EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: All Eyes on NFP
By Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
Date: 08/02/2026
Market Overview
The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a decline for the second consecutive week, despite a rebound from a significant technical support zone. The upcoming US jobs report, scheduled for release on Wednesday, is expected to heavily influence the outlook for the pair in the coming week.
Dollar Rally Analysis
Last week, the US dollar gained strength primarily due to a risk-off sentiment that negatively impacted stocks, cryptocurrencies, and metals. However, a resurgence of dip buyers on Friday allowed the dollar to react positively to some weaker labor market data released earlier in the week.
Expectations for the Upcoming Week
The recent re-pricing of US interest rates has softened the dollar's defensive rally, potentially leaving it vulnerable ahead of the jobs data release. Analysts expect around 70,000 jobs to be reported. If the data falls short of expectations, the EUR/USD could rise towards the $1.20 mark, especially since the European Central Bank (ECB) appears comfortable with the current exchange rate.
Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD formed a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart, finding support in the 1.1750–1.1765 range, which was previously a resistance level. This area marks a breakout point from late January. Additionally, the price is supported by the 21-day exponential moving average, which is trending upwards and remains above the 200-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend.
Furthermore, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is positioned around 1.1770, providing additional technical support. This level is derived from the January low of 1.1578 to the late-month high of 1.2083.
Key Levels to Watch
For the upcoming week, initial resistance is identified at the 1.1835 level, which corresponds to the low of a previous inverted hammer candle. A break above this level could indicate a loss of control by sellers and potentially trigger a short squeeze, leading to a sharper upward movement.
Further resistance levels are noted around 1.1900–1.1920, with the psychological target of 1.2000 and this year’s high at 1.2083 following that. Conversely, if the support zone between 1.1750 and 1.1770 is breached, the price may decline towards the 200-day moving average at approximately 1.1625, with minimal support until reaching the 1.1500 level.
Conclusion
The technical outlook for the EUR/USD remains bullish, with the price maintaining above key moving averages and a structure of higher highs and higher lows. However, the direction of the next major move is likely to be influenced by the upcoming jobs report, which could significantly impact the US dollar's trajectory.