Bitcoin Price Forecast Analysis

Author: Yashu Gola

Published: July 1, 2025

Key Insights

• Bitcoin's (BTC) Apparent Demand has turned negative, indicating a decline in buying interest.
• Current price consolidation suggests potential risks of a drop towards $98,600.
• A breakout above $112,000 could lead to a bullish trend targeting $130,000–$132,000.

Market Overview

Bitcoin's on-chain data reveals a concerning trend as the Apparent Demand metric has shifted into negative territory. This change suggests that the buying interest in the market is weakening, particularly in the face of increased selling pressure from miners and long-term holders (LTHs). Despite Bitcoin maintaining a price above $107,000, the negative demand signals a fragile market condition.

Apparent Demand Analysis

The Apparent Demand metric, which is a 30-day summation adjusted for newly mined supply and LTH coins, has not been negative since mid-March. This downturn indicates that new buyers are insufficient to absorb the selling pressure from miners and LTHs, who are increasingly circulating their coins. Historically, negative Apparent Demand has been associated with consolidation phases or significant price corrections.

Technical Analysis

The daily price chart for Bitcoin shows it consolidating within a bull flag pattern, which is typically a bullish continuation structure. However, repeated rejections near the upper trendline of this pattern raise concerns about short-term downside risks. The lower support trendline of the bull flag aligns with the $98,600 level, which also corresponds to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.

Potential Scenarios

Despite the current bearish signals, there remains a possibility for bullish momentum. A breakout above the $110,000–$112,000 range could transform the current structure into a bullish continuation pattern, potentially leading to a price rally towards the $130,000–$132,000 zone. This scenario would require strong volume and a recovery in on-chain demand to confirm that buyers are regaining control.

Conclusion

In summary, Bitcoin's market dynamics are currently characterized by a negative Apparent Demand, indicating potential risks for a price drop. However, the technical setup suggests that a breakout could lead to significant upward movement if supported by strong buying activity. Traders should remain vigilant and monitor these key levels closely.