Forex Market Update - September 29, 2025

Overview of Current Forex Market Conditions

The forex market as of September 29, 2025, is characterized by cautious trading amid mixed economic data and central bank signals. The U.S. Dollar (USD) shows resilience following a strong GDP growth report, while traders await key inflation and jobs data that could influence Federal Reserve policy. Meanwhile, geopolitical factors such as new U.S. tariffs are impacting market sentiment.

Major Currency Pairs Analysis

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair has experienced volatility, recently trading around 1.08. The euro showed initial strength but retraced gains, reflecting trader hesitation. Key technical levels include support near 1.0760-1.0775 and resistance around 1.0857. Inflation data from the Eurozone, which came in slightly below expectations, has pressured the euro. A break below support could lead to declines toward 1.0630-1.0650, while a bounce may test resistance at 1.18.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is attempting to hold above the 150.00 level, supported by rising U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker-than-expected retail sales report from Japan. The pair may target recent highs near 151.00 if it sustains above 150.00. However, uncertainty remains due to the Bank of Japan's dovish stance and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, suggesting possible sideways trading in the near term.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar remains relatively stable near 0.6250 but has struggled to gain momentum. The pair is expected to trade within a range of 0.62 to 0.64, with resistance at 0.6550 and potential targets at 0.66 and 0.67 if broken. Recent weakness against the USD reflects concerns over commodity demand and economic data.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is currently stagnant around 1.29, awaiting new catalysts. Technical resistance lies at 1.2935-1.2950, with potential to test 1.3050-1.3070 if broken. The pair is pressured by disappointing UK mortgage lending data and cautious market sentiment.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD is testing support near 1.4330-1.4350 after a weak Canadian Manufacturing PMI indicating contraction. A break below support could see the pair move toward 1.4180-1.4200, while resistance is noted at 1.4400 and 1.4485-1.4500.

Additional Currency Pairs and Technical Insights

Here are some notable levels and signals for other pairs as of today:

• USD/PLN: Last close at 3.64345, mixed technical signals with short-term momentum long but longer-term moving averages short.
• USD/TRY: Last close at 41.58, technicals mostly long, indicating strength.
• USD/SEK: Last close at 9.41715, technicals mixed but leaning towards buy signals.
• USD/CHF: Last close at 0.79827, technicals show a buy bias in the short term.
• USD/MXN: Last close at 18.33685, technicals mostly short, indicating bearish momentum.
• USD/SGD: Last close at 1.29073, technicals mostly long, suggesting strength.

Market Drivers and Outlook

The U.S. Dollar's recent rally is driven by a stronger-than-expected GDP growth rate of 3.8%, surpassing forecasts. This has limited expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the near term. However, the market is closely watching upcoming inflation data, including the PCE Price Index, and the jobs report, which will be critical in shaping the dollar's trajectory.

In Japan, softer inflation and wage data have reduced the likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike in October, impacting USD/JPY dynamics. Additionally, new U.S. tariffs on various goods have shifted market focus and could influence currency flows.

Overall, the forex market remains cautious with mixed signals from economic data and central banks. Traders are advised to monitor key support and resistance levels and upcoming economic releases for clearer directional cues.