US Dollar Price Forecast: Dollar Hits 99.35 as Hormuz Shuts

Published: March 09, 2026, 11:19 GMT+00:00

Key Points

• The US Dollar Index (DXY) reaches 99.35, driven by a 25% spike in oil prices, raising inflation concerns and prompting safe-haven buying.
• Geopolitical tensions, including airstrikes in the Middle East and blockages in the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed crude oil prices above $100.
• Rising energy costs are increasing inflation risks in the US, leading to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

Market Overview

The US dollar has started the week strongly, with the DXY trading at 99.25, reflecting a 0.26% gain. The primary driver of this strength is investor anxiety over inflation due to surging oil prices.

Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices

Oil prices have surged over 25%, reaching levels not seen since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. Recent airstrikes by Israel and the US on Iranian oil facilities, coupled with Iranian missile strikes and blockages in the Strait of Hormuz, have exacerbated the situation. The Strait is crucial for oil transport, and its disruption could lead to significant supply issues.

Safe Haven Buying

In light of the escalating tensions, investors are flocking to the US dollar as a safe haven. The market is on edge, anticipating further disruptions in oil supply, which could drive prices even higher and intensify inflationary pressures.

Technical Analysis

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

The DXY is currently at 99.35, within a rising channel on the 2-hour chart. It has tested the 99.68 resistance level but has not maintained that position. Support is found at the channel base and the 50-EMA near 98.90. Traders are advised to look for buying opportunities around 98.90, targeting 99.68.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is trading around 1.3340, constrained within a bearish channel. A bounce from the 1.3280–1.3300 support zone has not led to a breakout above 1.3400. A break below 1.3300 could target 1.3250. Traders should consider selling near 1.3390, with a target at 1.3300.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1547, also within a bearish channel. The price has dipped below the 1.1600 level and is approaching the swing low near 1.1530. A breakdown below this level could target 1.1486. Traders should look to sell below 1.1530, targeting 1.1486, but be cautious of a potential recovery above 1.1600.

Conclusion

The current geopolitical climate and rising oil prices are significantly impacting the US dollar's strength and market sentiment. Traders should remain vigilant and consider the outlined technical levels for potential trading opportunities.