Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Hits $115 Resistance – Will Supply Shocks Spark $120?
Author: Arslan Ali
Published: April 07, 2026
Key Points
- Crude oil is currently struggling at $115.40; a failure to break higher could lead to a technical pullback towards $111.00.
- Spot markets are experiencing premiums of $30–$40 as traders anticipate significant disruptions affecting 20% of global oil supply.
- Natural gas is precariously holding above $2.75; a break below this level could expose a target of $2.65.
Market Overview
Crude oil prices are fluctuating between $112 and $115 due to supply disruptions linked to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Approximately 20% of the world's oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, causing WTI prices to surge nearly 20% in the past month and over 90% year-over-year. Spot market premiums are reflecting these risks, with prices elevated by $30 to $40.
Natural Gas Outlook
Natural gas prices are also affected by potential supply shifts, with current prices hovering around $2.80. The market is at a critical juncture, as a break below $2.75 could lead to a decline towards $2.65. Conversely, a recovery above $2.90 could push prices up to $3.05.
Technical Analysis
WTI Crude Oil
WTI crude is currently trading around $114-$115, just below a significant resistance level at $115.40. The market is showing signs of potential pullback as momentum stalls, with the RSI nearing overbought territory. A breakout above $115.50 could lead to prices reaching $119-$120, while failure to do so may result in a pullback to $111.00 or lower.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude is trading between $110-$111, facing resistance around $112-$114. The price action is supported by an ascending trendline, but a drop below $109.00 could signal a move towards $103.50. A break above $112.00 could see prices rise towards $114.50.
Trade Ideas
- Natural Gas: Sell below $2.75 targeting $2.65, with a stop loss above $2.90.
- WTI Crude: Sell below $115.50 targeting $111, with a stop loss just above $116.50.
- Brent Crude: Buy above $112 targeting $114.50, with a stop loss below $109.
Conclusion
The oil and natural gas markets are currently influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions. Traders should remain vigilant as prices are at critical resistance levels, and potential pullbacks could present trading opportunities.