Crude Oil Futures Analysis - Summary
Published: January 09, 2026
Author: James Hyerczyk
Key Highlights
- Light crude oil futures are poised for a breakout above the 50-day moving average, targeting a potential rally to $62.50 resistance.
- Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Iran and Venezuela, are raising concerns about crude oil production disruptions.
- The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is also contributing to supply concerns in the oil market.
Market Analysis
Light crude oil futures are currently trading at $58.29, showing an increase of $0.53 or +0.92%. The market is positioned to break above the 50-day moving average at $58.58. A successful breach of the swing top at $58.88 would indicate a strengthening buying trend, with potential targets set between $60.70 and $62.05. If momentum continues, the 200-day moving average at $62.50 could also be tested.
Geopolitical Factors Influencing Oil Prices
Iran's Civil Unrest
Recent civil unrest in Iran has escalated, leading to concerns about potential disruptions in crude oil output. The Iranian government has also implemented an internet shutdown, further complicating the situation.
Venezuela's Political Transition
The political situation in Venezuela is increasingly uncertain. The U.S. has expressed intentions to control the country's oil sector, demanding full access to its operations following the removal of President Nicolás Maduro. This development raises questions about the stability of Venezuelan oil exports.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to intensify, with reports of missile strikes targeting energy infrastructure in Ukraine. This escalation could lead to further supply disruptions in the oil market.
Market Outlook
The fear of supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions has positioned the oil market for a potential breakout above the 50-day moving average. Traders are advised to monitor this level closely, as it could create the momentum needed to challenge higher resistance levels.
Conclusion
As geopolitical risks continue to rise, the crude oil market remains sensitive to developments in Iran, Venezuela, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Traders should stay vigilant and consider these factors when making investment decisions in the oil sector.