US30/USD (Dow Jones Industrial Average) Deep Discovery & Trading Plan

Market Overview & Technical Context

The US30/USD is currently trading at 46,319.3, near all-time highs. The instrument is in the final stages of a 5-wave Elliott Wave impulse pattern that started from the 2023 lows near 32,000. Wave 5 appears to be completing, signaling a potential major corrective phase ahead.

• Wave 1: 32,000 to ~35,500 (Early 2023)
• Wave 2: Correction to ~33,000 (Mid 2023)
• Wave 3: Extended move to ~41,500 (Late 2023 - Early 2024)
• Wave 4: Complex correction to ~38,500 (Mid 2024)
• Wave 5: Final push to current levels ~46,319

Technical indicators show mixed signals:

• The Trading Zone (TZ) is currently SHORT, indicating an overall short bias.
• Short-term trading bias is LONG, reflecting daily momentum.
• Simple Moving Averages (SMA 50 and SMA 200) are well below current price (SMA 50 ~45,152; SMA 200 ~43,235), confirming a strong uptrend.
• Short-term trader sentiment and smart money indicators are BULLISH, but order book sentiment is NEUTRAL.
• RSI is neutral around 55-60, showing no extreme overbought or oversold conditions currently.
• Some upper wicks on recent candles suggest selling pressure at highs.

Key Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent correction zone indicate support around 44,500 (23.6%), 43,300 (38.2%), and 42,400 (50%).

Latest Market News Specific to US30/USD

As of late September 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is experiencing typical end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing effects, with some profit-taking observed. Market participants are cautious ahead of October, historically a volatile month for equities. The Q4 seasonality remains generally bullish, but after potential October corrections.

There is no major new macroeconomic event or geopolitical shock directly impacting the Dow at this moment. However, traders are closely watching earnings reports from key industrial and financial sector companies that compose the index, which could influence short-term price action.

Sentiment is mixed: institutional smart money remains bullish on the short term, but the overall trading zone bias is short, reflecting caution among larger players.

Technical Summary

• Trading Zone (TZ): SHORT (primary bias)
• Short-term daily bias: LONG
• RSI: Neutral (55-60), no divergence
• Moving Averages: SMA 50 and SMA 200 well below price, confirming uptrend
• Support Levels: 45,800 (psychological), 44,500 (23.6% Fib), 43,300 (38.2% Fib), 42,400 (50% Fib)
• Resistance Levels: 46,500 (near-term), 47,000 - 48,000 (Wave 5 completion zone)
• Pivot Points (Daily): R1: 46,546.6, R2: 47,076.4, R3: 47,395.8; S1: 45,697.4, S2: 45,378, S3: 44,848.2

Trading Plan for Next 1-3 Days

Primary Scenario (70% Probability): Bearish Correction Expected

• Entry: Initiate short positions on price rejection near 46,500 or break below 46,000 with confirmation.
• Targets:
  • Target 1: 44,500 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement)
  • Target 2: 43,300 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement)
  • Target 3: 42,400 (50% Fibonacci retracement)
• Stop Loss: Above 46,800 to protect against false breakdowns.
• Rationale: Completion of Wave 5 suggests a corrective ABC pattern is imminent. RSI and candlestick patterns show some selling pressure at highs.

Alternative Scenario (30% Probability): Short-term Pullback then Continuation

• Entry: Consider long positions on pullbacks to 45,500-45,800 with signs of support holding.
• Targets: 47,000 - 48,000 (Wave 5 completion zone)
• Stop Loss: Below 45,000 to limit downside risk.
• Rationale: Short-term daily bias is bullish, and smart money indicators remain positive. A pullback could offer a buying opportunity before a final push higher.

Risk Management

• Limit position size to a maximum of 2% portfolio risk per trade.
• Use trailing stops after reaching first target to protect profits.
• Monitor volume and order book for confirmation of moves.
• Be prepared for increased volatility entering October.