Summary of COT Update - February 9, 2026

Author: Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy

Date: February 9, 2026

Key Highlights

• The Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates significant changes in futures positions by hedge funds in forex and commodities for the week ending February 3, 2026.
• Speculators have more than doubled their dollar short positions against eight IMM futures, reaching a six-month high.
• Precious metals have experienced historic volatility, leading to broad deleveraging among hedge funds, particularly in silver, which saw its net long position drop to a 23-month low.
• In contrast, speculative positions in crude oil and refined products increased, with combined net longs for Brent and WTI reaching a six-month high.
• Grains saw modest buying activity, while livestock remains the most favored agricultural sector.

Forex Market Insights

In the forex market, there is a strong bias towards US dollar selling, despite a slight rebound in the dollar's value. The gross short position across eight IMM currency futures surged to USD 17.4 billion, the highest in six months. Notable changes include:

• The euro's net long position increased by 24% to 163,361 contracts (USD 4.6 billion).
• Net long positions also rose in the Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar.
• The Japanese yen initially strengthened following a significant electoral victory for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's ruling party, but concerns over potential intervention kept USDJPY cautious.

Commodities Market Overview

The COT report reflects a sharp shift in sentiment across major commodity futures, with the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index dropping by 3%. Key observations include:

• Precious metals led the declines, with silver down 21.4%, platinum down 12.9%, and natural gas down 13.3%.
• Managed-money accounts have been reducing their positions, with gold net longs cut by 23% and silver net longs down 38%.
• Despite the volatility, crude oil and refined products saw increased speculative buying, with net longs rising significantly.
• In agriculture, grains experienced net buying, while soft commodities faced selling pressure, particularly in sugar and coffee.

Conclusion

The COT update highlights a period of significant deleveraging in the precious metals market, while crude oil and agricultural sectors show resilience. The forex market remains heavily skewed towards dollar shorts, indicating a cautious outlook among speculators.

About the COT Report

The COT reports are published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and provide insights into the positioning of different market participants, including managed money and commercial traders. These reports are crucial for understanding market sentiment and potential price movements.