NAS100/USD Market Deep Discovery & Trading Plan

1. Technical Analysis Overview

Elliott Wave Structure

The NAS100 has completed a clear 5-wave impulse from early 2023 lows (~11,000) to recent highs near 24,000. The current price of 24,542.4 is slightly above the recent peak, indicating the early stage of a corrective ABC pattern after Wave 5 completion.

• Wave 1: 11,000 to ~14,500 (Jan-Apr 2023)
• Wave 2: Correction to ~14,000 (Apr-May 2023)
• Wave 3: Extended rally to ~20,500 (May 2023-Feb 2024)
• Wave 4: Sharp correction to ~17,500 (Feb-Apr 2024)
• Wave 5: Final push to ~24,000 (Apr 2024-Sep 2025)

Signs of exhaustion include bearish engulfing candlestick patterns and RSI divergence at overbought levels (~70), suggesting a corrective phase is likely underway.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

• 23.6% retracement: 20,932
• 38.2% retracement: 19,034
• 50.0% retracement: 17,500
• 61.8% retracement: 15,966

RSI & Momentum

• RSI near 70 indicates overbought conditions with bearish divergence (price making higher highs, RSI lower highs)
• Momentum weakening with smaller candle bodies and longer wicks

Seasonality

• Late September to October is historically volatile and weak for tech stocks (the "September effect")
• Q4 often starts with profit-taking but may end with a year-end rally ("Santa Rally")

2. Latest Market News Specific to NAS100

As of today, the NAS100 is experiencing mixed short-term signals:

• Short-term trading bias is Neutral
• Short-term 9/13 count is Bullish, but smart money sentiment is Bearish
• Short-term harmonics indicate a Bearish bias
• Short-term seasonality is Bullish, supporting potential upside in the near term
• Order book and VWAP are neutral, suggesting indecision among traders

Overall, the market shows a cautious stance with mixed signals, reflecting uncertainty at current resistance levels around 24,500-24,600.

3. Key Technical Levels to Watch

Resistance Levels	Support Levels
24,600 - 24,800 (immediate resistance zone)	24,000 (psychological support)
25,000 (psychological & weekly close level)	23,000 (previous support)
26,000 - 27,000 (next major Fibonacci extension)	20,932 (23.6% Fib retracement)

4. Trading Plan for Next 1-3 Days

Primary Scenario: Bearish Correction (70% Probability)

• Entry: Initiate short positions if price fails to break and hold above 24,600-24,650 with bearish reversal confirmation (e.g., bearish engulfing candle)
• Targets:
  • Target 1: 24,000 (psychological support)
  • Target 2: 23,000 (previous support zone)
• Stop Loss: Above 24,800 to limit risk on false breakouts
• Risk/Reward: Approximately 1:2 to 1:3 depending on entry

Alternative Scenario: Bullish Breakout (30% Probability)

• Entry: Go long on a confirmed break above 24,650-24,700 with volume support
• Targets:
  • Target 1: 25,000 (psychological and weekly close level)
  • Target 2: 26,000-27,000 (Fibonacci extension zone)
• Stop Loss: Below 24,200 to protect against false breakouts

Risk Management

• Limit position size to 1-2% of portfolio risk per trade
• Consider scaling into positions rather than full size at once
• Monitor daily closes and volume for confirmation of breakout or rejection
• Be prepared for increased volatility due to seasonal factors and potential profit-taking

5. Summary & Conclusion

The NAS100 at 24,542.4 is at a critical juncture after completing a major 5-wave impulse rally. Technical indicators and candlestick patterns suggest a high probability of a corrective pullback in the short term, supported by bearish RSI divergence and seasonal weakness in late September-October.

However, mixed short-term market sentiment and bullish seasonality signals leave room for a breakout if buyers regain control above 24,650. Traders should adopt a cautious approach, favoring short positions on failure to break resistance, while remaining alert for a bullish breakout scenario.

Risk management is paramount given the potential for volatility and the proximity to key support and resistance levels.