Summary of US500 Market Analysis - February 20, 2026

The US stock market is currently experiencing a stabilization phase following recent declines, particularly in the S&P 500 index. This moment is significant as it coincides with the Q4 2025 earnings season, which has shown promising results in terms of revenue growth.

Key Highlights

• The S&P 500's blended revenue growth rate for Q4 2025 is reported at 9% year-over-year, marking the strongest growth in three years.
• This growth rate, if maintained, would represent the highest revenue growth since Q3 2022, which recorded an 11% growth.
• Revenue growth expectations have been revised upwards throughout the earnings season.

Sector Performance

Out of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500, 10 are reporting year-over-year revenue growth. Notably, three sectors are achieving double-digit revenue growth:

• Information Technology: Revenue growth increased to 20.6% from 17.9%.
• Health Care: Revenue growth increased to 10.3% from 9.0%.
• Communication Services: Revenue growth increased to 12.2% from 10.2%.

Notable Earnings Surprises

Several companies reported earnings that exceeded expectations:

• Apple: $143.76 billion vs. $138.39 billion expected.
• Microsoft: $81.27 billion vs. $80.31 billion expected.
• Cigna: $72.50 billion vs. $70.31 billion expected.
• Alphabet: $113.83 billion vs. $111.32 billion expected.
• Amazon: $213.39 billion vs. $211.44 billion expected.

Future Outlook

Despite the strong earnings data, S&P 500 futures have not shown a corresponding increase, raising concerns that stock valuations may have outpaced earnings growth. Analysts predict a slowdown in revenue growth for 2026:

• Q1 2026: 8.7% y/y
• Q2 2026: 7.9% y/y
• Q3 2026: 7.3% y/y
• Q4 2026: 7.4% y/y

In conclusion, while the current earnings season has shown robust revenue growth, the market's reaction suggests caution, indicating that investors should remain vigilant regarding future earnings expectations and market valuations.