Natural Gas Price Forecast: Failed Breakout Signals Deeper Consolidation
By Bruce Powers | Published: Jun 23, 2026
Market Overview
Natural gas prices have recently experienced a downturn following a failed bullish breakout attempt. The price action is currently testing key moving averages and Fibonacci support levels within a broader consolidation structure.
Failed Breakout Reasserts Bearish Control
On Tuesday, natural gas continued to weaken after a failed breakout above a short-term trendline that had been triggered on Monday. The session closed near its lows, indicating that sellers remained in control. A bearish reversal was confirmed with a drop below Monday's low of $3.26, establishing a lower daily high of $3.31 and a low of $3.17.
Resistance Rejection at Broken Trendline
The high of Tuesday marked a successful test of resistance at the short-term downtrend line that was broken on Monday. This behavior is considered bearish and suggests that the ascending broadening formation pattern is evolving within a corrective structure. The lower boundary of this pattern is defined by an uptrend line and the convergence of the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both near $3.07. This support zone can also be extended to include the recent higher swing low at $3.06 and the 50% retracement level of the prior advance at $3.04.
Momentum Shift Within the Broader Structure
Despite the recent failed breakout, the 50-day moving average is beginning to cross above the 100-day moving average, indicating a potential strengthening of intermediate-term momentum. This suggests that support may be found near the lower boundary of the formation, although the chances of exceeding the current trend high of $3.42 in the near term have diminished.
Key Support Holds the Line
The recent swing low at $3.06 successfully tested support near the 100-day moving average, marking the second defense of this level since it was reclaimed on May 15. Remaining above the 100-day average indicates potential strength, while the 200-day moving average near $3.31 serves as key dynamic resistance. This means that the 200-day average likely defines the upper end of a resistance range starting from the recent high of $3.42. Overall, the market is still operating within a broader consolidation phase, characterized by failed breakouts and repeated support tests.