Market Weekly Outlook - Markets Brace for US-Iran Talks Amid Post-Ceasefire Surge
By Zain Vawda | 10 April 2026
Overview
The recent announcement of a tentative ceasefire between the US and Iran has led to a significant shift in market sentiment, characterized by the "unwinding of the fear trade." This has resulted in a strong recovery in US equities, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both experiencing their longest winning streaks since late 2025.
Market Performance
Following the ceasefire news, the S&P 500 has gained 7.6% over seven consecutive trading sessions, while the Nasdaq Composite has mirrored this performance. Historical data suggests that such momentum typically continues, with the S&P 500 showing positive returns in 8 out of 9 similar instances in the past.
Despite rising US inflation, which hit a two-year high of 3.3%, the focus remains on geopolitical developments rather than economic data.
Geopolitical Impact
The ceasefire has notably impacted oil prices, with Brent crude dropping nearly 15% mid-week as fears of supply disruptions eased. Gold prices also fell as the war premium diminished, although they remain supported by a weaker US dollar.
As the US and Iran prepare for talks in Pakistan, market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with potential implications for risk appetite in the upcoming week.
Central Bank Focus
The upcoming week will see significant central bank activity, particularly from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBNZ's commentary is crucial for the New Zealand dollar, while Australia's employment data will influence the RBA's decisions on interest rates.
In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) is navigating the challenges of potential rate hikes amidst a sluggish growth outlook, while the US market remains focused on geopolitical developments rather than economic data releases.
Technical Analysis
The Nasdaq 100 is showing signs of a bullish reversal, having broken above a descending trendline. A daily close above the 100-day Simple Moving Average could signal further upside potential, while traders should remain cautious of potential pullbacks.