Venezuela Attack in Focus: Is Risk Aversion About to Spike?
Date: January 5, 2026
Market Highlights
U.S. equities experienced a positive close on the last trading day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 breaking a four-day losing streak. This rebound was largely driven by gains in technology stocks, particularly chipmakers like Nvidia and Intel, as well as Boeing. The Dow increased by 0.66%, while the S&P 500 saw a modest rise of 0.19%. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite dipped slightly by 0.03%.
The U.S. dollar started the year on a strong note, with the U.S. Dollar Index rising by 0.24% to 98.48. This uptick occurred as investors prepared for a week filled with significant economic data that could influence Federal Reserve policy and the overall direction of global markets. The EUR/USD pair fell by 0.25% to 1.1716.
Gold maintained its strong demand, continuing the rally from the previous year, with spot gold prices increasing by 0.37% to $4,329.89 per ounce. Conversely, oil prices declined on the first trading day of 2026, following the largest annual drop since 2020. Investors are weighing concerns over global oversupply against geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine and the situation surrounding Venezuelan exports.
Key Outlook
As markets enter the first full trading week of 2026, renewed geopolitical tensions are in focus following the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. authorities. Investors are expected to closely monitor developments in Venezuela over the weekend, as these could reignite risk-off sentiment. Additionally, key economic data releases from the U.S. and the euro area will be pivotal, especially the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which could significantly impact expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in January.
Key Data and Events
- 17:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence JAN
- 23:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI DEC
Tomorrow:
- 16:55 EU GERMANY Services PMI Final DEC
- 17:00 EU Services PMI Final DEC
- 17:30 GB Services PMI Final DEC
- 21:00 EU GERMANY CPI MoM Prel DEC
- 22:45 US Services PMI Final DEC
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1734/1.1763
Support: 1.1666/1.1644
The EUR/USD pair edged lower as the U.S. dollar strengthened amid rising risk aversion. The price is capped by a descending trendline and the resistance zone of 1.1734–1.1763. Immediate support is found at 1.1666–1.1644, with a break lower potentially leading to further declines.
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3493/1.3534
Support: 1.3399/1.3357
The GBP/USD pair also declined as defensive sentiment favored the U.S. dollar, keeping it below the resistance zone of 1.3490–1.3530. Immediate support lies at 1.3399–1.3357, with a break lower indicating a deeper pullback.
USD/JPY
Resistance: 157.44/157.77
Support: 156.40/156.08
The USD/JPY pair remains elevated near 157, with dollar strength offsetting safe-haven demand for the yen. Immediate support is at 156.40–156.08, while intervention risks keep volatility high.
US Crude Oil Futures
Resistance: 58.18/58.48
Support: 56.90/56.59
WTI crude oil found support after OPEC+ decided to pause output hikes in Q1 2026, although oversupply concerns continue to limit upside potential. Immediate support is at 56.90–56.59, with Venezuelan-related risks adding volatility.
Spot Gold
Resistance: 4444/4477
Support: 4338/4305
Gold prices are supported by heightened geopolitical risks following U.S. actions against Venezuela. Immediate support lies at $4,338–$4,305, with expectations of a Fed rate cut underpinning prices despite volatility.
Dow Futures
Resistance: 48744/49068
Support: 48032/47719
Dow Futures are supported by industrial and cyclical stocks, but profit-taking is emerging near the 49,000 level. The price action suggests hesitation rather than a reversal.
NASDAQ 100
Resistance: 25565/25834
Support: 24741/24401
The NASDAQ 100 continues to lag due to divergences within tech stocks, with valuation concerns weighing on sentiment. The price action favors consolidation rather than a deeper breakdown.
Bitcoin
Resistance: 94,652/95,844
Support: 90,726/89,513
Bitcoin remains range-bound as market indecision persists. Immediate support lies at $90,726–$89,513, with continued mild ETF outflows keeping BTC in consolidation.
Overall, the market is navigating through a complex landscape of geopolitical tensions and economic data, with a focus on how these factors will influence risk sentiment and trading strategies in the coming days.