Market Summary - September 25, 2026
On September 25, 2026, the U.S. stock markets showed resilience with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both up by 0.5%, despite rising Treasury yields reaching levels not seen in 20 years. The European markets also ended positively, with the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 gaining 0.5%.
Economic Data
U.S. durable goods orders remained unchanged, contrary to market expectations of a 0.3% decline, while core durable goods orders increased by 0.3%, falling short of the anticipated 0.6%. This indicates a slowdown in investment demand when excluding volatile categories.
The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment data was mixed but slightly better than expected, with consumer sentiment rising to 48.1 points. One-year inflation expectations were reported at 4.6%, while five-year expectations stood at 3.4%.
Oil Market Update
Oil prices have retreated towards $96 per barrel from previous highs above $100, influenced by Iran's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and that nuclear talks with the U.S. will not resume until Tehran's conditions are met. However, the involvement of technical experts in the negotiations suggests a potential shift towards more detailed discussions.
Treasury Yields
U.S. Treasury yields have surged, with the 10-year yield surpassing 5.2% and the 5-year yield exceeding 5% for the first time since 2007. This increase is attributed to high energy prices, persistent inflation risks, and stronger-than-expected economic data, leading to expectations of continued monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
The recent weaker performance in the 5-year Treasury auction indicates that investors are demanding a higher risk premium, which is raising financing costs across the economy and exerting pressure on the valuations of rate-sensitive assets.
Stock Market Highlights
In the U.S. market, Synopsys shares rose approximately 2% following an upgrade from HSBC, which raised its price target significantly. The bank anticipates fiscal 2027 earnings per share to exceed consensus estimates, driven by increased demand for AI-related tools.
In Europe, BASF's shares fell over 3.5% after it proposed a major merger with Evonik, aimed at consolidating the struggling chemical sector. Airbus shares dropped 1% due to issues with an anti-corrosion coating on A321neo aircraft, while Konecranes gained nearly 7% after announcing a share buyback and raising its guidance.
Other notable performers included Nokia, ASML, and UBS, which saw increases of around 3.3%, 2.1%, and 3%, respectively.
Geopolitical Developments
Former President Trump described his recent meeting with Xi Jinping as a "meeting of friendship, strength, and success," with plans for further discussions in China in November. Trump reportedly urged Xi to cease support for Tehran in its ongoing tensions with the U.S.
Market Outlook
As the Nasdaq 100 futures attempt to build bullish momentum ahead of the U.S. earnings season, the RSI on the hourly timeframe remains near neutral levels, indicating potential for further movement as the market approaches this critical period.