Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Geopolitical Tensions Lift Oil, Eyes on $70 Brent
Author: Arslan Ali
Published: July 11, 2025
Market Overview
WTI crude oil has seen a rise above $67 per barrel, recovering from previous losses due to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Red Sea region where attacks on cargo vessels have raised supply concerns. This situation has led to increased risk premiums across energy markets.
At the same time, the market is facing potential deflationary pressures from upcoming U.S. trade tariffs, which could negatively impact global economic activity and fuel demand.
Oil Demand Outlook
OPEC has revised its outlook for global oil demand in 2026, projecting it at 106.3 million barrels per day, a decrease from the previous estimate of 108 million barrels. This adjustment is attributed to slower consumption rates in Asia. Speculation regarding a pause in planned output increases has also contributed to the support for crude oil prices, which are on track for a second consecutive weekly gain.
Natural Gas Price Forecast
Natural gas futures are currently trading near $3.371, having broken above descending channel resistance and the 50-period EMA ($3.326), indicating early bullish momentum. However, the price is facing resistance at $3.471, where the 200-period EMA ($3.518) and a significant horizontal barrier converge.
A confirmed close above $3.471 could signal a breakout from the broader downtrend, potentially leading to targets of $3.573 and $3.673. Conversely, if the price fails to maintain above $3.348, it may retreat towards $3.265 and $3.151, with $3.049 serving as deeper support.
WTI Oil Price Forecast
WTI crude oil is trading around $66.86, having found support near $66.57, which aligns with the lower trendline of an ascending channel and the 200-period EMA. This support level has mitigated recent declines caused by a broader risk-off sentiment and renewed geopolitical tensions. The price remains within a rising channel structure, although momentum appears to be weakening.
The 50-period EMA at $67.24 is acting as a near-term resistance, and a break above this level could push prices towards $67.60, followed by the upper channel edge at $68.77. Conversely, failing to hold above $66.57 may lead to a deeper retracement towards $65.55 and potentially $64.71 if bearish momentum accelerates.
Brent Oil Price Forecast
Brent crude is currently trading near $68.97, remaining within a narrow rising channel after recovering from a recent low of $66.77. However, the upside is capped by the 200-period EMA at $70.30 and the key Fibonacci 0.236 retracement level at $69.97, which continues to act as strong resistance. The price has yet to reclaim the broader downtrend that began from the $80.32 high.
A break above $70.00 would open the door to targets of $71.95 (38.2% Fib) and $73.54 (50% Fib), but failure to clear this barrier could result in a pullback towards $68.49 and $66.77. Both EMAs are sloping downward, indicating subdued momentum and suggesting that traders are cautious ahead of new signals from OPEC+ and shifts in broader risk sentiment. A confirmed close above $70 is necessary to validate a bullish breakout.
Conclusion
The current geopolitical tensions and market dynamics are significantly influencing oil and natural gas prices. Traders are advised to monitor key resistance levels and market sentiment closely as these factors will play a crucial role in determining future price movements.