Gold and Silver Price Analysis: Will the U.S. Blockade Trigger New Volatility?

Key Points

• Gold and silver are experiencing pressure due to rising geopolitical tensions and increasing oil prices.
• Higher energy costs are driving inflation expectations, impacting gold and silver prices.
• Both metals maintain a bullish structure as long as key support levels hold, with potential for further upside.

Market Overview

The prices of gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) have reacted quickly to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly following the announcement of a U.S. naval blockade. This has led to a deterioration in risk sentiment, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets. However, both metals opened lower, consolidating below key levels.

Meanwhile, WTI and Brent oil prices have surged above $104, with expectations that they could reach $150 due to supply disruptions linked to the geopolitical situation.

Inflation and Economic Impact

The rise in oil prices is contributing to inflationary pressures across global economies, as increased energy costs affect transportation, production, and consumer prices. This situation is creating uncertainty for gold, traditionally viewed as a store of value during inflationary periods. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has already shown a significant increase of 0.9% in March 2026.

Silver's demand will largely depend on industrial demand, which may be affected by rising costs and potential recession risks. A prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could hinder economic growth in major economies, further complicating the outlook for both metals.

Gold Price Analysis

The daily chart for spot gold indicates that prices failed to break above $4,800, subsequently dropping below $4,700. As long as gold remains below $4,800, it may consolidate between $4,400 and $4,800. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also fluctuating below the mid-level, indicating strong resistance at $4,800.

Should gold break above $4,800, it could push towards the $5,000 mark, with further bullish potential if it surpasses this level.

Silver Price Analysis

Spot silver is showing strong consolidation above the $72 level after rebounding from a major support zone at $60. As long as silver remains above $72, it may trend higher. However, if it approaches the lower support zones, it could present a final buying opportunity.

Silver's price structure suggests an upward move as long as it stays above $60, although short-term consolidation may occur before the next upward movement.

Conclusion

Gold and silver are currently vulnerable to geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, which are exerting inflationary pressures and creating market uncertainty. While both metals may face short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, supported by inflation and safe-haven demand. Silver's trajectory will be influenced by both gold's performance and industrial demand. Stability in prices above $4,000 for gold and $50 for silver is crucial for their potential upward movements.