FX Futures Positioning Summary

Author: Matt Simpson, Market Analyst

Date: March 15, 2026

Overview

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data reveals significant shifts in FX futures positioning, influenced by geopolitical tensions and varying central bank outlooks. Traders have been reducing their exposure to the US dollar while adjusting their positions in the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen.

Key Findings

• US Dollar: Despite geopolitical tensions, traders have cut their aggregate exposure to the US dollar for three consecutive weeks, with a reduction of $7.4 billion to a seven-week low of $5.7 billion.
• EUR/USD: Net-long positions in euro futures have decreased significantly, falling by 31.5k contracts, marking the fourth consecutive weekly decline.
• GBP/USD: Traders have increased their net-short positions on the British pound for five weeks in a row, reaching a 15-week high of 84.2k contracts.
• USD/JPY: There has been a notable reduction in net-long positions, with a combined decrease of 40k contracts among large speculators and asset managers.
• USD/CAD: Net-long exposure to Canadian dollar futures has increased by 23k contracts across both groups of traders.
• AUD/USD: A reduction in long positions has led to a decline in net-long exposure among large speculators for the first time in six weeks.
• NZD/USD: Asset managers have increased their net-short exposure for the fourth consecutive week, reaching a six-week high of 37.4k contracts.

Detailed Positioning Analysis

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Net-short exposure to the US dollar has continued to decline, with a significant reduction over the past three weeks, marking the most aggressive culling since November 2024. Asset managers have increased their net-long exposure to a 14-week high.

EUR/USD

Net-long exposure to euro futures has fallen sharply, primarily due to a significant reduction in long contracts. This trend aligns with the strengthening of the US dollar, as the euro constitutes a major part of the USD basket.

GBP/USD

Positioning for the British pound is nearing a sentiment extreme, with asset managers trimming their net-short exposure while large speculators continue to increase theirs. The upcoming Bank of England meeting may provide further clarity on market sentiment.

USD/JPY

Asset managers are close to flipping to net-short exposure on the Japanese yen, driven by a combination of reduced long positions and increased short exposure. This shift could indicate potential upward movement for USD/JPY.

Conclusion

The COT report indicates a dynamic shift in FX futures positioning, reflecting traders' responses to geopolitical events and central bank policies. As market sentiment evolves, these positioning changes will be crucial for understanding future currency movements.