Dogecoin Price Retests the Zone That Triggered 900% DOGE Rally
By Yashu Gola | Published: Aug 04, 2026
Key Points
- Dogecoin (DOGE) is testing a significant support zone between $0.048 and $0.063, which has historically led to substantial price rallies.
- If support holds, DOGE could rebound towards the $0.088–$0.12 range; however, a weekly close below $0.05 would weaken the bullish outlook.
- Potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) could impact DOGE and other risk assets negatively.
Current Market Overview
As of August 4, 2026, Dogecoin is trading around $0.07, which is approximately 85% lower than its peak of $0.48 in late 2024. The price remains below key weekly exponential moving averages, indicating that sellers are currently in control of the market.
Dogecoin is approaching a historical accumulation zone between $0.048 and $0.063, which has previously led to significant price increases of 224% and 887% after testing this range in 2022 and 2024, respectively.
Technical Analysis
The weekly relative strength index (RSI) for DOGE is currently at 32.7, suggesting that it may soon enter an oversold condition. A potential rebound could see DOGE rise towards its 20-week EMA near $0.088, with further resistance at $0.11–$0.12.
However, if DOGE closes below $0.05 on a weekly basis, it would invalidate the bullish accumulation thesis and expose the asset to further declines.
Macro Risks
Global liquidity conditions pose a risk to Dogecoin's recovery. The BoJ recently maintained its policy rate at 1%, with discussions of a potential increase to 1.25%. This has led to a rise in Japan's two-year government bond yield and increased expectations for a rate hike in September.
Similarly, the Fed is also expected to raise rates, with a 62.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September. Such simultaneous tightening could strengthen the yen and lead to the unwinding of yen-funded carry trades, which historically have negatively impacted risk assets, including DOGE.
In August 2024, a similar deleveraging event caused significant declines in major indices and cryptocurrencies, which could happen again if current conditions persist.