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Global Equity Markets
Equity markets have experienced significant volatility, driven primarily by concerns over technology sector valuations and artificial intelligence (AI) investment returns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied to new all-time highs, supported by sectors such as Transports, Industrials, Materials, Energy, and Consumer Staples. However, the technology sector, especially software stocks, has been under pressure, with the S&P 500 Index falling below 6,800 after nearing 7,000 recently.
Major tech companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and AMD have seen sharp declines due to concerns about the scale and return on their AI-related capital expenditures. Amazon's announcement of a $200 billion investment in 2026, part of a $650 billion AI investment wave among tech giants, triggered a 10% after-hours share drop. The Nasdaq 100 has lost all its gains for the year, reflecting a rotation away from growth stocks towards more defensive sectors such as consumer staples, energy, and industrials.
Small-cap and international equities have shown relative strength, with the Russell 2000 up about 7.5% year-to-date and developed international markets rising approximately 7%. Earnings season has been robust, with 79% of S&P 500 companies beating estimates, lifting earnings growth forecasts from 7.2% to 11.4% across sectors.
Cryptocurrency and Digital Assets
Bitcoin has faced a steep decline, falling below $68,000 for the first time since November 2024, marking a 7% drop recently and over 40% from its all-time high near $126,000. This decline is linked to a broader risk-off sentiment, long liquidations, and ETF outflows. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, perceived as hawkish, has raised concerns about monetary tightening and reduced liquidity, negatively impacting speculative assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's price movements show a strong correlation with tech stocks, especially AI-related equities, with liquidity flows linking these markets. The weakening institutional support and government skepticism have further pressured the crypto market. Ethereum and other digital assets have also experienced outflows, contributing to fragile sentiment.
Precious Metals and Commodities
Precious metals have experienced volatility and declines amid a strengthening US dollar and risk-off market conditions. Gold prices dropped over $90 to around $4,855 per ounce, while silver fell approximately 13% to $73 per ounce. Silver's dramatic decline from all-time highs has eased concerns about physical supply shortages, particularly in China, but it remains vulnerable to further liquidations.
Oil prices have been influenced by geopolitical developments, notably renewed US-Iran talks, which eased tensions and led to a nearly 2% drop in oil prices. US natural gas prices have remained steady amid these dynamics.
Fixed Income and Currency Markets
US Treasury yields have fluctuated, with the 10-year yield rising slightly amid improved risk sentiment but also plunging following weak job data and increased layoffs. The VIX volatility index rose 22% to 22.80, reflecting heightened market uncertainty.
The US dollar has shown mixed performance, strengthening against some currencies like the British pound, which weakened following dovish comments from the Bank of England (BoE). The BoE held interest rates steady at 3.75% after a narrow 5-4 vote, signaling potential future cuts if inflation falls sharply. The European Central Bank (ECB) also maintained rates at 2.15%, reaffirming its 2% inflation target despite global economic challenges.
The Japanese yen weakened to near ¥157 ahead of general elections, with concerns about fiscal credibility amid high public debt. The Mexican peso is under pressure ahead of the Banco de México (Banxico) rate decision, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut from 7.00% to 6.75%, narrowing the interest rate differential with the US and potentially weakening the peso further.
Economic Data Highlights
- US JOLTS job openings fell to 6.542 million in December 2025, below expectations.
- Layoffs surged by 205% in December, with Challenger reporting over 108,000 job cuts.
- Initial US jobless claims rose to 231,000, exceeding forecasts.
- Japan's household spending declined 2.6% year-on-year in December, missing expectations.
- US job quits increased to 3.204 million, notably in retail and information sectors.
Sector and Company News
Technology
Software and data services stocks have declined sharply, with the S&P 500 software index about 21% below its 200-day moving average. Key companies like ServiceNow, Salesforce, and Microsoft have seen significant share price drops. Alphabet's strong quarterly results were overshadowed by its elevated capital expenditure guidance.
Automotive
Volvo Car AB shares plunged over 20% following disastrous Q4 2025 results, with profits falling more than 60% year-on-year and revenue missing expectations. The company faces margin pressures from the end of EV subsidies and foreign competition.
Chemicals
Syngenta Group plans a Hong Kong listing potentially raising $10 billion. Jefferies upgraded Celanese (CE) to Buy, citing improved demand dynamics. FMC shares dropped 20% after announcing a potential sale and disappointing earnings forecasts.
Media and Communications
Fox Corporation (FOXA) was downgraded post-earnings, while FuboTV (FUBO) received an upgrade due to a new business model. Sirius XM (SIRI) reported unexpected subscriber growth, and Snap (SNAP) exceeded Q4 expectations.
Insurance
Aflac (AFL) missed EPS estimates due to corporate losses, whereas Allstate (ALL) and MetLife (MET) reported better-than-expected earnings driven by reserve developments and investment income.
Market Sentiment and Outlook
Investor sentiment remains cautious amid elevated volatility and uncertainty over AI investment returns and macroeconomic data. The market is navigating a rotation from high-growth tech stocks to value and defensive sectors. Upcoming US non-farm payrolls (NFP), inflation data, and corporate earnings from major companies like Coca-Cola, Ford, McDonald's, and Cisco will be critical in shaping near-term market direction.
Precious metals and cryptocurrencies continue to reflect risk-off sentiment, while fixed income markets respond to labor market weakness and geopolitical developments. Currency markets are influenced by central bank policies and political events, including the UK’s political uncertainties and Japan’s upcoming elections.
Geopolitical and Macro Developments
Geopolitical tensions remain a factor, with US-Iran talks impacting oil prices and global risk sentiment. In the Middle East, Iran faces significant internal protests, while investigations reveal the financial empire of Iran’s Supreme Leader’s son, highlighting complex geopolitical financial networks.
Equity Markets and Sector Dynamics
US equity markets have shown mixed performance amid ongoing volatility. The S&P 500 futures hover near 6,950, supported by strong earnings momentum, with the index on track for its fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Key sectors driving this growth include Industrials (+25.6% earnings growth), Information Technology (+29.8%), and Communication Services (+10.2%). Future earnings growth is projected to remain robust, with consensus estimates for 2026 quarters ranging from 11.7% to 15.4% EPS growth.
However, the technology sector faces headwinds due to concerns over high valuations and AI-related spending. Notably, major tech companies like Amazon and Alphabet have seen stock price declines following announcements of substantial AI investments, raising investor concerns about returns. The US software sector has experienced a significant selloff, with the S&P 500 software index about 21% below its 200-day moving average, reflecting fears of AI disrupting existing business models.
Investor sentiment is shifting from growth to more defensive sectors such as consumer staples, energy, and industrials, contributing to heightened market volatility, the highest since November. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains in a medium-term uptrend, targeting the psychological 50,000 level, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 face near-term bearish pressures.
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Influences
Macroeconomic factors continue to shape market dynamics. The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained interest rates, with inflation aligning near the 2% target, supported by easing energy prices and stable long-term inflation expectations. Eurozone growth is modest but steady, with improvements in construction, business sentiment, and labor markets.
In the US, consumer sentiment is expected to decline slightly, potentially dampening private consumption, which accounts for about 65% of GDP. The Bank of Japan's hawkish rhetoric has strengthened the yen and pressured US equity futures. Geopolitical developments, including ongoing US-Iran negotiations and Ukraine-Russia talks, are closely monitored as they influence risk sentiment and market volatility.
Commodities and Precious Metals
Precious metals have experienced volatility amid market uncertainty. Gold briefly surpassed $5,000 but retreated due to profit-taking, with technical support near $4,400 critical for maintaining bullish momentum. Silver has faced a sharp correction, dropping over 10% to below $80 after a parabolic rally in 2025, driven largely by forced liquidations of leveraged speculative positions. Copper prices remain at pivotal support levels, with short- and medium-term outlooks bullish if key thresholds hold.
Margin requirements for gold and silver contracts have been raised by the CME to manage volatility. China's reduced gold consumption and geopolitical tensions add complexity to the metals outlook. Overall, precious metals remain sensitive to central bank policies and global risk sentiment.
Energy and Natural Gas
US natural gas futures have declined to around $286.5 but are stabilizing near the 200-day simple moving average at $317.1, indicating a neutral short-term outlook. Energy sector stocks are benefiting from the rotation into defensive sectors amid equity market volatility.
Cryptocurrency Market
The cryptocurrency market has been under pressure, with Bitcoin dropping to around $60,000, marking a 16-month low and down approximately 27% year-to-date. XRP has experienced a sharp selloff due to risk-off sentiment, leveraged liquidations, and cautious institutional flows, with bearish technical outlooks unless key resistance levels are surpassed. Ethereum and other major cryptos have also declined but showed partial rebounds recently.
Bitcoin's price movements are closely correlated with tech stocks, especially AI-related equities, reflecting shared liquidity patterns. This interdependence means declines in Bitcoin can exert downward pressure on technology sectors.
Corporate Highlights
- Volvo Car AB: Shares plunged over 20% following disastrous Q4 2025 results, with profits down more than 60% year-on-year and EPS missing expectations. The company faces margin pressures, subsidy program expirations, and competitive challenges, with a bleak outlook for 2026.
- Amazon: Despite strong AWS growth, shares fell sharply after announcing plans to increase AI capital spending by over 50%, raising concerns about investment returns.
- Alphabet: Forecasted significant AI spending increases, sparking optimism in chipmakers like Nvidia and Broadcom, though investor reactions remain mixed.
- UBS Group AG: Reported better-than-expected profits and announced a $3 billion share buyback plan for 2026.
- Oracle: Plans to raise up to $50 billion to expand cloud infrastructure and AI projects.
- Disney: Shares declined over 7% following disappointing quarterly results and face challenges under new leadership.
Technical Market Levels to Watch
- Dow Jones: Resistance between 49,200-49,700; support near 48,600-48,700 and 50-day EMA at 48,719.
- Nasdaq 100: Resistance at 25,200-25,850; support at 25,000 and 200-day EMA at 24,052.
- S&P 500: Resistance near 6,945-7,020; support at 6,800 and 200-day EMA at 6,555.
- Gold: Critical support at $4,400; resistance near $5,000-$5,100.
- Silver: Support zone between $70-$72; resistance near $100.
- EUR/JPY: Uptrend continuation expected with support near ¥184.28 and resistance at ¥185.51.
- GBP/USD: Trading near $1.373 with potential upside to $1.386 if above $1.375; downside risk below $1.365.
- EUR/USD: Steady around $1.183; key support at $1.178 and resistance near $1.190-$1.20.
Outlook and Summary
The current market landscape is marked by volatility and a cautious investor stance, driven by geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic data, and sector-specific challenges. While short-term pressures persist, especially in technology and cryptocurrencies, strong earnings growth and potential Fed rate cuts in H1 2026 provide a constructive medium-term outlook. Investors are advised to monitor key technical levels, earnings reports, and geopolitical developments closely to navigate this complex environment.
Market Performance and Sentiment
On February 6, 2026, US markets showed mixed but cautiously optimistic signs after a recent period of volatility. Wall Street rebounded with the VIX volatility index dropping about 5%, signaling reduced market fear. The S&P 500 futures hovered near 6,950, supported by strong earnings momentum, while the US500 futures rose over 0.7%, and the US100 index gained about 1.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 236 points (0.48%) in early trading, with the Nasdaq up 0.79% and the S&P 500 up 0.63% in futures trading, reflecting a recovery from recent tech sector sell-offs.
Technology Sector and Earnings Season
The US earnings season continues to be a key driver of market dynamics. The S&P 500 is on track for its fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth, with blended EPS growth for Q4 rising from 8.2% to 11.9%. Key sectors leading growth include Industrials (+25.6%), Information Technology (+29.8%), and Communication Services (+10.2%).
However, the technology sector has faced significant pressure recently, with a notable selloff in software and semiconductor stocks. The S&P 500 software index is about 21% below its 200-day moving average, losing nearly $1 trillion in market value amid concerns about AI disrupting existing business models. Major tech companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Qualcomm have seen mixed results, with some reporting disappointing forecasts or increased capital expenditures, particularly in AI investments. For example, Alphabet announced record capital expenditures up to $185 billion for 2026, which weighed on its stock price despite strong revenue driven by AI monetization.
Investor sentiment is shifting from growth to value stocks, with defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples, Energy, and Industrials gaining favor. The Philadelphia semiconductor index is down 3.4%, while sectors like gold, silver, telecoms, and utilities are seeing gains. This rotation reflects caution amid ongoing uncertainties in tech earnings and AI spending.
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors
Labor market data has shown signs of cooling, with Challenger layoffs rising sharply and initial jobless claims exceeding expectations. The JOLTS report indicated job additions below forecasts, contributing to market caution. Additionally, the US Non-Farm Payrolls report has been delayed due to a partial government shutdown, adding to uncertainty.
Geopolitically, ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks and meaningful discussions between Ukraine and Russia are viewed positively by investors, reducing fears of military escalation. The US military recently shot down an Iranian drone near the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, underscoring tensions but also the importance of diplomatic efforts.
Fixed Income and Currency Markets
US Treasury yields have fallen sharply due to weak job data and increased layoffs, with high yield spreads widening. The 5-year and 10-year US bond yields are showing buy signals technically, with the 10-year yield last closing at 112.219 and the 5-year at 109.121, both supported by multiple moving averages.
The US Dollar Index is testing key resistance levels between 97.25 and 97.60, with support around 96.50 to 97.00. The USD/CAD pair is in a descending channel, facing technical tests ahead. The USD/JPY pair fell to 156.740 following hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan, which suggested further rate hikes despite weak economic data.
Commodities and Cryptocurrencies
Precious metals have experienced volatility. Gold prices dropped to around $4,680 due to increased margin requirements and easing geopolitical tensions but found strong technical support near $4,400. Silver has been more volatile, falling about 16% recently but rebounding about 3.5% on February 6 to around $73 per ounce. Platinum futures also declined by 6%.
Energy markets saw US natural gas futures decline to $286.5 before stabilizing near the 200-day SMA at $317.1. Oil prices reversed previous gains, with WTI crude around $63.21 per barrel. The cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, with Bitcoin dropping to around $60,000, a 16-month low, and Ethereum near $2,090, both reflecting risk-off sentiment.
Notable Company News
- Alphabet (GOOGL): Reported strong earnings driven by AI and cloud growth but shares fell due to high capex guidance.
- Amazon: Shares dropped after announcing a 50%+ increase in capital spending focused on AI.
- Qualcomm: Fell nearly 10% after weak sales guidance amid memory price pressures.
- Palantir Technologies: Rose over 7% following strong earnings despite being down 12% YTD.
- Disney: Shares down 8% YTD despite new CEO appointment, facing challenges in turnaround.
- Volvo Car AB: Shares plunged over 20% after disastrous Q4 2025 results, with profit down 60% YoY.
Technical Market Insights
The US100 index has broken below a key uptrend line and 38.2% Fibonacci support, with sellers in control. Recovery above this level is critical to avoid further declines. The Dow Jones remains above its January lows, targeting the psychological 50,000 level. The S&P 500 is attempting to hold above support near 6,870-6,880, with risks of moving lower if this fails.
Outlook
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about continued double-digit earnings growth through 2026, with consensus EPS growth projections around 11.7% to 15.4% across the quarters. However, high valuations and ongoing uncertainties in tech earnings, AI investment returns, and macroeconomic data pose risks. Market participants are advised to monitor earnings reports from major tech companies closely, as their performance will be pivotal in shaping near-term market direction.
AMZN (Amazon)
- Reported mixed Q4 earnings with EPS of $1.95, slightly below estimates.
- Revenues of $213.4 billion.
- Announced a very high capital expenditure guidance of approximately $200 billion for 2026, well above consensus.
- Stock down about 9% due to mixed results and high capex forecast.
GOOGL (Alphabet)
- Exceeded Q4 revenue expectations with $97.23 billion vs. $95.16 billion expected.
- EPS of $2.82 vs. $2.65 expected.
- Gross profit margin at 59.8%.
- Q4 capex was $27.85 billion; total 2025 capex over $91 billion.
- Projected 2026 capex between $175 billion and $185 billion, significantly above expectations.
- Shares dipped about 1.5% post-earnings due to concerns over high capex and AI investments.
Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency
- Bitcoin fell below $70,000 for the first time since November 2024, with a recent drop to around $63,000 before rebounding slightly.
- Crypto sector under pressure due to tech sell-off and ETF outflows.
- CleanSpark reported significant losses linked to falling Bitcoin prices.
Other Notable Stocks
- DAVE: +19% on strong Q4 revenue growth of 63% YoY.
- EHC: +11% with notable EBITDA beat in Q4.
- MSTR: +15% rebound despite Bitcoin-related losses.
- RBLX: +9% with bookings exceeding expectations.
- RDDT: +8% revenue above guidance with strong advertising growth.
- COTY: -10% after withdrawing full-year forecast and disappointing Q3.
- DOCS: -27% due to lower-than-expected revenue growth guidance.
- MOH: -25% with mixed Q4 results and weak EPS guidance.
- STLA: -25% after announcing significant charges and scaling back EV ambitions.
Market Overview
- Major indices showed mixed to negative performance with S&P 500 down about 1.2%, Nasdaq down nearly 1.6%, and Dow Jones down 1.2%.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new all-time highs earlier but faced volatility.
- Technology sector, especially software stocks, under pressure due to AI competition concerns and high capital expenditure plans.
- Volatility index (VIX) rose by 22% to 22.80, indicating increased market uncertainty.
Economic Data
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for February: 57.3 (above consensus 55.0).
- Job openings fell to 6.542 million in December, below expectations.
- Layoffs increased significantly, with Challenger reporting 108,435 layoffs in January (205% increase).
- Jobless claims rose to 231,000, exceeding estimates.
- Consumer credit increased significantly in December by $8.5 billion.
Central Bank News
- Bank of England kept interest rates on hold after a narrow 5-4 vote, signaling possible future cuts if inflation falls sharply.
- European Central Bank maintained key interest rates, reaffirming 2% inflation target despite global challenges.
Sector Highlights
- Energy, Materials, Financials, and Technology sectors showing strength.
- Semiconductor industry projected to reach $1 trillion revenue driven by AI and chip demand.
- Consumer sector mixed with MGM Resorts beating expectations, Coty withdrawing forecast.
- Healthcare mixed with Biogen beating expectations and Molina Healthcare shares falling.
Other Market Notes
- Volatility in precious metals with gold and silver prices declining sharply.
- Natural gas prices stable with some volatility expected due to inventory data.
- European markets attempting a rebound after Wall Street selloff.