Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Defends $73.85 While Brent Holds $78.33

Key Points

• OPEC+ maintains output discipline while non-OPEC supply, particularly from U.S. shale production, continues to grow.
• Global refinery utilization remains high, supporting steady demand for transportation fuels and petrochemical feedstocks.
• U.S. crude inventories are near minimum working levels, with resilient demand for refined products.

Market Overview

As of July 9, 2026, the global oil market is characterized by a balance between OPEC+ production discipline and increased output from non-OPEC sources. The summer driving season has led to elevated refinery utilization, maintaining strong demand for fuels and petrochemicals. Recent reports indicate that U.S. crude stocks have shown limited net changes, with operating inventories just above minimum levels. Demand for refined products remains robust, driven by steady economic activity.

Natural Gas Production and Demand

U.S. natural gas production is reaching new highs, supported by both associated gas volumes and output from natural gas wells. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export facilities are operating at capacity due to strong international demand. Current inventory levels are above average, indicating a well-supplied domestic and export market. Power sector demand fluctuates with weather conditions, while industrial consumption remains stable.

Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Futures

Natural gas futures are trading around $3.212. After a rejection at the EMA 100 around $3.222, the market has shown alternating bullish and bearish candles, indicating buyer control during pullbacks. The RSI is at 40, suggesting neutral momentum. Key support is identified at the $3.12 zone, with resistance expected between $3.229 and $3.260.

Trade Idea: Long entry at $3.212, target price $3.260, stop loss at $3.12.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil is currently trading around $73.85. Following a drop from a high of $93.59, the market is testing the 0.236 Fibonacci level at approximately $73.15. The RSI is at 42, indicating neutral momentum. Support is seen between $73.15 and $77.05, with resistance expected from $80.21 to $83.37.

Trade Idea: Short entry at $73.85, target price $66.83, stop loss at $77.05.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent crude oil is trading around $78.33. After testing the blue floor of a descending channel at around $77.94, the market shows signs of buyer absorption. The RSI is at 61, indicating neutral to bullish momentum. The fair value area is between $78.00 and $79.00, with resistance expected from $80.30 to $82.31.

Trade Idea: Long entry at $78.33, target price $80.30, stop loss at $77.94.