Market Quick Take - 13 March 2026

Market Drivers and Catalysts

• Equities: Global stocks fell as oil prices surged to $100, negatively impacting sentiment, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, while Asia remained cautious.
• Volatility: Ongoing conflict in Iran, oil prices above $95–$100, and elevated VIX near 27 contributed to market uncertainty.
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin surpassed $71k, with altcoins showing strength, buoyed by regulatory optimism.
• Fixed Income: U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise, alongside Japan’s JGB yields.
• Currencies: The U.S. dollar acted as a safe haven, reaching new local highs against the EUR and JPY.
• Commodities: Gold prices softened amid concerns over central bank sales to fund oil purchases.

Macro Events

Key macroeconomic data included Canada’s February employment figures, U.S. January PCE inflation, and March University of Michigan sentiment.

Macro Headlines

Iran's Supreme Leader threatened to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, impacting 20% of global oil trade and prompting production cuts in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The International Energy Agency (IEA) described the disruption as historic, leading to a 400 million barrel release from reserves.

The U.S. trade deficit decreased to $54.5 billion in January, with exports rising 5.5% driven by gold and metals, while imports fell slightly. U.S. housing starts increased by 7.2%, indicating growth in the construction sector.

Canada's trade deficit widened, with exports declining due to lower vehicle and aircraft sales, while imports also fell.

Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell, suggesting a stable labor market despite concerns over government shutdowns.

Earnings This Week

Notable earnings include PKO Bank.

Equities Overview

USA

The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, the Dow Jones dropped 1.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.8% due to rising oil prices and inflation fears. Financial stocks were particularly affected, with Morgan Stanley down 4.1% and JPMorgan off 1.6%.

Europe

European markets were defensive, with the STOXX 600 down 0.6%. Banks faced significant losses, while some companies like Leonardo and Daimler Truck saw gains due to positive growth forecasts.

Asia

Asian markets also faced pressure, with the Nikkei 225 down 1.1%. Honda warned of its first annual loss in nearly 70 years, impacting investor sentiment.

Volatility

Volatility remains high due to geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices, with the VIX indicating ongoing market uncertainty. Upcoming macro data could further influence market expectations ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Digital Assets

Digital assets showed resilience, with Bitcoin trading around $71,400. Regulatory developments in the U.S. are fostering optimism, while ETF activity remains crucial for institutional exposure.

Fixed Income

U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply due to inflation concerns driven by energy prices. The market has adjusted expectations for future rate cuts, with yields on Japanese government bonds also increasing.

Commodities

Oil prices remain a key driver of market sentiment, with Brent crude closing above $100 per barrel. Gold prices dipped as concerns arose over potential central bank sales to fund oil purchases.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar strengthened as a safe haven, with EUR/USD dipping below 1.1500 and USD/JPY trading above 159.00, raising concerns about potential Japanese intervention.