USB10Y/USD (10-Year US Treasury) Market Analysis & Trading Plan
Date: November 14, 2025
Current Price: 112.541
Market Overview & Latest News Specific to USB10Y/USD
As of today, the 10-Year US Treasury bond price is at 112.541. The market environment shows a mixed short-term sentiment with a longer-term bullish bias. Key points:
- The Trading Zone (TZ) indicator signals a LONG bias overall, suggesting institutional and smart money positioning favors higher prices in the medium term.
- Short-term trading direction is NEUTRAL, reflecting some indecision or consolidation around the current price.
- Order book sentiment is BULLISH, but short-term smart money and 9/13 count indicators are BEARISH, indicating some caution or profit-taking by informed traders.
- Technical indicators show mixed signals:
- Short-term RSI and stochastic are neutral to slightly bullish.
- Moving averages: SMA 200 is at 111.469 (below current price, supporting bullish bias), SMA 50 is at 113.018 (just above current price, acting as resistance).
- Short-term EMAs and SMAs (10, 20, 30, 50) are mostly SHORT, indicating recent downward pressure.
- Pivot levels for today provide clear intraday support and resistance:
Level Price Type R3 (Daily) 113.417 Resistance R2 (Daily) 113.244 Resistance R1 (Daily) 112.979 Resistance S1 (Daily) 112.541 Support (also current price level) S2 (Daily) 112.368 Support S3 (Daily) 112.103 Support - Seasonality is positive for the short term, with aggregated seasonality and day-of-month seasonality both bullish, supporting potential upside in coming days.
Summary: The 10Y US Treasury is currently consolidating near a key support level (S1 daily pivot at 112.541). The longer-term trend remains bullish, but short-term indicators show mixed signals with some bearish smart money activity. The market is at a technical crossroads between support and resistance zones defined by moving averages and pivot points.
Technical Analysis Summary
- Price vs Moving Averages: Current price (112.541) is above the SMA 200 (111.469) but below SMA 50 (113.018), indicating a potential resistance zone overhead.
- Short-term Indicators: EMA and SMA for short periods (10, 20, 30, 50) are mostly bearish, suggesting recent downward momentum.
- RSI (14): Neutral, indicating no strong overbought or oversold condition.
- Stochastic and CCI: Neutral, no clear directional bias.
- ADX and MACD: ADX is short, MACD is short, indicating weak trend strength currently.
- Order Book Sentiment: Bullish, suggesting buying interest at current levels.
Trading Plan for Next 1-3 Days
Primary Scenario: Bullish Continuation
- Entry: Consider initiating long positions near current price (112.541) or on a minor pullback to the S2 daily pivot at 112.368.
- Targets:
- Target 1: R1 daily pivot at 112.979
- Target 2: R2 daily pivot at 113.244
- Target 3: R3 daily pivot at 113.417 (strong resistance)
- Stop Loss: Below S3 daily pivot at 112.103 to limit downside risk.
- Rationale: Positive seasonality, long-term trading zone bullish, and order book bullish sentiment support upside potential. Watch for price to hold above current support (S1) and break above SMA 50 (113.018) for confirmation.
Alternative Scenario: Short-term Pullback or Consolidation
- Entry: If price breaks below S1 (112.541) and S2 (112.368) with volume, consider short positions.
- Targets: S3 daily pivot at 112.103 and potentially lower weekly/monthly supports (111.462 - weekly S2, 112.145 - monthly S1).
- Stop Loss: Above S1 pivot (112.541) or recent swing highs.
- Rationale: Short-term bearish smart money signals and bearish 9/13 count suggest risk of pullback or consolidation before any further upside.
Risk Management
- Position sizing should limit risk to 1-2% of portfolio per trade.
- Use tight stops given mixed short-term signals.
- Monitor intraday price action around pivot levels for confirmation.
Key Levels to Monitor
| Level | Price | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 (Daily) | 113.417 | Strong Resistance |
| Resistance 2 (Daily) | 113.244 | Resistance |
| Resistance 1 (Daily) & SMA 50 | 112.979 / 113.018 | Resistance Zone |
| Current Price & Support 1 (Daily) | 112.541 | Support / Entry Zone |
| Support 2 (Daily) | 112.368 | Support |
| Support 3 (Daily) | 112.103 | Stop Loss Zone |
| SMA 200 | 111.469 | Long-term Support |
Summary
The 10-Year US Treasury bond price at 112.541 is at a critical juncture. The overall medium-term bias is bullish, supported by the Trading Zone indicator and SMA 200 below price. However, short-term technicals and smart money indicators show caution with mixed signals. The price is currently testing support at the daily S1 pivot, which coincides with the current price level, making it a key entry or exit point.
Traders should watch for confirmation of support holding and a break above the SMA 50 and daily resistance pivots for a bullish continuation. Conversely, a break below the daily support pivots with volume could signal a short-term pullback or consolidation phase.
Risk management is essential given the mixed short-term signals, with stops placed below strong support levels.