Bitcoin Price Forecast: Another 50% Crash Likely Despite Jane Street Chatter

Author: Yashu Gola

Published: February 26, 2026

Key Points

• Bitcoin's three-day chart is nearing a "death cross," a bearish signal that previously indicated a 50% decline in 2022.
• Despite a rally to $70,000, Bitcoin's price quickly faded, indicating potential bearish sentiment.
• Market dynamics and short-term holder data suggest caution for Bitcoin bulls.

Death Cross Warning

The three-day chart for Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of forming a "death cross," which occurs when the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crosses below the 200-period EMA. This technical indicator is traditionally viewed as a bearish signal. In 2022, a similar signal preceded a significant decline in Bitcoin's price, leading to a drop of approximately 50%.

Potential Price Decline

If the death cross materializes, it could increase the likelihood of an extended selloff in 2026. The formation of a bear pennant, a classic bearish continuation pattern, further supports the potential for a repeat of the 2022 bear market. Analysts suggest that Bitcoin could fall to the $30,000–$35,000 range by the end of 2026 if historical patterns repeat.

Market Sentiment and Jane Street Chatter

Recent discussions surrounding Nvidia's earnings and Jane Street, a quantitative investment firm, have influenced market sentiment. However, the positive reaction to Nvidia's earnings was short-lived, with US futures declining the following day. Bitcoin's price surged to $70,000 but quickly retreated, raising concerns about a potential bear trap where traders misinterpret a temporary price spike as a trend reversal.

Short-Term Holder Data

Data from CryptoQuant indicates that short-term holders have been sending Bitcoin to exchanges at a loss since January 26, suggesting a lack of confidence among recent buyers. The profit/loss metric for short-term holders has remained net negative, indicating that each price increase may provide an opportunity for stressed holders to exit rather than signaling a genuine market recovery.

Conclusion

Given the combination of bearish technical signals and negative sentiment among short-term holders, caution is advised for Bitcoin investors. A shift in market dynamics is necessary for bulls to argue that the market has transitioned from panic selling to real demand.

About the Author

Yashu Gola is a crypto journalist and analyst with expertise in digital assets, blockchain, and macroeconomics. He provides in-depth market analysis, technical chart patterns, and insights on global economic impacts, bridging traditional finance and crypto.