Summary of First Light News – The Uncertain Ceasefire

Author: Aaron Hill

Published: April 09, 2026

Market Overview

The article discusses the recent developments in the financial markets, particularly influenced by a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. This truce has led to a risk-on sentiment in the markets, with both Brent and WTI crude oil prices falling below $100 per barrel. Major equity indices, including the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100, experienced significant gains, with the Dow rising over 1,300 points (2.9%) to close at 47,913.

US Dollar and Treasury Yields

The US dollar weakened by 0.5% as safe-haven positions were unwound, although it remains up nearly 1.0% year-to-date. The article notes a complex situation in the fixed-income market, where US Treasury yields initially dropped but ended the day largely unchanged.

Ceasefire Dynamics

Despite the ceasefire, tensions remain high, particularly with Israel continuing military actions in Lebanon, which Iran has condemned as a violation of the truce. US Vice President JD Vance is set to lead talks with Iran in Pakistan, emphasizing that any failure in negotiations due to Israeli actions would be Israel's responsibility.

The Federal Reserve's Position

The article highlights the Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes, indicating a decision to maintain the target interest rate at 3.50-3.75%. The Fed has raised its inflation outlook due to energy price shocks from the ongoing conflict, while also facing a debate on whether to tighten rates or cut them in response to economic growth concerns.

Upcoming Economic Data

Attention is drawn to the upcoming US February PCE price index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. The headline PCE is expected to remain at 2.8%, while the core measure may slightly decrease to 3.0%. This data is crucial as it will provide insights into inflation trends before the Middle East conflict escalated.

Conclusion

The article concludes that the PCE data will be pivotal in shaping market expectations regarding inflation and interest rates, especially in light of the geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices. A softer inflation print could bolster rate cut expectations, while a stronger number might temper those expectations and support the dollar.

Source: FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill