026, well above Wall Street expectations. This has led to a 23% drop from its November peak, nearing critical support levels around $191.
The US markets are closed on Presidents' Day, but the upcoming week is expected to be eventful with key releases including the FOMC meeting minutes, advanced Q4 GDP report, core PCE price index, and flash PMIs. Earnings season continues with major companies like DoorDash, Coca-Cola, Walmart, and NVIDIA reporting results.
Economic Indicators and Inflation
The January inflation report showed a year-over-year headline inflation rate of 2.4%, the lowest since May, with core CPI easing to 2.5%. Softer retail sales and strong non-farm payrolls have increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year, possibly in June or July.
US labor market data remains robust with 130,000 jobs added, supporting a resilient economy that may delay immediate rate cuts. The US Dollar Index is consolidating, with potential downside if it breaks below 96, but a recovery above 98.70 could signal further gains.
Stock Market Sector Highlights
- Technology: Mixed performance with Amazon under pressure; Applied Materials surged over 10% after strong earnings and optimistic sales forecasts; Arista Networks shares rose over 6%.
- Consumer Discretionary: Pinterest shares fell 20% due to disappointing Q4 results and a pessimistic outlook.
- Automotive: Rivian shares rose over 20% following optimistic sales forecasts for a new model.
- International Trade: Alibaba declined about 2% amid US government considerations for export restrictions.
Precious Metals and Commodities
Gold and silver are consolidating amid holiday-thinned liquidity but maintain a bullish outlook supported by softer inflation, falling US Treasury yields, and a weaker US dollar. Gold is trading near $5,000 per ounce, with technical resistance around $5,100 and support near $4,500. Silver shows strong support in the $60–$70 range, indicating potential buy-on-dip opportunities.
Oil markets face a complex environment with oversupply concerns despite geopolitical tensions. Crude oil prices remain range-bound with resistance near $63.62 and support around $60.58. Natural gas prices have declined about 1.2%.
Fixed Income and Bonds
US Treasury bonds show mixed signals with the 5-year and 30-year bonds trading with bullish technical indicators. The 2-year bond shows a sell signal despite long-term moving averages being positive. These dynamics reflect market uncertainty about the timing and extent of Fed rate cuts.
Cryptocurrency Market
Bitcoin has rebounded above $70,000, buoyed by cooling US inflation and increased expectations for Fed rate cuts. However, BTC-spot ETFs have seen a four-week outflow streak, limiting upside potential. Ethereum has gained over 6%, trading above $2,000. XRP experienced a rebound driven by positive regulatory developments, including Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse's appointment to the CFTC advisory panel, signaling a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment.
Technical Market Insights
Technical analysis across various instruments shows mixed signals:
- Major US indices face resistance at key Fibonacci retracement levels, with RSI approaching overbought territory.
- Gold's 4-hour chart indicates a critical support/resistance zone around the 50% Fibonacci retracement near 5,000 USD.
- Silver consolidates above $70, with potential downside to $60 if support fails.
- US Dollar Index is in a narrow range; a break below 96 could lead to further weakness.
- Amazon's stock technicals show pressure near critical support levels.
Outlook
Investors should monitor upcoming US economic data releases, including CPI, PCE, GDP, and FOMC minutes, which will influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and market direction. Earnings reports from major companies will also provide insight into sectoral health. The market remains cautious amid geopolitical risks, inflation dynamics, and evolving regulatory landscapes in cryptocurrencies.
Market Indices
- Dow Jones: Fell 1.34%
- S&P 500: Fell 1.57%, closed at 6,832.76
- Nasdaq: Fell 2.03%
- Russell 2000: Declined 2.01%
Key Economic Data
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January showed a 0.2% monthly increase and 2.4% year-over-year, slightly below expectations, providing some relief but not enough to change Fed rate cut expectations significantly. The January jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000, surpassing estimates, with unemployment falling to 4.3% and average hourly earnings rising 3.7% YoY.
By Symbol
Ford Motor (F)
Reported a miss on Q4 earnings but gave optimistic guidance for 2026, expecting profit growth due to reduced tariff impacts.
BorgWarner (BWA)
Exceeded Q4 estimates, driven by demand for electrified powertrains.
PSN
Shares fell after missing Q4 EPS estimates and lowering revenue guidance for 2026.
SAIC
Pre-announced Q4 results and lowered FY27 revenue guidance due to government shutdown impacts.
Amazon (BETA)
Shares rose 17% after disclosing a stake in an aerospace start-up.
Generac (GNRC)
Shares gained 12% despite missing Q4 estimates, with upbeat FY26 outlook.
Lam Research (LSCC)
Reported better Q4 results and raised Q1 guidance, shares up 11%.
Cloudflare (NET)
Exceeded Q4 expectations with significant growth in annual contract value, shares up 10%.
Shopify (SHOP)
Guided revenue growth above analyst estimates and announced a share repurchase program, shares up 12%.
Micron (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK)
Memory stocks showed early strength following positive comments from Samsung on memory chip demand.
Coinbase (COIN)
Reported disappointing Q4 earnings, shares declined amid sector-wide AI disruption concerns.
Applied Materials (AMAT) and Arista Networks (ANET)
Both reported better-than-expected earnings; Arista shares rose over 6%, Applied Materials surged over 10%.
Pinterest (PINS)
Shares fell 20% after disappointing Q4 results and a pessimistic revenue outlook.
McDonald's (MCD)
Reported Q4 comp sales growth of 5.7%, beating estimates, but shares slipped.
Mercedes-Benz
Annual profits dropped 57% due to tariff costs and competition, operating profit missed forecasts.
ICON
Shares plummeted over 20% due to accounting investigations.
Fastly (FSLY)
Shares surged over 30% after a strong earnings report.
Rivian (RIVN)
Shares rose over 20% after optimistic sales forecasts for a new car model.
Natural Gas (NATGAS)
Trading muted at 3.15, down 2.16%, with a smaller than expected inventory drawdown reported.
Gold
Prices fell sharply by about 3-4%, reaching near one-week lows amid diminished expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Crude Oil
Prices retreated below $65 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions and revised demand forecasts.
Market Sentiment
Investors remain cautious amid concerns about AI disruptions affecting financial and tech sectors, mixed earnings reports, and upcoming inflation data. The market is navigating volatility with defensive sectors like industrials, materials, energy, and consumer staples showing relative strength.