US-Iran Talks Fail, Safe-Haven Demand Returns
By Martin Lam
Summary
After 21 hours of negotiations, the United States and Iran were unable to reach an agreement, leading to heightened tensions in the region. President Trump threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, which raised concerns about potential escalations and prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets at the beginning of the week.
In economic news, U.S. consumer prices in March experienced their largest increase in nearly four years, while consumer sentiment in April fell to a record low. Federal Reserve official Mary Daly indicated that the recent spike in oil prices could delay the return of inflation to target levels.
Market participants are closely monitoring developments in U.S.-Iran relations and the upcoming OPEC monthly oil market report, with expectations of continued volatility.
Global Market Review (April 13, 2026)
U.S. stock markets closed mixed on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of the weekend, keeping a close eye on the ongoing peace talks in the Middle East. Despite this caution, all three major indices recorded their largest weekly percentage gains since November. The U.S. dollar fell, marking its biggest weekly decline since January, as investors moved away from safe-haven assets. The EUR/USD exchange rate rose to 1.172, up 1.8% for the week, while GBP/USD closed at 1.346, up 2% for the week.
Spot gold prices fell by 0.34% on Friday, closing at $4,747.49 per ounce, but still managed a weekly gain of approximately 1.5% as market participants evaluated the stability of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and its implications for interest rates. Oil futures also declined on Friday, with U.S. crude settling down $1.30, or 1.3%, at $96.57 per barrel, resulting in a weekly loss of 13.4%.
Key Events Today
- 22:00 US Existing Home Sales MoM MAR
- 20:00 OPEC Monthly Report
Market Analysis (April 13, 2026)
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1712/1.1740 | Support: 1.1595/1.1567
The EUR/USD pair remained firm near 1.173, but with the collapse of U.S.-Iran talks and rising geopolitical risks, it may struggle to extend gains if safe-haven demand returns to the dollar.
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3446/1.3484 | Support: 1.3321/1.3283
The GBP/USD pair held near 1.347 after strong gains last week, but renewed tensions in the Middle East could quickly shift market sentiment.
USD/JPY
Resistance: 160.08/160.46 | Support: 159.48/159.18
The USD/JPY pair rose toward 159.255, with the yen remaining soft despite rising geopolitical tensions.
US Crude Oil Futures
Resistance: 109.79/113.78 | Support: 97.08/93.15
WTI crude oil jumped more than 8% to around $104.60 following the failure of U.S.-Iran talks, with supply concerns coming back into focus.
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Resistance: 4773/4862 | Support: 4570/4480
Spot gold opened sharply lower near $4,652, indicating market reactions to reduced expectations for Fed easing and inflation implications.
Dow Jones Futures
Resistance: 48440/49080 | Support: 47159/46367
The Dow ended down 0.56%, reflecting caution ahead of the weekend talks, with renewed energy shock risks potentially pressuring U.S. equities.
NASDAQ 100
Resistance: 25289/25674 | Support: 24898/24506
The NASDAQ 100 outperformed, up 0.35%, supported by optimism in AI and major tech stocks, but may face challenges from rising yields and inflation fears.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: 71760/72828 | Support: 69408/68357
Bitcoin held near $71,600, indicating contained selling pressure despite geopolitical stress, supported by resilient ETF demand and institutional buying.