Natural Gas Weekly Price Outlook

Author: Christopher Lewis

Published: July 11, 2025

Market Overview

The natural gas market experienced a decline initially during the past week but managed to recover, indicating some resilience. Currently, the market is hovering around the 50-week and 200-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), just below a previous uptrend line. This situation suggests a potential for sideways movement with a slight downward bias, particularly given the seasonal bearish tendencies typical for this time of year.

Technical Analysis

Despite the recent recovery, there is significant resistance above the current price levels, which could pose challenges for further upward movement. The author notes that the lack of heating demand in both the United States and Europe is a critical factor influencing the market. The demand for natural gas is closely tied to weather conditions, particularly heat waves that increase electricity consumption, often generated from natural gas.

Price Levels

The market appears to be consolidating between the $4 resistance level and the $3 support level. The author anticipates that any bounce in prices could present a buying opportunity, but he also plans to short the market at the first signs of exhaustion. A break above the $4 level would significantly alter the market dynamics, while a drop below the $3 level could lead to a further decline towards $2.50.

Conclusion

In summary, the natural gas market is currently in a consolidation phase with a bearish outlook due to seasonal factors and low demand. Traders should remain cautious and watch for key price levels that could indicate future market movements.