Market Analysis Summary - Precious Metals Surge as Markets Await Key U.S. Economic Signals
Market Highlights (29/12/2025)
Global markets experienced heightened volatility last week, characterized by significant gains in precious metals and ongoing geopolitical developments. The U.S. Dollar Index rose to 98.07, while U.S. Treasury yields displayed mixed results, with the 10-year yield at 4.137% and the 2-year yield dipping below 3.5%. This reflects uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's outlook on interest rate cuts. U.S. equities closed slightly lower, whereas Asian markets, particularly Chinese stocks, showed relative strength.
Commodities were the focal point of the session, with precious metals reaching record highs. Spot gold approached $4,550, accompanied by notable increases in silver and platinum, prompting the CME to adjust margin requirements. Conversely, oil prices fell over 2% due to optimism surrounding potential Russia–Ukraine negotiations and concerns about oversupply. Overall, market sentiment remains a balance between strong demand for safe-haven assets and a cautious risk tone ahead of critical U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve guidance.
Key Outlook (29/12/2025)
Market participants are keenly awaiting the U.S. November Pending Home Sales data for insights into housing demand amid changing rate expectations. Additionally, the December Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index will provide information on regional manufacturing trends. A downside surprise in these figures could reinforce expectations for easing, while stronger data may offer short-term support for the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.
Key Data and Events Today
- 23:00 - US Pending Home Sales MoM NOV
- 23:30 - US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index DEC
Tomorrow
- 22:00 - US House Price Index MoM OCT
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1820 / 1.1839
Support: 1.1738 / 1.1719
The EUR/USD remains supported by a weaker dollar amid expectations of a Fed cut in 2026, with price action contained within an ascending channel.
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3556 / 1.3627
Support: 1.3410 / 1.3338
The GBP/USD continues to rise alongside USD weakness, although momentum is showing signs of hesitation.
USD/JPY
Resistance: 156.94 / 157.35
Support: 155.69 / 155.17
The USD/JPY remains volatile, with intervention rhetoric from Japanese officials affecting price action.
US Crude Oil Futures (FEB)
Resistance: 57.95 / 58.42
Support: 56.00 / 55.55
Oil prices are influenced by headlines regarding Russia–Ukraine talks and oversupply concerns.
Spot Gold
Resistance: 4,587 / 4,615
Support: 4,455 / 4,426
Gold remains strong near record levels, supported by Fed cut expectations and geopolitical tensions.
Dow Futures
Resistance: 49,066 / 49,469
Support: 48,431 / 48,033
Dow Futures are near record highs, with consolidation above key support levels.
NAS100
Resistance: 25,835 / 25,974
Support: 25,378 / 25,237
The NAS100 shows resilience, supported by strength in AI-related stocks.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Resistance: 89,545 / 90,743
Support: 86,826 / 85,595
Bitcoin needs a rally to finish 2025 positively, with current price action remaining range-bound.