```html

SPX500/USD (S&P 500) Deep Market Discovery & Trading Plan

Current Price: 6735.5 (as of 2025-11-14)

Latest Market News Specific to SPX500/USD

  • Short term aggregated seasonality and harmonics for SPX500/USD are bullish, indicating positive momentum in the near term.
  • Smart money indicators and short term L/S exposure ratios are bullish, suggesting institutional buying interest.
  • Short term order book sentiment is bullish, supporting upward price pressure.
  • However, the Trading Zone (TZ) for SPXC (S&P 500 related ETF) is currently SHORT, indicating some mixed signals at the ETF level.
  • Short term cyclical RSI is neutral, implying no immediate overbought or oversold extremes.
  • Seasonality for mid-November is bullish, consistent with typical year-end rally patterns.

Technical & Elliott Wave Analysis

The SPX500 is currently at 6735.5, near the final stages of a Wave 5 Elliott impulse on the monthly chart:

  • Wave 5 appears to be completing near the 6800-7000 resistance zone, close to the current price.
  • Bearish RSI divergence is present on weekly/monthly timeframes, with RSI around 65-70, signaling weakening momentum despite new highs.
  • Candlestick patterns show smaller bullish candles and potential topping formations, indicating possible exhaustion.
  • Key Fibonacci resistance lies at 6800-6850 (2.618 extension), with major support at 6200 (38.2% retracement) and 5800 (50% retracement).
  • Seasonality favors bulls into year-end, but profit-taking and volatility spikes are common in mid-November.

Trading Plan for Next 1-3 Days

Primary Scenario (70% Probability) - Corrective Pullback

  • Entry: Initiate short positions on failure to break above 6800 or break below 6650 support with volume confirmation.
  • Stop Loss: Above 6850 to protect against false breakdowns.
  • Targets:
    • Target 1: 6200 (initial support zone)
    • Target 2: 5800 (major support, 50% Fibonacci retracement)
  • Risk/Reward: Minimum 1:3, scale out at each target level.
  • Notes: Watch for reversal candlestick patterns and RSI confirmation below 50 to validate downside momentum.

Alternative Scenario (30% Probability) - Continuation Higher

  • Entry: Long on a decisive break above 6800 with strong volume and RSI breaking above 65.
  • Stop Loss: Below 6700 to limit downside risk.
  • Targets: 7000-7100 psychological and Fibonacci extension levels.
  • Confirmation: Sustained bullish momentum and positive smart money flow.

Risk Management

  • Limit position size to 2% of portfolio risk per trade.
  • Use trailing stops after first target to protect profits.
  • Monitor for news or macro events that could impact volatility.
  • Be prepared to adjust stops or exit if price action invalidates the scenario.

Summary

SPX500 at 6735.5 is at a critical juncture near the completion of a major Elliott Wave 5 impulse. Technical indicators and seasonality suggest a high probability of a corrective pullback in the short term, with key support levels at 6200 and 5800. However, a breakout above 6800 with strong volume could extend the rally toward 7000+. Traders should adopt a cautious approach with tight risk controls, favoring short positions on signs of reversal but ready to pivot bullish if momentum confirms continuation.

``` This analysis is based on the latest technical data, Elliott Wave counts, RSI and candlestick patterns, seasonality, and market sentiment indicators specifically for SPX500/USD at the current price of 6735.5. The trading plan balances a higher probability bearish correction scenario with an alternative bullish breakout scenario, emphasizing disciplined risk management and responsiveness to price action signals 【4:0†HEDGTRADE/DAILY/ELLIOTTWAVE】.
Powered by Hedgtrade | www.hedgtrade.com