Market Analysis Summary: S&P 500, EUR/GBP, and Silver Rally Stall
Author: Axel Rudolph, Market Analyst
Publication Date: Thursday, 09 April 2026
Macro Update
Recent developments in the oil market have seen Brent and WTI crude prices rebound towards the $95 to $97 range. This increase is attributed to ongoing uncertainties surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire and slow progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which has kept supply concerns elevated. Shipping in the region remains restricted due to security risks, including mines and high insurance costs, leading analysts to predict limited additional supply in the near term despite the ceasefire.
Middle Eastern tensions continue to pose risks, with ongoing strikes in Lebanon and attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure highlighting the fragility of the truce and the potential impact on regional oil supply. As a result, equities have lost momentum following a relief rally, with Asian markets and US futures softening as investors reassess geopolitical risks and the sustainability of the ceasefire.
Inflation expectations have been repriced higher, with oil prices remaining approximately 40% above pre-conflict levels. This situation reinforces expectations of persistent inflation and diminishes the likelihood of rate cuts, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain its current stance, leaning towards potential rate hikes.
In the foreign exchange and bond markets, the dollar has stabilized after recent losses, Treasury yields remain elevated, and gold prices have held firm as investors navigate the balance between geopolitical risks and evolving monetary policy expectations.
S&P 500 Rally Stalls
The S&P 500's rally, spurred by the Iran ceasefire, is currently taking a breather, with a potential retracement towards the March 17 high of 6,754. Should the peak of 6,793 from Wednesday be surpassed, the next targets would be the February 24 low at 6,815 and the March 10 high at 6,845.
Short-term outlook: Bullish while above the March 3 low at 6,711.
Medium-term outlook: Bullish while above the April 7 low at 6,535.
EUR/GBP Ascent Takes a Breather
The EUR/GBP currency pair has seen a recovery from the lows of £0.8613 to £0.8610 in early February and late August 2025, reaching £0.8742 in late March. This level has capped the advance, and as long as this week's low at £0.8686 holds, another attempt to revisit the resistance area of £0.8740 to £0.8746 may occur. If this resistance is exceeded, the March peak at £0.8789 would be the next target.
Short-term outlook: Bullish while above the March 31 low of £0.8676.
Medium-term outlook: Neutral with a bullish bias while between the March boundaries of £0.8613 to £0.8789.
Silver Price Stays Sidelined
The price of silver has been gradually rising from its March 23 low of $61.0065 but remains capped by a previously breached support line, now acting as resistance, at $76.7988. If this resistance and this week's high of $77.6525 are overcome, the focus would shift to the March 3 low at $77.9611.
Minor support may be found between the early April lows of $69.8120 to $69.5645, and a fall below this range could lead to a test of the mid-December high at $66.8973.
Short-term outlook: Bullish while above the April 2 low of $69.5645.
Medium-term outlook: Neutral while above the March low of $61.0065 but below the March high of $96.4255; a failure at $61.0065 would shift the forecast to bearish.
Charts
Daily candlestick charts for S&P 500, EUR/GBP, and Silver are referenced but not displayed in this summary.