US Market Overview and Related Instruments - September 29, 2025

Market Summary

US equity futures indicate a higher open after a week of modest losses for major averages. The S&P 500 futures are up by 28 points, Nasdaq futures by 132 points, and Dow Jones E-mini futures gained 76 points. This follows a strong rebound on Friday supported by positive income and spending data.

Despite the recent pullback, the overall trend in major indices like Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones 30, and S&P 500 remains upward, with technical analysts viewing current declines as typical corrections in a bullish market.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) short-term indicators are mostly bullish, with some mixed signals on cyclical RSI and seasonality.
• Nasdaq 100 is testing support levels around 24,000, with potential buying opportunities if momentum returns.
• S&P 500 is pulling back from recent highs but remains in an uptrend, with key levels at 6,500 and 6,600 under watch.

Key Economic and Political Developments

President Trump is scheduled to meet with congressional leaders as the government funding deadline approaches, raising concerns about a potential government shutdown. Trump has warned of significant job losses if no agreement is reached.

Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been tempered by stronger-than-expected labor data and inflation concerns. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack highlighted the challenges in monetary policy amid these conditions.

Upcoming economic data releases this week include jobs data (JOLTs), ADP report, and the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which are expected to influence market direction significantly.

Corporate and Sector News

• Microsoft (MSFT): Shares rose 0.2% after President Trump suggested firing its head of global affairs.
• Novo Nordisk (NVO): Downgraded to Underweight by Morgan Stanley.
• Wells Fargo (WFC): Downgraded to Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley.
• Technology Sector: Worst performer, down 0.93%, with notable declines in Tesla (-3.4%), MicroStrategy, and GE Healthcare.
• Energy and Consumer Staples: Slight gains, with energy up 0.27% and consumer staples up 0.11%. Intel surged 4.1%, Biogen and Vertex Pharmaceuticals rose nearly 2% each.

Fixed Income and Bond Market

US Treasury yields have shown mixed signals amid risk aversion. The 10-year Treasury yield slightly decreased to 4.168%, while the 2-year yield slipped to 3.649%. The 5-year and 30-year bonds show bearish short-term technicals but mixed longer-term signals.

Technical analysis for key US bonds as of September 29, 2025:

• 10-Year Treasury (USB10Y_USD): Trading zone is LONG, but short-term trading bias is SHORT with mixed technical indicators.
• 30-Year Treasury (USB30Y_USD): Trading zone LONG, but short-term trading bias is SHORT with bearish seasonality and harmonics.
• 5-Year Treasury (USB05Y_USD): Trading zone LONG, short-term bias SHORT, with bearish technicals on most moving averages.

Currency and Commodity Markets

The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened for the second consecutive session, boosted by a surprising upward revision to Q2 GDP growth at 3.8% annualized. The DXY surpassed its 50-day SMA at 98.02, signaling a potential uptrend, though it is currently in a consolidation phase with resistance near 100-100.50.

Gold prices remain bullish, breaking above $3,500 and targeting $3,900 to $4,000, supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. Silver also shows strong momentum, aiming for $48-$50 despite short-term overbought conditions.

Oil prices increased due to geopolitical factors affecting Russian energy trade, while grain prices declined amid expectations of increased acreage.

Volatility and Market Sentiment

The VIX index surged nearly 16% recently, reflecting heightened investor anxiety over tariffs and inflation data. It is attempting to rebound above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, with expectations of consolidation between 23.6% and 38.2% levels as markets await key US macroeconomic data.

Market participants remain cautious due to tariff concerns and the potential for a recession, with Goldman Sachs and Moody's forecasting significant economic slowdowns and job losses if tariffs escalate.

Cryptocurrency and Digital Assets

Cryptocurrency markets weakened, with Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing slight declines. XRP dropped notably due to ongoing regulatory uncertainty related to the SEC vs. Ripple case. XRP price is currently around $2.74, with key support at $2.7 and resistance at $2.8 to $3.2.

Several XRP-spot ETFs are awaiting SEC decisions, with deadlines between October 18 and November 14. While there is optimism about ETF approvals boosting XRP, skepticism remains about BlackRock filing an iShares XRP Trust, as they may prioritize Bitcoin and Ethereum products.