Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Buyers Hold Key Fibonacci Support
Published: February 25, 2026
In the latest analysis of gold prices, the market remains stable near $5,250, maintaining key Fibonacci and moving average support levels. This suggests a potential continuation of the rally towards the target of $5,345, provided that short-term support does not fail.
Near-Term Consolidation and Price Action
Gold has shown minimal movement over the past two days, remaining close to its recent high of $5,250. The market is currently consolidating within a small pennant formation, indicating continued buying pressure. The price is attempting to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $5,141.
Technical Observations and Moving Average Significance
Following a decisive reclaim of both the 10-day and 20-day moving averages above $5,011, there has been no significant pullback to test previous resistance as support. This indicates that buyers are still in control. The absence of a pullback to the prior resistance area suggests short-term strength, with the lowest price over the last three days being $5,091, which barely dipped into Friday’s range.
Upside Targets and Strength Confirmation
Gold is poised for a potential rise from the corrective low of $4,402 observed at the beginning of February. The recent recapture of a higher swing low at $5,119 and the ongoing breakout of a key Fibonacci retracement level point towards an upside target of $5,345. This target remains valid unless support at the moving averages and Friday’s low at $4,982 fails to hold.
Weekly Trend Context
On the weekly timeframe, gold has broken above a three-week high of $5,119, which will confirm the breakout if the week closes above this level. The previous two-week periods ended at record weekly closing highs, indicating strong underlying demand. Although there has been a significant rebound following a 21.4% decline, the demand dynamics will need to be reassessed if the 78.6% upside target is reached.
Conclusion
The analysis suggests that gold is in a consolidation phase, with potential for further upside movement. Traders should monitor key support levels and Fibonacci retracement points to gauge future price action.