Technical & Elliott Wave Analysis

The NAS100 is currently near 25,011.6, positioned in the final stages of a strong Elliott Wave 5 rally that started from the 2022 lows (~10,500). The wave count and technical indicators reveal:

• Wave Structure: Wave 5 is approaching completion, with resistance expected near 26,000-26,500.
• RSI: The weekly RSI is around 70, indicating overbought conditions with waning momentum. Bearish divergence is forming as price makes new highs but RSI fails to confirm, signaling potential exhaustion.
• Candlestick Patterns: Recent candles show smaller bodies and upper wicks, suggesting momentum exhaustion and possible topping.
• Fibonacci Levels: Key support at 23,500 (38.2% retracement) and 22,000 (50% retracement). Resistance cluster at 26,000-26,500 aligns with Fibonacci extensions.

Latest Market News Specific to NAS100/USD

As of today, the NASDAQ-100 index is experiencing mixed signals:

• Short-term trader sentiment and order book data are bullish, supporting a near-term upward bias.
• Smart money indicators show bearish tendencies, suggesting institutional caution.
• Seasonality is bullish for mid-November, with typical year-end strength expected, but profit-taking before Thanksgiving is common.
• Volume and momentum indicators hint at a potential pause or correction after the extended rally.

Summary of Technical Sentiment

Indicator	Status
Short-term Trading Bias	Long
Order Book Sentiment	Bullish
Smart Money	Bearish
RSI (Short-term)	Neutral
RSI (Weekly)	Overbought
VWAP	Neutral
Seasonality (Mid-November)	Bullish but cautious

Trading Plan for Next 1-3 Days

Bullish Scenario (Approx. 30% Probability)

• Entry: Initiate long positions on a confirmed break above 25,200 with strong volume.
• Targets: 25,800 first, then 26,500 (Wave 5 completion zone).
• Stop Loss: Tight stop below 24,700 to limit downside risk.
• Risk Management: Keep position size to max 2% portfolio risk; trail stops after first target.

Bearish Scenario (Approx. 70% Probability)

• Entry: Short positions triggered by a break below 24,800 or rejection near 25,200-25,300 resistance zone.
• Targets: 24,000 initially, then 23,000, and potentially 22,300 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement).
• Stop Loss: Above 25,400 to protect against false breakdowns.
• Risk Management: Scale out profits at targets; monitor RSI for oversold signals before adding to shorts.

Key Levels to Monitor

Resistance	Support
25,200 - 25,300	24,800
25,800	24,000
26,000 - 26,500	23,000 - 22,300