AI-driven quant research & market intelligence platform
Know the regime. Know the bias. Trade with a plan.
Know the regime
Risk-on/off, volatility and data driven context (40+ quant models) — so you stop guessing.
Know the bias
Today vs modeled future across timeframes (short, mid, 6–12 months).
Know what matters today
Key levels, invalidations, movers, watchlists — the “what to check first” scan.
Then $99/month. Cancel anytime.
Portal preview: today vs future projection for Bitcoin, built to answer fast — “what’s the future projection bias, and what do I do, what would change it?”
See what’s inside →
1. Equity Markets Overview
Global equity markets have experienced notable volatility and sector rotation in early February 2026. Key themes include:
- US Markets: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have faced pressure, with the Nasdaq 100 losing all gains for the year amid concerns over stretched valuations and AI-related capital spending. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has shown resilience, reaching near 50,000, supported by value sectors such as consumer staples, industrials, and financials.
- European Markets: European indices like the Euro Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 have been mixed, with some rebound attempts after Wall Street sell-offs. UK assets are under pressure due to political uncertainties and rising gilt yields, with Vodafone shares dropping sharply on weak German revenue.
- Asian Markets: Asian equities, including Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's Kospi, have mirrored US tech weakness, reflecting global interconnectedness and investor caution.
Investor sentiment is shifting from growth and tech stocks towards more defensive sectors amid concerns about AI disruption and elevated valuations.
2. Technology Sector and AI Impact
The technology sector, particularly software and AI-related stocks, is under significant pressure:
- US software shares have declined for seven consecutive sessions, with the S&P 500 software index about 21% below its 200-day moving average, erasing nearly $1 trillion in market value.
- Major tech companies such as Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, ServiceNow, Salesforce, AMD, NVIDIA, and Palantir have seen sharp stock declines, driven by concerns over high capital expenditures on AI and doubts about the sustainability of AI monetization.
- New AI tools like Anthropic's Claude Cowork raise fears of disruption to traditional software business models, potentially reducing demand for existing software-as-a-service offerings.
- Investor rotation out of growth stocks into defensive sectors is accompanied by rising short interest and reduced hedge fund exposure, increasing market volatility.
3. Cryptocurrency Market Developments
Bitcoin and other digital assets have experienced significant declines, impacting broader market sentiment:
- Bitcoin has dropped approximately 42% from its October 2025 peak, trading around $70,000 with potential further downside towards $68,000 or $54,000 long-term support.
- The decline is linked to the exhaustion of the "AI trade," reduced institutional support, and concerns about Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening under the new chair nominee.
- Bitcoin's price movements show strong correlation with tech stocks, especially AI-related equities, due to shared liquidity flows.
- Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies have also weakened, with outflows from crypto investment funds raising fears of forced liquidations.
4. Commodities and Precious Metals
Precious metals and commodities markets have been volatile amid geopolitical tensions and shifting investor preferences:
- Gold experienced its largest daily gain since 2008, rallying above $5,000 per ounce driven by safe-haven demand amid market uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
- Silver prices have been more volatile, with sharp declines of around 13-16% in recent weeks, reflecting speculative positioning and heavy selling in markets like China.
- Oil prices fluctuated due to geopolitical developments, including the US downing of an Iranian drone and ongoing US-Iran talks, which eased some supply concerns but kept prices volatile around $63-$64 per barrel.
- Spreads on precious metals have widened, indicating increased volatility and trading costs, which may impact leveraged trading strategies.
5. Fixed Income and Currency Markets
- US Treasury yields have slightly declined, with the 10-year yield around 4.19%, while Japanese government bonds have attracted safe-haven buying.
- UK gilt yields have risen, with the 10-year rate reaching the highest since late November, reflecting political risk premiums and fiscal concerns.
- The US dollar has strengthened against major currencies, including the euro and British pound, which has weakened amid dovish Bank of England policy signals and political uncertainties.
- The EUR/USD pair is testing key support levels following the European Central Bank's decision to maintain rates at 2.0%.
- The USD/JPY currency pair is in a rising trend channel, approaching a significant resistance level at 158, with bullish investor sentiment but potential volatility near resistance.
6. Corporate Earnings and Sector Highlights
- Q4 2025 earnings season shows strength, with 79% of S&P 500 companies beating estimates and average surprises of 8.2%, lifting earnings growth estimates to 11.4% for 2026.
- Alphabet reported strong earnings but disappointed with a large increase in capital expenditure guidance ($175-$185 billion vs. $115 billion expected), pressuring its stock.
- Amazon announced a 50%+ increase in capital spending, raising concerns about AI investment returns and contributing to a 4.4% stock drop in regular trading and 10% after-hours.
- Volvo Car AB shares plunged over 20% after disastrous Q4 results, with profits down 60%, EPS missing expectations, and weak revenue, compounded by fading EV subsidies and margin pressures.
- Other corporate highlights include UBS's $3 billion share buyback announcement, Credit Agricole's disappointing results, and strong performances from Eli Lilly and GlaxoSmithKline.
7. Economic Data and Central Bank Actions
- Key upcoming economic releases include US January ADP employment, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and services PMI data, as well as Eurozone CPI and PPI figures.
- The Bank of England is expected to hold rates at 3.75%, navigating inflation control and growth support amid a split vote among policymakers.
- The European Central Bank maintained rates at 2.0%, with a press conference expected to influence euro performance.
- Tightening lending conditions in the US have led to a contraction in Commercial & Industrial lending, the longest non-recessionary credit contraction since 1990, potentially signaling industrial production slowdowns.
- Mexico faces economic challenges with stagnant GDP per capita and weak productivity despite nearshoring opportunities.
8. Geopolitical and Market Sentiment Factors
- Renewed US-Iran tensions following the downing of an Iranian drone have caused oil price volatility and increased geopolitical risk premiums.
- Fears of a US government shutdown and political uncertainties in the UK have weighed on market sentiment.
- Investor caution is heightened due to concerns about AI-driven disruption, stretched valuations, and the sustainability of recent market rallies.
- Market volatility remains elevated, with the VIX index around 18.6, reflecting investor nervousness ahead of central bank communications and labor market data.
9. Investment and Trading Insights
- Investors are advised to monitor the evolving AI investment narrative closely, as spending fatigue and valuation reassessments could impact tech sector performance.
- Precious metals trading requires caution due to increased spreads and volatility; strategic use of spread-based options may help manage risk.
- Opportunities may exist in oversold commodities like silver and industrial metals, though geopolitical and supply factors remain key risks.
- Currency traders should watch key resistance and support levels in USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD, especially around central bank announcements.
- Risk management remains critical amid ongoing market uncertainty, with diversification and hedging strategies recommended.
Equity Markets and Sector Dynamics
US equity markets have shown mixed performance amid ongoing volatility. The S&P 500 futures hover near 6,950, supported by strong earnings momentum, with the index on track for its fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Key sectors driving this growth include Industrials (+25.6% earnings growth), Information Technology (+29.8%), and Communication Services (+10.2%). Future earnings growth is projected to remain robust, with consensus estimates for 2026 quarters ranging from 11.7% to 15.4% EPS growth.
However, the technology sector faces headwinds due to concerns over high valuations and AI-related spending. Notably, major tech companies like Amazon and Alphabet have seen stock price declines following announcements of substantial AI investments, raising investor concerns about returns. The US software sector has experienced a significant selloff, with the S&P 500 software index about 21% below its 200-day moving average, reflecting fears of AI disrupting existing business models.
Investor sentiment is shifting from growth to more defensive sectors such as consumer staples, energy, and industrials, contributing to heightened market volatility, the highest since November. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains in a medium-term uptrend, targeting the psychological 50,000 level, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 face near-term bearish pressures.
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Influences
Macroeconomic factors continue to shape market dynamics. The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained interest rates, with inflation aligning near the 2% target, supported by easing energy prices and stable long-term inflation expectations. Eurozone growth is modest but steady, with improvements in construction, business sentiment, and labor markets.
In the US, consumer sentiment is expected to decline slightly, potentially dampening private consumption, which accounts for about 65% of GDP. The Bank of Japan's hawkish rhetoric has strengthened the yen and pressured US equity futures. Geopolitical developments, including ongoing US-Iran negotiations and Ukraine-Russia talks, are closely monitored as they influence risk sentiment and market volatility.
Commodities and Precious Metals
Precious metals have experienced volatility amid market uncertainty. Gold briefly surpassed $5,000 but retreated due to profit-taking, with technical support near $4,400 critical for maintaining bullish momentum. Silver has faced a sharp correction, dropping over 10% to below $80 after a parabolic rally in 2025, driven largely by forced liquidations of leveraged speculative positions. Copper prices remain at pivotal support levels, with short- and medium-term outlooks bullish if key thresholds hold.
Margin requirements for gold and silver contracts have been raised by the CME to manage volatility. China's reduced gold consumption and geopolitical tensions add complexity to the metals outlook. Overall, precious metals remain sensitive to central bank policies and global risk sentiment.
Energy and Natural Gas
US natural gas futures have declined to around $286.5 but are stabilizing near the 200-day simple moving average at $317.1, indicating a neutral short-term outlook. Energy sector stocks are benefiting from the rotation into defensive sectors amid equity market volatility.
Cryptocurrency Market
The cryptocurrency market has been under pressure, with Bitcoin dropping to around $60,000, marking a 16-month low and down approximately 27% year-to-date. XRP has experienced a sharp selloff due to risk-off sentiment, leveraged liquidations, and cautious institutional flows, with bearish technical outlooks unless key resistance levels are surpassed. Ethereum and other major cryptos have also declined but showed partial rebounds recently.
Bitcoin's price movements are closely correlated with tech stocks, especially AI-related equities, reflecting shared liquidity patterns. This interdependence means declines in Bitcoin can exert downward pressure on technology sectors.
Corporate Highlights
- Volvo Car AB: Shares plunged over 20% following disastrous Q4 2025 results, with profits down more than 60% year-on-year and EPS missing expectations. The company faces margin pressures, subsidy program expirations, and competitive challenges, with a bleak outlook for 2026.
- Amazon: Despite strong AWS growth, shares fell sharply after announcing plans to increase AI capital spending by over 50%, raising concerns about investment returns.
- Alphabet: Forecasted significant AI spending increases, sparking optimism in chipmakers like Nvidia and Broadcom, though investor reactions remain mixed.
- UBS Group AG: Reported better-than-expected profits and announced a $3 billion share buyback plan for 2026.
- Oracle: Plans to raise up to $50 billion to expand cloud infrastructure and AI projects.
- Disney: Shares declined over 7% following disappointing quarterly results and face challenges under new leadership.
Technical Market Levels to Watch
- Dow Jones: Resistance between 49,200-49,700; support near 48,600-48,700 and 50-day EMA at 48,719.
- Nasdaq 100: Resistance at 25,200-25,850; support at 25,000 and 200-day EMA at 24,052.
- S&P 500: Resistance near 6,945-7,020; support at 6,800 and 200-day EMA at 6,555.
- Gold: Critical support at $4,400; resistance near $5,000-$5,100.
- Silver: Support zone between $70-$72; resistance near $100.
- EUR/JPY: Uptrend continuation expected with support near ¥184.28 and resistance at ¥185.51.
- GBP/USD: Trading near $1.373 with potential upside to $1.386 if above $1.375; downside risk below $1.365.
- EUR/USD: Steady around $1.183; key support at $1.178 and resistance near $1.190-$1.20.
Outlook and Summary
The current market landscape is marked by volatility and a cautious investor stance, driven by geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic data, and sector-specific challenges. While short-term pressures persist, especially in technology and cryptocurrencies, strong earnings growth and potential Fed rate cuts in H1 2026 provide a constructive medium-term outlook. Investors are advised to monitor key technical levels, earnings reports, and geopolitical developments closely to navigate this complex environment.
Market Performance and Sentiment
On February 6, 2026, US markets showed mixed but cautiously optimistic signs after a recent period of volatility. Wall Street rebounded with the VIX volatility index dropping about 5%, signaling reduced market fear. The S&P 500 futures hovered near 6,950, supported by strong earnings momentum, while the US500 futures rose over 0.7%, and the US100 index gained about 1.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 236 points (0.48%) in early trading, with the Nasdaq up 0.79% and the S&P 500 up 0.63% in futures trading, reflecting a recovery from recent tech sector sell-offs.
Technology Sector and Earnings Season
The US earnings season continues to be a key driver of market dynamics. The S&P 500 is on track for its fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth, with blended EPS growth for Q4 rising from 8.2% to 11.9%. Key sectors leading growth include Industrials (+25.6%), Information Technology (+29.8%), and Communication Services (+10.2%).
However, the technology sector has faced significant pressure recently, with a notable selloff in software and semiconductor stocks. The S&P 500 software index is about 21% below its 200-day moving average, losing nearly $1 trillion in market value amid concerns about AI disrupting existing business models. Major tech companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Qualcomm have seen mixed results, with some reporting disappointing forecasts or increased capital expenditures, particularly in AI investments. For example, Alphabet announced record capital expenditures up to $185 billion for 2026, which weighed on its stock price despite strong revenue driven by AI monetization.
Investor sentiment is shifting from growth to value stocks, with defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples, Energy, and Industrials gaining favor. The Philadelphia semiconductor index is down 3.4%, while sectors like gold, silver, telecoms, and utilities are seeing gains. This rotation reflects caution amid ongoing uncertainties in tech earnings and AI spending.
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors
Labor market data has shown signs of cooling, with Challenger layoffs rising sharply and initial jobless claims exceeding expectations. The JOLTS report indicated job additions below forecasts, contributing to market caution. Additionally, the US Non-Farm Payrolls report has been delayed due to a partial government shutdown, adding to uncertainty.
Geopolitically, ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks and meaningful discussions between Ukraine and Russia are viewed positively by investors, reducing fears of military escalation. The US military recently shot down an Iranian drone near the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, underscoring tensions but also the importance of diplomatic efforts.
Fixed Income and Currency Markets
US Treasury yields have fallen sharply due to weak job data and increased layoffs, with high yield spreads widening. The 5-year and 10-year US bond yields are showing buy signals technically, with the 10-year yield last closing at 112.219 and the 5-year at 109.121, both supported by multiple moving averages.
The US Dollar Index is testing key resistance levels between 97.25 and 97.60, with support around 96.50 to 97.00. The USD/CAD pair is in a descending channel, facing technical tests ahead. The USD/JPY pair fell to 156.740 following hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan, which suggested further rate hikes despite weak economic data.
Commodities and Cryptocurrencies
Precious metals have experienced volatility. Gold prices dropped to around $4,680 due to increased margin requirements and easing geopolitical tensions but found strong technical support near $4,400. Silver has been more volatile, falling about 16% recently but rebounding about 3.5% on February 6 to around $73 per ounce. Platinum futures also declined by 6%.
Energy markets saw US natural gas futures decline to $286.5 before stabilizing near the 200-day SMA at $317.1. Oil prices reversed previous gains, with WTI crude around $63.21 per barrel. The cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, with Bitcoin dropping to around $60,000, a 16-month low, and Ethereum near $2,090, both reflecting risk-off sentiment.
Notable Company News
- Alphabet (GOOGL): Reported strong earnings driven by AI and cloud growth but shares fell due to high capex guidance.
- Amazon: Shares dropped after announcing a 50%+ increase in capital spending focused on AI.
- Qualcomm: Fell nearly 10% after weak sales guidance amid memory price pressures.
- Palantir Technologies: Rose over 7% following strong earnings despite being down 12% YTD.
- Disney: Shares down 8% YTD despite new CEO appointment, facing challenges in turnaround.
- Volvo Car AB: Shares plunged over 20% after disastrous Q4 2025 results, with profit down 60% YoY.
Technical Market Insights
The US100 index has broken below a key uptrend line and 38.2% Fibonacci support, with sellers in control. Recovery above this level is critical to avoid further declines. The Dow Jones remains above its January lows, targeting the psychological 50,000 level. The S&P 500 is attempting to hold above support near 6,870-6,880, with risks of moving lower if this fails.
Outlook
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about continued double-digit earnings growth through 2026, with consensus EPS growth projections around 11.7% to 15.4% across the quarters. However, high valuations and ongoing uncertainties in tech earnings, AI investment returns, and macroeconomic data pose risks. Market participants are advised to monitor earnings reports from major tech companies closely, as their performance will be pivotal in shaping near-term market direction.
AMZN (Amazon)
- Reported mixed Q4 earnings; EPS $1.95 slightly below estimates.
- Revenues of $213.4 billion.
- Stock dropped 8% after announcing a $200 billion cap-ex guidance for 2026, well above consensus of $146 billion.
- Full-year forecast withdrawn by Coty; MGM Resorts beat Q4 expectations.
GOOGL (Alphabet)
- Reported strong quarterly results.
- Market reacted negatively to significant increase in capital expenditure guidance.
- Shares declined amid broader tech sector weakness.
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)
- Stock down nearly 10-16% after disappointing sales outlook and weak guidance.
- Concerns about sustainability of AI monetization momentum.
NVDA (Nvidia) & MSFT (Microsoft)
- Shares declined over 3% amid tech sector sell-off.
- Pressure from concerns over AI competition and software sector weakness.
PLTR (Palantir)
- Q4 earnings beat expectations with significant revenue growth.
- Stock gained approximately 6%.
PYPL (PayPal)
- Shares fell 20% following disappointing earnings and guidance.
LLY (Eli Lilly)
- Shares surged 7% on better-than-expected quarterly results.
- Reported strong 43% year-on-year sales increase.
ENPH (Enphase Energy)
- Shares rose 34% following strong Q4 results and guidance.
UBER
- Shares down 6% due to mixed results and lower guidance.
VOLVO
- Shares plunged over 20% after disastrous Q4 2025 results.
- Profit fell more than 60% YoY; EPS 0.43 SEK vs. expected 1.52 SEK.
- Revenue declined to 94.4 billion SEK, below expectations.
- Management provided no positive outlook; EV subsidy program ends and margin pressures persist.
BTC (Bitcoin)
- Price dropped to around $63,000, a 50% decline from October 2026 highs, then rebounded to over $66,000.
- Continued pressure from tech sell-off and ETF outflows.
Gold
- Posted biggest daily gain since 2008, up 6% to $4,938.5 per ounce.
- Defensive demand amid market uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
Oil (WTI Crude)
- Prices rose about 2% following U.S. military action against an Iranian drone.
- Concerns over diplomatic tensions impacting supply.
Other Notable Movers
- PayPal (PYPL) down 20% after weak earnings.
- Syngenta planning a $10 billion Hong Kong listing.
- Beazley shares surged 8% amid takeover rumors.
- UBS down 5% despite strong results and buyback announcement.