Market Analysis Summary: Oil and Natural Gas Forecast

Published: February 18, 2026

Key Highlights

• Oil prices are experiencing a decline as the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan approaches full production capacity by February 23, increasing supply pressure on global crude markets.
• US crude inventories are projected to rise by 2.3 million barrels, contributing to a bearish sentiment for both WTI and Brent crude oil.
• Diplomatic engagements have eased immediate fears regarding supply disruptions from key Middle Eastern producers, reducing the political risk premium in oil prices.
• Despite positive developments, analysts caution that a long-term agreement is uncertain, with a 65% chance of renewed conflict by the end of April.

Natural Gas Forecast

Natural gas futures are currently trading around $3.01, hovering just above a critical support level of $3.00. The price has struggled to surpass the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $3.329 and remains below the 0.382 level at $2.673. The market is characterized by short-range candlesticks, indicating increased uncertainty among traders following a recent price surge to $4.39.

The 50-period Exponential Moving Average is flat, while the 200-period Exponential Moving Average is trending upwards, suggesting a positive long-term outlook. Key support levels are identified at $2.67 and $2.14, while resistance levels are at $3.33 and $3.91.

Trade Idea: Consider selling if natural gas drops below $2.99, targeting $2.67, and setting a stop-loss if it rises above $3.20.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading at $62.39, supported by a rising trendline established in early January. The price has fallen below both the 50-period and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages, with the latter acting as a significant support level at $61.13. Small-bodied candles on the chart indicate trader uncertainty after a recent peak at $63.82.

A break below $61.13 could lead to further declines to $60.14 and $58.97. Conversely, if prices recover above $63.82, targets could rise to $65.12 and $66.45.

Trade Idea: Sell if crude drops below $61.10, targeting $60.15, and set a stop-loss if it exceeds $62.80.

Brent Crude Oil Forecast

Brent crude is currently priced at $67.66, maintaining support above a rising trendline at $67.07. The price has faced resistance at $70.32, indicated by long upper wicks on the chart. The proximity of the 50-period and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages suggests a stable trend.

If Brent can hold above $67.07, potential support levels are at $65.50 and $64.30. A breakout above $68.75 could see prices retest $70.32 and $71.47.

Trade Idea: Buy if Brent exceeds $68.80, targeting $70.30, and set a stop-loss if it falls below $67.00.

Conclusion

The current market conditions for oil and natural gas indicate a complex interplay of supply pressures and geopolitical factors. Traders should remain vigilant and consider the outlined trade ideas based on technical analysis and market sentiment.