Global forex markets are experiencing heightened volatility amid escalating geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties. The recent announcement of a temporary tariff increase to 15% by the U.S. administration has intensified concerns, impacting major currency pairs and risk sentiment worldwide.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) weakened, approaching the 96.8 level, influenced by mixed market sentiment regarding tariffs and inflation expectations. Safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and the euro have seen modest rebounds against the dollar, while commodity-linked currencies face pressure due to global economic concerns.
The EUR/USD pair is trading subdued within a narrow range, currently testing a critical support zone after a 2.8% decline from its January highs. This support area includes the yearly open and recent range lows, making it pivotal for the pair's near-term direction.
Resistance Levels: 1.1828, 1.1847, 1.1917/18, 1.2020 (key)
Support Levels: 1.1746/75 (key), 1.1727, 1.1598, 1.1518
Technical indicators suggest bearish pressure with sellers pushing against the 100-hour moving average. A break below 1.1746 could lead to further declines, potentially targeting the 100-day moving average near 1.1689. However, holding above support may preserve a longer-term bullish outlook.
GBP/USD remains range-bound, trading within a 36-pip range. The pair faces resistance near 1.3539 to 1.3562 and support around 1.3430 to 1.3407. Recent price action shows a short-term downside bias after failing to sustain above the 100-hour moving average.
Market positioning indicates mixed sentiment, with net-long exposure rising but bearish pressures persisting, suggesting potential selling pressure ahead.
The USD/JPY pair has experienced a notable surge, rebounding from its 100-day moving average at 154.99 and surpassing the 61.8% retracement level at 155.59. This rally is driven by comments from Japan's Prime Minister expressing concerns about further interest rate hikes, weakening the yen.
Key support is at 155.59, with resistance near 155.00. The pair's trend remains slightly bearish overall, but short-term momentum favors buyers as long as support holds.
The Australian dollar is showing mixed signals. While recent analysis suggests a slight decline with recommendations to short the pair around 0.70399 to 0.70674, bullish momentum has been building above the 0.70 level. The pair is influenced by slower Australian economic growth and stronger U.S. economic data.
Traders should watch key support and resistance levels closely, as inflation data and Reserve Bank of Australia commentary will be critical in determining the next move.
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals significant shifts in futures positioning:
This complex positioning landscape suggests diverging views on the US dollar and major currencies, with traders navigating uncertainty amid geopolitical and economic developments.
These events are expected to provide further insights into economic resilience and inflation trends, influencing forex market direction.
Forex markets on February 24, 2026, are characterized by cautious trading amid tariff shocks, geopolitical tensions, and mixed economic data. Key currency pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD are navigating critical technical levels and shifting market sentiment. Traders should monitor upcoming economic releases and central bank communications closely to adapt to evolving market conditions.