Gold and Silver Price Forecast: Tariffs and Safe-Haven Demand

Published: July 14, 2025

Market Overview

Gold prices are currently hovering around $3,355, driven by renewed trade tensions and rising geopolitical risks that have increased demand for safe-haven assets. This price movement occurs despite a stronger U.S. dollar, which saw the Dollar Index (DXY) gain 0.87% last week, marking its best weekly performance since February 2025.

Impact of U.S. Trade Policy

The uptick in gold prices follows a significant shift in U.S. trade policy, with President Donald Trump announcing a 35% tariff on Canadian imports. This has reignited fears of a global trade war, compounded by additional tariffs on Brazilian goods and warnings of further penalties for BRICS-aligned countries. According to Priya Jain, a commodities strategist at Morgan Crest, these tariffs indicate a move towards economic nationalism, prompting the market to seek protection in hard assets.

Federal Reserve's Stance

The Federal Reserve remains committed to its current monetary policy despite political pressures. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized that the Fed will not alter its policy to accommodate government debt servicing costs, noting that the tariffs have increased uncertainty in the economic outlook.

Key Economic Data

Upcoming economic data could influence the Fed's tone, including:

• June CPI YoY: Expected at 2.6% (previous: 2.4%)
• Core CPI YoY: Forecast at 2.8%
• Retail Sales MoM: Projected at 0% (previous: -0.9%)
• Initial Jobless Claims: Estimated at 225K (previous: 227K)

Silver Market Performance

Silver has also seen gains, increasing 3.5% for the week and outperforming gold as traders look for inflation hedges amid weakening retail data and expanding tariffs. Futures markets are pricing in 49 basis points of cuts in 2025, making metals a favored shield against policy risk and currency volatility.

Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Gold is trading around $3,355 after breaking out of a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating potential trend continuation. Immediate resistance levels are at $3,365 and $3,396. A close above $3,365 could lead to further gains towards $3,419 and $3,447. Support levels are at $3,332, $3,309, and $3,283.

Silver (XAG/USD) Analysis

Silver surged to $38.54 before showing signs of exhaustion, currently trading around $38.40. Immediate resistance is at $38.54, with potential pullbacks towards $38.00, $37.67, and $37.41 if it fails to maintain above the resistance level. Upside continuation requires a break above $38.54.

Conclusion

The current market dynamics, driven by geopolitical tensions and U.S. trade policies, are creating a favorable environment for gold and silver as safe-haven assets. Traders are advised to monitor economic indicators closely as they may influence future price movements.