XRP Market Analysis - December 2025
Author: Bob Mason
Published: December 29, 2025
Key Highlights
- XRP remains below $2, influenced by bearish EMAs, but seven weeks of spot ETF inflows suggest a cautiously bullish outlook.
- Despite BTC's weakness and significant ETF outflows, XRP shows signs of potential decoupling.
- Legislative momentum and ETF demand could help XRP recover from a 16% loss in the second half of 2025.
Current Market Situation
XRP experienced a minor setback on December 28, failing to reclaim the $2.0 mark as active accounts decreased, indicating profit-taking. Bitcoin's downward trend, coupled with significant outflows from BTC-spot ETFs, has negatively impacted XRP's price.
ETF Market Dynamics
The XRP-spot ETF market reported net inflows of $64 million, contrasting sharply with the $589.4 million outflows from the BTC-spot ETF market. Despite this, XRP closed the week down 3.04%, highlighting the ongoing influence of BTC on XRP's price movements.
Legislative Developments and Market Sentiment
Progress in crypto-friendly legislation is crucial for XRP's price recovery. The delay in the Market Structure Bill due to the US government shutdown has negatively affected XRP's price. However, positive legislative developments could legitimize XRP as a non-security asset, potentially attracting a broader investor base.
Medium- and Long-Term Outlook
The outlook for XRP remains bullish in the medium to long term, with price targets of $2.5 in 4-8 weeks and $3.0 in 8-12 weeks. Key factors supporting this outlook include:
- Increased utility of XRP.
- Robust demand for XRP-spot ETFs.
- Potential passage of the Market Structure Bill.
Risks to the Bullish Outlook
Several risks could derail the positive outlook, including:
- Hawkish monetary policy from the Bank of Japan.
- Negative US economic indicators affecting Fed rate cut expectations.
- Challenges to the Market Structure Bill.
- Outflows from XRP-spot ETFs.
Technical Analysis
XRP's recent performance shows it trading below key moving averages, indicating a bearish bias. Key technical levels to monitor include:
- Support levels: $1.75 and $1.50.
- Resistance levels: $2.0, $2.5, $3.0, and $3.66.
A breakout above $2.0 could signal a bullish trend reversal, while a sustained break below $1.75 could indicate a bearish trend.
Conclusion
The XRP market is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by BTC trends, legislative developments, and ETF demand. While the short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish, the medium- to long-term prospects are more optimistic, contingent on favorable market conditions and regulatory clarity.