Market Analysis Summary: Fed Holds Rates; PCE and ECB Take Center Stage
Author: Martin Lam
Date: October 29, 2026
Key Takeaways
- The Federal Reserve has decided to hold interest rates steady, with attention now shifting to the upcoming US PCE inflation data, third-quarter GDP figures, and the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement.
- Two members of the Fed dissented, advocating for a rate hike, but no commitment was made regarding future increases in December.
- Mixed earnings results from Microsoft and Alphabet are creating uncertainty for technology stocks.
- Today's focus includes the US core PCE inflation, GDP, and jobless claims, with core PCE expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and GDP projected at 3.2% annualized.
- The ECB is expected to maintain its current rates, with its press conference anticipated to provide insights on inflation assessments and potential tightening measures.
Global Market Review (October 28, 2026)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 97.53 points (0.19%) to close at 52,475.10. The S&P 500 rose by 0.28% to 7,743.98, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.27% to 26,549.85. However, futures weakened following Alphabet's disappointing earnings report, despite Microsoft’s positive performance.
Current market indicators include a Dollar Index at 102.15 (-0.21%), a 2-year Treasury yield at 4.697% (-3.9 bps), and a 10-year yield at 5.018% (+2.1 bps). WTI crude oil is priced at $102.78 (+2.88%), and gold is at $4,067.04 (+0.23%).
Economic Calendar (Key Events on October 29, 2026)
| Time (GMT+8) | Event | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Euro Area Economic Sentiment OCT | ** |
| 20:30 | US Core PCE Price Index MoM SEP | *** |
| 20:30 | US GDP Annualized QoQ Advance Q3 | *** |
| 20:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims | *** |
| 21:15 | ECB Rate Decision | *** |
| 21:45 | ECB Press Conference | *** |
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
Resistance is noted at 1.1173 and support at 1.1113, with a neutral to cautiously bearish bias. The Fed's divided stance suggests potential for further tightening, while the ECB's decisions will also impact the Euro.
GBP/USD
Key resistance is at 1.3353 and support at 1.3246, maintaining a neutral bias. UK inflation supports a potential Bank of England hike, while US data could influence the Pound's recovery.
USD/JPY
Resistance is at 158.20 and support at 157.18, with a neutral bias. The US-Japan rate gap favors the Dollar, but upcoming BoJ forecasts may shift expectations.
US Crude Oil Futures
Resistance is at 104.16 and support at 100.74, with a neutral bias. Oil prices are influenced by supply headlines and geopolitical tensions.
Spot Gold
Gold shows support at 4028 and resistance at 4113, with a neutral to bullish bias. Elevated oil prices and inflation risks remain relevant.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance is at 81988 and support at 79796, with a cautiously bearish bias. Bitcoin's performance is tied to technology sentiment and market reassessment of tightening risks.
Conclusion
As the market awaits critical economic data and central bank announcements, investors are positioned to react to potential shifts in monetary policy and economic indicators.