Morning Market Check - March 18, 2026

Key Highlights

This morning marks a busy start to the day with increased volatility in the markets.

Energy Commodities Surge

The ongoing US-Iran-Israel conflict has escalated, particularly affecting energy markets. Following targeted attacks on Iranian gas infrastructures, including the South Pars Gas Fields, WTI and other energy commodities have seen a significant bounce. The geopolitical tensions are expected to impact global energy supply, particularly for European and Asian nations reliant on these resources.

WTI Oil Analysis

WTI is currently forming a potential trading range, with recent highs around $99. Key resistance levels are noted at $99.20 and $100, while support levels are identified between $93.00 and $95. The market is reacting to the fundamentals of wartime unpredictability, overshadowing technical analysis.

US PPI Data

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) has risen by 0.7% month-over-month, marking the largest increase since July 2025. This rise is attributed to the ongoing conflict, which has added a significant premium to crude prices. The implications of this data could hinder potential US rate cuts in 2026, with further insights expected during the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Bank of Canada Holds Rates

The Bank of Canada has decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.25% for the third consecutive meeting. The central bank is monitoring the economic risks associated with the Middle East conflict, which could influence future rate decisions. The Canadian dollar remains strong, supported by rising oil prices.

Market Outlook

As the FOMC meeting approaches, market participants are advised to remain cautious. The current geopolitical climate and economic data releases are likely to influence trading strategies significantly.

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