Deep Discovery & Trading Plan for USB10Y/USD (10Y US Treasury) as of 2025.09.26

Current Price Context

The current price of USB10Y/USD is 112.26. This price is slightly below the 50-day SMA at 112.199 and above the 200-day SMA at 110.686, indicating a mixed medium to long-term trend context.

Technical Analysis Summary

• Trading Zone (Overall Bias): LONG bias on the overall instrument, suggesting a medium to long-term bullish outlook.
• Short-Term Trading Bias: SHORT, indicating near-term downward pressure or correction.
• Moving Averages:
  • EMA(10), SMA(10), EMA(20), SMA(20), EMA(30), SMA(30) are all SHORT, signaling short-term weakness.
  • EMA(50), SMA(50), EMA(100), SMA(100), EMA(200), SMA(200) are LONG, supporting longer-term strength.
• Momentum Indicators: Mixed signals:
  • RSI (14) is NEUTRAL, showing no strong momentum either way.
  • Stochastic, Williams, and Stochastic RSI are NEUTRAL.
  • MACD and Ultimate Oscillator are SHORT, indicating bearish momentum.
  • CCI and Awesome Oscillator are LONG, suggesting some bullish underlying strength.
• Order Book Sentiment: Short-term trader sentiment is BULLISH, but smart money is BEARISH, indicating possible institutional caution.
• Seasonality: Short-term seasonality is BEARISH, including day-of-month and aggregated seasonality.
• Harmonics: Mixed signals with shifted harmonics BEARISH but SMA harmonics BULLISH.

Overall, the technical picture is conflicted with a longer-term bullish bias but short-term bearish pressure and mixed momentum indicators.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

• Daily Resistance: 112.801, 113.263, 113.565
• Daily Support: 112.037, 111.735, 111.273
• Weekly Resistance: 113.778, 114.721, 115.608
• Weekly Support: 111.948, 111.061, 110.118
• Monthly Resistance: 113.728, 114.621, 115.548
• Monthly Support: 111.908, 110.981, 110.088
• Annual Resistance: 113.419, 118.293, 121.481
• Annual Support: 105.357, 102.169, 97.295

Latest Market News Specific to USB10Y/USD

Recent market news highlights a near 4-point rally since July's 110-085 base, stalling ahead of April's 114-10 top. The outlook for the week is cautiously negative with bearish signals confirmed by two consecutive lower daily lows and a loss of almost half a point. Investors are selling futures, indicating some profit-taking or risk-off sentiment.

For Friday, the recommendation is to stay square on the open and sell rallies around 112-19 (yesterday's opening trade) with a stop loss at 113-00 (Wednesday's high). Alternatively, selling below 111-31 (September's bottom) with a stop loss at 112-12 is advised. Targets below 111-31 include 111-20 (last 5-week open) and 110-23 (August's base).

This cautious stance reflects uncertainty amid a stalled rally and mixed technical signals, with traders advised to be vigilant for potential downside moves in the short term.

Summary of Market Sentiment

Despite a longer-term bullish trading zone, short-term indicators and market news suggest a cautious or bearish near-term outlook. The short-term trading bias is down, with smart money bearish and seasonality unfavorable. However, trader sentiment remains bullish, indicating potential for short-term counter-trend rallies.

Trading Plan for Next 1-3 Days

Primary Strategy: Cautious Short-Term Bearish with Long-Term Bullish Awareness

• Entry for Short Positions: Consider initiating short positions on rallies near resistance levels around 112.80 to 113.00, with confirmation of bearish reversal patterns or failure to break higher.
• Stop Loss for Shorts: Above 113.10 to 113.20 to limit risk on false breakouts.
• Targets for Shorts: Initial target at 111.73 (daily support), with extended targets at 111.27 and 110.98 (monthly support levels).
• Entry for Long Positions: Consider long positions only on strong support holds near 111.00-111.30 with bullish reversal signals, given the longer-term bullish bias.
• Stop Loss for Longs: Below 110.90 to protect against breakdowns.
• Targets for Longs: Target 1 at 112.80 (daily resistance), Target 2 at 113.50 (monthly resistance).
• Risk Management: Keep position sizes small due to mixed signals and potential volatility. Use tight stops and monitor order flow and news closely.

Note: Avoid aggressive entries; prefer to wait for clear price action confirmation given the conflicting technical and sentiment signals.