Deep Discovery & Market Analysis for NAS100/USD (NASDAQ) as of December 12, 2025
Current Price Context
The NAS100/USD is currently trading at 25,189.7. This price is slightly below recent highs near 25,500-25,700, indicating a phase of consolidation or potential exhaustion in the current uptrend.
Elliott Wave & Technical Structure
- The index is in the final stages of a Wave 5 impulse, following a clear 5-wave structure from early 2023.
- Wave 1 started around 13,000, Wave 3 extended to ~22,000, Wave 4 corrected sharply to ~18,000, and Wave 5 is currently progressing near 25,200.
- Technical indicators show the RSI around 50-55 on the daily, indicating neutral momentum but with signs of weakening compared to previous highs.
- There is a lack of strong RSI confirmation on recent highs, suggesting potential momentum exhaustion.
- Fibonacci resistance clusters lie around 26,000-26,500, with key support levels at 25,000 (minor) and 24,000 (major).
Technical Indicator Summary (as of 12/12/2025)
- Short-term trading bias: Long (daily cycle)
- Order book sentiment: Bullish
- 9/13 count signal: Sell (indicating caution)
- Moving averages (EMA & SMA 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 200): All Long
- VWAP and Hull indicators show mixed signals (VWAP neutral, Hull short)
- Smart Money flow: Bearish short term
- Seasonality: Aggregated short-term seasonality is bullish, but day-of-month seasonality is bearish
Latest Market News Specific to NAS100/USD
Recent market news and sentiment around NAS100/USD indicate:
- Institutional investors are showing signs of profit-taking near all-time highs.
- Year-end window dressing may provide temporary support but volume is thinning, increasing risk of false breakouts.
- Tech sector earnings reports are mixed, contributing to cautious sentiment.
- Macro factors such as interest rate expectations and geopolitical tensions are causing intermittent volatility.
Key Levels to Watch
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 26,322.5 (Daily R3) | 25,015.1 (Daily S3) |
| 26,079 (Daily R2) | 25,207.4 (Daily S2) |
| 25,886.7 (Daily R1) | 25,450.9 (Daily S1) |
| 26,000 - 26,500 (Psychological & Fibonacci Cluster) | 24,000 (Major Support) |
Trading Plan for Next 1-3 Days
Primary (Bullish) Scenario
- Entry: Consider long positions on pullbacks to the 24,500 - 24,700 zone, or on a confirmed break above 25,500 with strong volume.
- Targets: First target at 25,800, second target at 26,500.
- Stop Loss: Place below 24,000 to protect against downside risk.
- Confirmation: Volume increase on breakout and sustained price above 25,500.
Alternative (Bearish) Scenario
- Entry: Initiate short positions on failure to hold 24,500 or on a break below 24,000 with confirmation.
- Targets: 23,500 initially, then 22,000 if momentum accelerates.
- Stop Loss: Above 24,500 to limit losses on false breakdowns.
- Confirmation: RSI divergence and volume increase on decline.
Risk Management
- Limit position size to a maximum of 2% portfolio risk per trade.
- Be cautious of thin holiday trading volumes which can cause false signals.
- Consider scaling out partial profits at key target levels.
- Monitor broader market and tech sector news for sudden shifts in sentiment.
Summary & Final Thoughts
NAS100/USD is at a critical juncture near recent highs with mixed technical signals. While the short-term bias remains bullish, signs of momentum exhaustion and bearish divergences suggest caution. The index is likely in the final stages of a Wave 5 Elliott impulse, with a significant correction probable in the medium term. For the next 1-3 days, traders should focus on clear confirmation signals around the 24,500-25,500 range before committing to new positions. Risk management is paramount given the year-end seasonality and potential for volatility spikes.
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