Weekly Market Preview Summary
By Michael J. Kramer, Mott Capital Management Founder
Date: 13 June 2025
Market Overview
As of mid-June 2025, stock markets have shown signs of recovery following the volatility experienced in April and May due to tariff concerns. The S&P 500 index has increased by 3% year-to-date. The upcoming week is expected to feature significant economic events, including interest rate decisions from major central banks, which are anticipated to maintain current rates, potentially stabilizing equity markets.
Key Economic Events
US Retail Sales - Tuesday, 17 June
Analysts predict a modest increase of 0.1% in US retail sales for May, mirroring April's performance. A flat or negative reading could weaken the US dollar, particularly against the euro, which has recently surpassed the $1.15 resistance level. A weak retail sales report may push the EUR/USD pair towards a four-year high of $1.19.
UK Inflation and Bank of England Rate Decision - Wednesday, 18 June & Thursday, 19 June
The UK's consumer price index (CPI) rose to 3.5% in April, driven by higher energy and food prices. If inflation does not show significant easing in May, the Bank of England is likely to keep the base rate at 4.25%. The pound may test its three-year high against the dollar, with potential for further gains if the uptrend continues.
US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan Rate Decisions - Wednesday, 18 June & Tuesday, 17 June
Neither the Federal Reserve nor the Bank of Japan is expected to change interest rates. However, the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections will provide insights into future monetary policy. The USD/JPY pair is currently around ¥144, and any signals of diverging monetary policies could lead to significant movements in this currency pair.
Upcoming Economic Announcements
Key economic announcements for the week include:
- Monday, 16 June: China retail sales, industrial production; Italy CPI.
- Tuesday, 17 June: Bank of Japan interest rate decision; US retail sales.
- Wednesday, 18 June: Eurozone CPI; UK CPI; US Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
- Thursday, 19 June: Bank of England interest rate decision; US markets closed for Juneteenth.
- Friday, 20 June: Canada retail sales; China interest rate decision; UK retail sales.