Gold Market Analysis - February 2026

Current Market Overview

As of February 17, 2026, gold prices have decreased by 2.5%, settling at $4,850 per ounce. This decline is attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar and optimistic developments regarding U.S.-Iran trade negotiations, which have raised hopes for a potential agreement following recent talks in Geneva.

ANZ's Revised Outlook

ANZ has revised its second-quarter gold price outlook, increasing the target from $5,400 to $5,800 per ounce. The bank argues that the recent price pullback does not signify the end of the broader upward trend in gold prices. They believe that the current market conditions are fundamentally different from historical peaks observed in 1980 and 2011.

Key Support Factors for Gold

Several factors are expected to support gold prices moving forward:

• Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: ANZ anticipates two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in March and June, which would lower real yields and support gold inflows.
• Easing Inflation: The market is pricing in the possibility of a third rate cut by December, further supporting gold.
• Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing economic uncertainty and potential trade-war escalations are likely to sustain demand for gold as a hard asset.
• Declining Appeal of Sovereign Bonds: Rising global debt levels are diminishing the attractiveness of bonds, reinforcing gold's role as a portfolio diversifier.

Investment Demand and ETF Inflows

ANZ expects strong central bank demand for gold to continue through 2026, with broader investment demand becoming the primary driver in 2025. They predict that total gold ETF holdings could exceed 4,800 tonnes by 2025, with significant growth anticipated in emerging markets like China and India.

Furthermore, the current flow asymmetry is favorable for gold, as ETF assets represent less than 3% of combined equity and bond holdings, indicating that even minor portfolio reallocations could significantly impact gold prices.

Silver Market Outlook

While ANZ maintains a bullish stance on silver, they do not expect it to outperform gold this year due to its higher volatility and sensitivity to industrial demand at elevated price levels.