last updated: 11/14/2025 9:20:53 AM NY time

European Market Overview - November 14, 2025

Market Performance and Sentiment

European markets experienced a notable decline on November 14, 2025, influenced primarily by disappointing expectations regarding U.S. interest rate cuts. The Federal Open Market Committee's comments dampened hopes for December rate reductions, causing a ripple effect across global markets. The most significant declines were seen in Poland and Germany, with the DAX40 index dropping over 1%. Other major indices such as Spain's SPA35, Italy's ITA40, and the UK's FTSE 100 fell by approximately 0.7%, while France's CAC40 declined by about 0.4%. Switzerland showed a minor positive trend during the session.

Sector-wise, technology and pharmaceutical stocks within the DAX index faced the largest losses, followed by retailers, services, and distributors. Industrial companies bucked the trend with slight gains. Overall, the market remains under pressure amid global economic uncertainties.

Macroeconomic Data

Spain reported higher-than-expected inflation, with a monthly increase of 0.7%, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.1%. The European Union's GDP growth for Q3 2025 was released, showing a quarterly increase of 0.2%, aligning with forecasts and slightly improving from the previous quarter's 0.1%. Year-on-year growth stood at 1.4%, marginally above the expected 1.3%. Employment data indicated a modest rise in both the Eurozone and the broader EU.

Outside Europe, China's industrial performance fell short of expectations, adding to global growth concerns.

Currency and Commodity Markets

In currency markets, the Euro (EUR/USD) showed slight recovery but faced downward pressure following the GDP data release. The Swiss Franc gained as a preferred risk-off currency amid volatility. The Japanese Yen weakened, allowing USD/JPY and GBP/JPY pairs to rise. Commodity-linked currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollars strengthened, reflecting rising commodity prices.

Gold and silver prices increased due to weaker U.S. economic data and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Gold retreated slightly after reaching a three-week high but remains supported by safe-haven demand. Oil prices remained relatively stable despite concerns over global oversupply and upcoming sanctions on Russian oil.

Key Company News

• Siemens Energy: Shares rose by 8% driven by positive outlooks in wind turbine and data center sectors.
• Bechtle: The German IT company exceeded quarterly expectations, boosting its valuation by over 10%.
• Allianz: Reported strong results and raised its year-end forecast, with shares up over 1%.
• Richemont: Fashion company sales increased by 14% quarterly, with shares rising 6%.
• Infineon Technologies: Despite slightly missing profit estimates, shares rose on optimistic revenue and margin forecasts.
• Brenntag: Expects full-year EBITA at the lower end of guidance amid strategic business model review.

Technical Analysis

The DAX index faces resistance near the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level of its last upward wave. Support is critical at 23,800 points; a breach could lead to further declines toward 23,500-23,300. The current scenario suggests consolidation within the 24,400-23,800 range while awaiting a new price impulse.

Market Outlook

The week is expected to remain relatively quiet in terms of macroeconomic events until the U.S. inflation data release later in the week, which could significantly influence market direction. Investors are advised to monitor central bank communications, especially from the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve, for policy signals.

Summary of Key Instruments' Trading Bias (as of November 14, 2025)

• ETWO (Energy Sector Instrument): Strong bullish technical indicators with a current price around 3.3, supported by multiple moving averages and momentum indicators.
• EU (Euro Currency): Mixed signals with neutral short-term trading bias but bullish trader sentiment and cyclical RSI; some bearish seasonality factors present.
• EU50_EUR (Euro Stoxx 50 Index): Overall long bias with bullish trader sentiment and technical indicators.
• EUR_NZD: Predominantly bullish short-term indicators, though some mixed signals in harmonics and exposure ratios.
• EUR_PLN: Neutral to bullish short-term trading bias with mixed technical signals.

Conclusion

European markets are navigating a challenging environment marked by cautious investor sentiment due to global economic uncertainties and U.S. monetary policy outlook. While some sectors and companies show resilience and positive earnings, broader market indices face downward pressure. Technical analysis suggests consolidation phases with critical support levels to watch. Currency and commodity markets reflect risk-off sentiment with safe-haven demand and commodity price influences.