Market Navigator: ECB Decision, Big Tech Earnings – Week of 20 Jul 2026

Author: Fabien Yip, Market Analyst, IG

Publication Date: Sunday, 19 July 2026

Summary

Last week saw significant market movements influenced by various economic indicators and geopolitical tensions. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a cooling trend, easing Federal Reserve hike expectations, while the Nasdaq 100 experienced a notable sell-off. Key events to watch this week include the European Central Bank (ECB) decision and earnings reports from major tech companies like Alphabet and Tesla.

Last Week's Recap

• US CPI: The headline CPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month in June, bringing the annual rate down to 3.5%, which was below the consensus of 3.8%. This cooling has reduced the probability of a Fed rate hike to 76% from 85% the previous week.
• China's GDP Growth: China's GDP growth slowed to 4.3% in Q2, missing the target of 4.5%-5%. Retail sales showed a modest increase of 1%, failing to indicate a strong recovery in domestic demand.
• Brent Crude Oil: Brent crude prices surged by 15.9% due to reduced traffic in the Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions, reaching nearly $88 per barrel.

Markets in Focus

The Nasdaq 100 fell by 4.1% due to concerns over capital expenditures in the tech sector, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.6% driven by optimism surrounding AI developments. Gold prices hovered near $4,000, influenced by expectations of prolonged high interest rates.

US Tech Sector

The technology sector faced significant declines, with the S&P 500 down 1.6% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 10%. Despite record revenues from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), concerns over increased capital expenditure led to skepticism about future profitability.

Hang Seng Index

The Hang Seng Index defied regional trends, buoyed by advancements in AI. Notable developments included Apple's regulatory approval for AI initiatives in China, which positively impacted Alibaba's stock.

Gold Market

Gold prices fell by 2.5% as geopolitical tensions and expectations of sustained high interest rates pressured the market. Major banks revised their gold price forecasts downward, although medium-term demand from central banks remains a supportive factor.

The Week Ahead

This week, the ECB is expected to maintain its deposit facility rate at 2.25%. Inflation data from the UK and Japan will also be closely monitored, alongside earnings reports from major corporations, including Alphabet and Tesla. Investors are particularly interested in how these companies will manage capital expenditures while maintaining profitability.

Key Economic Events

• Tuesday, 21 July: UK unemployment rate and Japan balance of trade.
• Wednesday, 22 July: UK inflation rate and earnings from Alphabet and Tesla.
• Thursday, 23 July: ECB rate decision and press conference.
• Friday, 24 July: Japan core inflation rate and UK retail sales data.

Corporate Earnings Highlights

Key earnings reports this week include:

• Alphabet
• Tesla
• Intel
• Texas Instruments
• IBM

Overall, the market remains cautious as investors assess economic indicators and corporate earnings amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.