Daily Summary - End of Oil Gains and a Brilliant Quarter for Wall Street (30.06.2026)

Market Overview

On June 30, 2026, the financial markets experienced significant movements, particularly in oil and stock indices. The oil market saw a notable decline, while Wall Street celebrated its best quarter in six years.

Oil Market

Crude oil prices faced a substantial drop, with Brent crude futures falling approximately 30% in the second quarter. This decline was attributed to a geopolitical premium that was negated following peace negotiations in Doha, Qatar, which restored tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. As of the end of June, Brent crude was priced around $73 per barrel, while WTI fell below $70. Analysts from Morgan Stanley revised their price forecasts downward, citing structural oversupply and weak demand.

Stock Markets

In the United States, major indices closed the quarter on a high note. The S&P 500 rose by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.8%, driven by a rebound in technology stocks. The quarter saw an increase in market value by $8 trillion, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Retail investors adopted a "buying the dip" strategy, significantly increasing their asset purchases during market downturns.

European markets had a mixed performance, with the Stoxx Europe index rising by 0.9% and the German DAX increasing by 1.4%. However, the French CAC and Swiss SMI experienced slight declines.

Macroeconomic Indicators

United Kingdom

The UK reported a GDP growth of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with forecasts but showing signs of slowing momentum with a 0.1% decline in April.

Poland

Poland's preliminary CPI for June was recorded at 2.5% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, indicating no immediate changes in interest rates.

United States

Job openings remained stable at 7.594 million, exceeding expectations, while consumer confidence saw a slight increase. The Chicago PMI index also rose above forecasts, indicating economic resilience.

Germany

Germany's inflation rate slowed to 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting a decrease in consumer price pressures.

China

China's economic indicators showed improvement, with manufacturing and services PMIs exceeding forecasts.

Currency and Commodities

Currencies

The EUR/USD exchange rate remained stable above 1.14, while the Japanese Yen continued to weaken, reaching its lowest level in 40 years.

Precious Metals

Gold prices saw a modest rebound, stabilizing above $4,000 per ounce, although it has lost significant value since the onset of geopolitical tensions earlier in the year.

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin and Ether both experienced declines, with Bitcoin falling to just above $58,000 and Ether to $1,568.

Conclusion

The end of June 2026 marked a pivotal moment in the financial markets, characterized by a significant downturn in oil prices and a robust performance in U.S. equities, despite underlying economic challenges and geopolitical uncertainties.