ASX 200 Forecast: Miners & Lower Yields Lift Index As Energy Stocks Slide

Published: May 26, 2026

Key Highlights

• The ASX 200 Index is showing signs of recovery, moving off recent lows.
• Miners are leading the charge, with notable gains from Newmont (+5.06%), while energy stocks are declining.
• Falling Australian 10-year yields are contributing positively to equity performance.

Market Overview

The ASX 200 Index has been buoyed by strong performances in the mining sector, particularly from companies like BHP, Rio Tinto, and Newmont. In contrast, the energy sector has faced challenges, with Woodside and Santos experiencing declines of 4.24% and 3.64%, respectively. This downturn in energy stocks correlates with a nearly 6% drop in oil prices, driven by optimism surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations.

Technical Analysis

ASX 200 Index

The ASX 200 is currently trading above its 50-SMA and is approaching the 500-SMA, indicating a potential resistance level. The index has bounced off a recent low of 8,255 and is now targeting the short-term Supertrend resistance near 8,798. However, the overall trend remains bearish until a significant upward movement is confirmed.

Daily and Weekly Trends

On the daily chart, the ASX 200 has reclaimed the 21-EMA, suggesting early signs of a trend reversal, although the EMA is still trending lower. The RSI has moved above 50, indicating potential bullish momentum. In the weekly view, the index remains below the Supertrend resistance, but there are signs of recovery as it approaches the 500-SMA.

Australian 10-Year Yield

The Australian 10-year yield has dropped significantly from the 5.15% level, now trading below 5.00%. This decline is seen as supportive for equities, with the yield nearing exhaustion levels around the 4.85% support zone. The behavior of the yield at this level will be crucial for future market direction.

Conclusion

The current trend for the ASX 200 Index is bearish, with a negative bias. Key support is identified at 8,255, while resistance levels are noted at 8,800 and 9,230. Although there are positive movements, the index is expected to consolidate around the 500-SMA before making a decisive move. Confirmation of a trend reversal is still needed.

Author

Cedric Thompson, CMT, CFA, is an investment strategist with expertise in asset management and multi-asset investing.