Alibaba Group Holdings, Ltd. (BABA) Price Forecast Summary
Published: February 18, 2026
Author: Bruce Powers
Key Points
- Post-breakout pullback can attract buyers.
- Trend remains bullish while channel holds.
- A higher swing low would confirm strength.
- Upper channel marks resistance.
- Earnings add near-term risk.
Post-Breakout Pullback Tests Support
The stock of Alibaba Group Holdings, Ltd. (BABA) has experienced a pullback following a bull flag breakout, which may attract buyers. The recent pullback to a low of $152.85 completed a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $152.94 of the advance that followed the flag breakout. This week’s low of $153.46 confirmed support. If BABA confirms support with a move upward, a higher swing low will be established, indicating a reassertion of bullish momentum from the breakout. However, caution is advised as Alibaba is set to report its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings on February 19.
Channel Structure Supports the Trend
Alibaba Group stock is positioned bullishly within a rising trend channel. The previous pullback after reaching a new trend high of $192.67 in October bounced from a support zone near the trend high from March 2025 at $148.43 and the 50% retracement of the near-term upswing at $148.19. The flag breakout on January 12 rose above a four-day high and reclaimed the 20-week moving average. Although the market is not currently recognizing the 20-week average, the higher swing low in January demonstrated strong support that is expected to hold unless the channel structure is violated.
Long-Term Structure and Key Resistance
BABA triggered a long-term bottom reversal in February 2025 above $117.82, which was confirmed in August after the first pullback to support at the 50-week average. This indicates that the long-term advance, represented by the trend channel, shows dynamic support at the 50-week average. The first advance from the flag breakout encountered resistance at $181.10, resulting in a lower swing high. Notably, this resistance coincided with the center line of the rising channel and followed resistance at the October peak, suggesting that resistance is developing along the upper half of the channel.
Downside Levels to Monitor
If this week’s low fails to hold as support, the next potential downside support zone is near $145.27, with the rising trendline providing additional guidance. However, the more significant support zone remains near the 50-week average, currently at $140.47.
Conclusion
In summary, Alibaba Group Holdings, Ltd. (BABA) is currently in a bullish trend, with recent pullbacks providing potential buying opportunities. Investors should monitor key support levels and upcoming earnings reports that may introduce volatility.