Deep Discovery & Trading Plan for NAS100/USD (NASDAQ) as of 2025.12.11
Current Price: 25,660.8 USD
Latest Market News Specific to NAS100/USD
- Short term trader sentiment and order book remain bullish, indicating strong buying interest around current levels.
- Short term trading bias and 9/13 count are long, supporting upward momentum.
- Short term VWAP is neutral, suggesting price is balanced around average traded price.
- Smart money indicators are bullish, implying institutional buying pressure.
- Short term cyclical RSI is neutral, indicating no extreme momentum currently.
- Day of month seasonality is bearish, but aggregated seasonality remains bullish, reflecting typical December mixed but overall positive tech stock behavior.
- Short term harmonics show mixed signals: shifted harmonics are bearish while SMA harmonics are bullish.
- Long/Short exposure ratio is bullish, confirming dominant long positioning among traders.
Summary: Overall, the market sentiment and technical indicators for NAS100/USD are cautiously bullish with some mixed short-term seasonality and harmonic signals. Institutional and retail traders show confidence near current price levels.
Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave & Price Structure
The NAS100 is currently in the final stages of a major Wave 5 impulse, following a clear 5-wave structure from the 2022 lows (~10,500) to the current highs:
- Wave 1: ~10,500 to ~16,500
- Wave 2: Correction to ~14,500
- Wave 3: Extended rally to ~22,000
- Wave 4: Correction to ~17,000
- Wave 5: In progress, targeting 26,000-26,500 zone
Price at 25,660.8 is approaching key resistance near 26,000-26,500, a cluster of psychological and Fibonacci levels (1.618 extension of Wave 1-3 from Wave 4 low).
RSI & Momentum
- RSI is currently around 65-70, approaching overbought territory but not yet extreme.
- Potential bearish divergence is forming: price making higher highs while RSI fails to confirm, signaling possible momentum exhaustion.
- Historical precedents show similar RSI levels preceded corrections in 2021 and early 2022.
Candlestick Patterns
- Recent candles show strong bullish momentum but with decreasing body sizes, indicating slowing momentum.
- Potential doji or spinning top formations near resistance suggest indecision and possible reversal.
Fibonacci Levels
| Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | 26,000 | Psychological & key resistance |
| Resistance 2 | 26,500 | 1.618 Fibonacci extension |
| Support 1 | 25,000-25,200 | Minor support zone |
| Support 2 | 24,000 | 0.236 retracement |
| Support 3 | 23,000 | Previous resistance turned support |
Seasonality
- December typically shows mixed performance with profit-taking but also the "Santa Rally" effect supporting tech stocks.
- Year-end window dressing by fund managers may provide temporary support.
- Q1 2026 often sees rotation and corrections in tech-heavy indices.
Trading Plan for Next 1-3 Days
Bullish Scenario (Approx. 30% Probability)
- Entry: On a confirmed break and close above 26,000 with strong volume.
- Targets: 26,500 first, then 27,000-27,200 (Wave 5 completion zone).
- Stop Loss: Below 25,200 to limit downside risk.
- Risk Management: Keep position size to max 2% portfolio risk.
Bearish Scenario (Approx. 70% Probability)
- Entry: Short on rejection from 26,000 resistance or break below 25,200 with volume confirmation.
- Targets: 23,000 initial support, then 20,000 major support, and possibly 18,000 (Wave 4 territory).
- Stop Loss: Above 26,500 to protect against false breakdowns.
- Risk Management: Position sizing max 2% portfolio risk, consider scaling out at each target.
Given the proximity to major resistance and signs of momentum exhaustion, the higher probability scenario favors a near-term correction. However, a breakout with volume could extend the rally briefly. Monitor daily and weekly charts closely for reversal candlestick patterns and RSI divergence confirmation.
Summary
NAS100/USD at 25,660.8 is in the final stages of a strong Wave 5 rally, approaching critical resistance at 26,000-26,500. Technical indicators show healthy but waning momentum with potential bearish divergence on RSI and indecision candlesticks. Market sentiment remains cautiously bullish with institutional support, but short-term seasonality and harmonics suggest mixed signals. The trading plan prioritizes capital preservation with a bearish bias for a correction while remaining open to a breakout scenario. Risk management is essential given the expected volatility near all-time highs.
Powered by Hedgtrade | www.hedgtrade.com